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- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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- O'Mara, TA, et al.
(författare)
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Identification of nine new susceptibility loci for endometrial cancer
- 2018
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Ingår i: Nature communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 9:1, s. 3166-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Endometrial cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer of the female reproductive tract in developed countries. Through genome-wide association studies (GWAS), we have previously identified eight risk loci for endometrial cancer. Here, we present an expanded meta-analysis of 12,906 endometrial cancer cases and 108,979 controls (including new genotype data for 5624 cases) and identify nine novel genome-wide significant loci, including a locus on 12q24.12 previously identified by meta-GWAS of endometrial and colorectal cancer. At five loci, expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) analyses identify candidate causal genes; risk alleles at two of these loci associate with decreased expression of genes, which encode negative regulators of oncogenic signal transduction proteins (SH2B3 (12q24.12) and NF1 (17q11.2)). In summary, this study has doubled the number of known endometrial cancer risk loci and revealed candidate causal genes for future study.
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- Sarwar, Nadeem, et al.
(författare)
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Interleukin-6 receptor pathways in coronary heart disease : a collaborative meta-analysis of 82 studies
- 2012
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - New York, NY, USA : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 379:9822, s. 1205-1213
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Persistent inflammation has been proposed to contribute to various stages in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular disease. Interleukin-6 receptor (IL6R) signalling propagates downstream inflammation cascades. To assess whether this pathway is causally relevant to coronary heart disease, we studied a functional genetic variant known to affect IL6R signalling. Methods: In a collaborative meta-analysis, we studied Asp358Ala (rs2228145) in IL6R in relation to a panel of conventional risk factors and inflammation biomarkers in 125 222 participants. We also compared the frequency of Asp358Ala in 51 441 patients with coronary heart disease and in 136 226 controls. To gain insight into possible mechanisms, we assessed Asp358Ala in relation to localised gene expression and to postlipopolysaccharide stimulation of interleukin 6. Findings: The minor allele frequency of Asp358Ala was 39%. Asp358Ala was not associated with lipid concentrations, blood pressure, adiposity, dysglycaemia, or smoking (p value for association per minor allele >= 0.04 for each). By contrast, for every copy of 358Ala inherited, mean concentration of IL6R increased by 34.3% (95% CI 30.4-38.2) and of interleukin 6 by 14.6% (10.7-18.4), and mean concentration of C-reactive protein was reduced by 7.5% (5.9-9.1) and of fibrinogen by 1.0% (0.7-1.3). For every copy of 358Ala inherited, risk of coronary heart disease was reduced by 3.4% (1.8-5.0). Asp358Ala was not related to IL6R mRNA levels or interleukin-6 production in monocytes. Interpretation: Large-scale human genetic and biomarker data are consistent with a causal association between IL6R-related pathways and coronary heart disease.
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- O'Connor, U, et al.
(författare)
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Feasibility study of computational occupational dosimetry : evaluating a proof-of-concept in an endovascular and interventional cardiology setting
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of Radiological Protection. - : IOP Publishing. - 1361-6498 .- 0952-4746. ; 42:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Individual monitoring of radiation workers is essential to ensure compliance with legal dose limits and to ensure that doses are As Low As Reasonably Achievable. However, large uncertainties still exist in personal dosimetry and there are issues with compliance and incorrect wearing of dosimeters. The objective of the PODIUM (Personal Online Dosimetry Using Computational Methods) project was to improve personal dosimetry by an innovative approach: the development of an online dosimetry application based on computer simulations without the use of physical dosimeters. Occupational doses were calculated based on the use of camera tracking devices, flexible individualised phantoms and data from the radiation source. When combined with fast Monte Carlo simulation codes, the aim was to perform personal dosimetry in real-time. A key component of the PODIUM project was to assess and validate the methodology in interventional radiology workplaces where improvements in dosimetry are needed. This paper describes the feasibility of implementing the PODIUM approach in a clinical setting. Validation was carried out using dosimeters worn by Vascular Surgeons and Interventional Cardiologists during patient procedures at a hospital in Ireland. Our preliminary results from this feasibility study show acceptable differences of the order of 40% between calculated and measured staff doses, in terms of the personal dose equivalent quantity Hp(10), however there is a greater deviation for more complex cases and improvements are needed. The challenges of using the system in busy interventional rooms have informed the future needs and applicability of PODIUM. The availability of an online personal dosimetry application has the potential to overcome problems that arise from the use of current dosimeters. In addition, it should increase awareness of radiation protection among staff. Some limitations remain and a second phase of development would be required to bring the PODIUM method into operation in a hospital setting. However, an early prototype system has been tested in a clinical setting and the results from this two-year proof-of-concept PODIUM project are very promising for future development.
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| 10. |
- O Gorman, Eamon, 1984, et al.
(författare)
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ALMA and VLA reveal the lukewarm chromospheres of the nearby red supergiants Antares and Betelgeuse
- 2020
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 638
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We first present spatially resolved ALMA and VLA continuum observations of the early-M red supergiant Antares to search for the presence of a chromosphere at radio wavelengths. We resolve the free-free emission of the Antares atmosphere at 11 unique wavelengths between 0.7 mm (ALMA band 8) and 10 cm (VLA S band). The projected angular diameter is found to continually increase with increasing wavelength, from a low of 50.7 mas at 0.7 mm up to a diameter of 431 mas at 10 cm, which corresponds to 1.35 and 11.6 times the photospheric angular diameter, respectively. All four ALMA measurements show that the shape of the atmosphere is elongated, with a flattening of 15% at a similar position angle. The disk-averaged gas temperature of the atmosphere initially rises from a value of 2700 K at 1.35 R∗ (i.e., 0.35 R∗ above the photosphere) to a peak value of 3800 K at ∼2.5 R∗, after which it then more gradually decreases to 1650 K at 11.6 R∗. The rise in gas temperature between 1.35 R∗ and ∼2.5 R∗ is evidence for a chromospheric temperature rise above the photosphere of a red supergiant. We detect a clear change in the spectral index across the sampled wavelength range, with the flux density Sν ν1.42 between 0.7 mm and 1.4 cm, which we associate with chromosphere-dominated emission, while the flux density Sν ν0.8 between 4.3 cm and 10 cm, which we associate with wind-dominated emission. We show that the Antares MOLsphere is transparent at our observed wavelengths, and the lukewarm chromosphere that we detect is therefore real and not just an average of the cool MOLsphere and hot ultraviolet emitting gas. We then perform nonlocal thermal equilibrium modeling of the far-ultraviolet radiation field of another early-M red supergiant, Betelgeuse, and find that an additional hot (i.e., > 7000 K) chromospheric photoionization component with a much smaller filling factor must also exist throughout the chromospheres of these stars.
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