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- Hagström, Hannes, et al.
(författare)
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Fibrosis stage but not NASH predicts mortality and time to development of severe liver disease in biopsy-proven NAFLD
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of Hepatology. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV. - 0168-8278 .- 1600-0641. ; 67:6, s. 1265-1273
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background amp; Aims: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is very common in the general population, but identifying patients with increased risk of mortality and liver-specific morbidity remains a challenge. Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is thought to enhance this risk; therefore, resolution of NASH is a major endpoint in current pharmacologic studies. Herein, we aim to investigate the long-term prognosis of a large cohort of NAFLD patients, and to study the specific effect of NASH and fibrosis stage on prognosis. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 646 biopsy-proven NAFLD patients. Each case was matched for age, sex and municipality to ten controls. Outcomes on mortality and severe liver disease, defined as cirrhosis, liver decompensation/failure or hepatocellular carcinoma, were evaluated using population-based registers. Cox regression models adjusted for age, sex and type 2 diabetes were used to examine the long-term risk according to fibrosis stage. Likelihood ratio tests were used to assess whether adding NASH to these models increased the predictive capacity. Laplace regression was used to estimate the time to severe liver disease according to stage of fibrosis. Results: During a follow-up of mean 20 years (range 0-40) equivalent to 139,163 person-years, 12% of NAFLD patients and 2.2% of controls developed severe liver disease (p amp;lt; 0.001). Compared to controls, the risk of severe liver disease increased per stage of fibrosis (hazard ratio ranging from 1.9 in F0 to 104.9 in F4). Accounting for the presence of NASH did not change these estimates significantly (likelihood ratio test amp;gt; 0.05 for all stages of fibrosis). Similar results were seen for overall mortality. The lower end of the 95% confidence interval for the 10th percentile of time to development of severe liver disease was 22-26 years in F0-1, 9.3 years in F2, 2.3 years in F3, and 0.9 years to liver decompensation in F4. Conclusions: In this, the largest ever study of biopsy-proven NAFLD, the presence of NASH did not increase the risk of liver-specific morbidity or overall mortality. Knowledge of time to development of severe liver disease according to fibrosis stage can be used in individual patient counselling and for public health decisions. (C) 2017 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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- Hagström, Hannes, et al.
(författare)
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SAF score and mortality in NAFLD after up to 41 years of follow-up
- 2017
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Ingår i: Scandinavian Journal of Gastroenterology. - : TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD. - 0036-5521 .- 1502-7708. ; 52:1, s. 87-91
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background and aims: A new score for the histological severity of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), called SAF (Steatosis, Activity and Fibrosis) has been developed. We aimed to evaluate the impact of this score on overall mortality. Methods: We used data from 139 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD. All biopsies were graded according to the SAF scoring system and disease severity was classified as mild, moderate or severe. Causes of death were extracted from a national, population-based register. A Cox regression model, adjusted for sex, body mass index (BMI) and diabetes mellitus type 2, was applied. Results: At baseline 35 patients presented with mild or moderate disease respectively, and 69 patients with severe disease. During follow-up (median 25.3 years, range 1.7-40.8) 74 patients died, 11 in the mild group (31%), 18 in the moderate group (51%) and 45 in the severe group (65%), p=.002. Compared to patients with mild disease, patients with moderate disease did not have a significant increase in overall mortality (HR 1.83, 95% CI 0.89-3.77, p=.10). Patients with severe disease had a significant increase in mortality (HR 2.65, 95% CI 1.19-5.93, p=.017). However, when adjusting for fibrosis stage, significance was lost (HR 1.85, 95% CI 0.76-4.54, p=.18). NASH, defined as per the FLIP algorithm, was not associated with mortality compared to not having NASH (HR 1.46, 95% CI 0.74-2.90, p=.28). Conclusions: After adjustment for fibrosis, the SAF score was not associated with increased mortality in NAFLD. This finding should be corroborated in larger cohorts with similar follow-up time.
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- Lykiardopoulos, Byron, et al.
(författare)
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Development of Serum Marker Models to Increase Diagnostic Accuracy of Advanced Fibrosis in Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: The New LINKI Algorithm Compared with Established Algorithms
- 2016
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE. - 1932-6203. ; 11:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background and Aim Detection of advanced fibrosis (F3-F4) in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is important for ascertaining prognosis. Serum markers have been proposed as alternatives to biopsy. We attempted to develop a novel algorithm for detection of advanced fibrosis based on a more efficient combination of serological markers and to compare this with established algorithms. Methods We included 158 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD. Of these, 38 had advanced fibrosis. The following fibrosis algorithms were calculated: NAFLD fibrosis score, BARD, NIKEI, NASH-CRN regression score, APRI, FIB-4, Kings score, GUCI, Lok index, Forns score, and ELF. Study population was randomly divided in a training and a validation group. A multiple logistic regression analysis using bootstrapping methods was applied to the training group. Among many variables analyzed age, fasting glucose, hyaluronic acid and AST were included, and a model (LINKI-1) for predicting advanced fibrosis was created. Moreover, these variables were combined with platelet count in a mathematical way exaggerating the opposing effects, and alternative models (LINKI-2) were also created. Models were compared using area under the receiver operator characteristic curves (AUROC). Results Of established algorithms FIB-4 and Kings score had the best diagnostic accuracy with AUROCs 0.84 and 0.83, respectively. Higher accuracy was achieved with the novel LINKI algorithms. AUROCs in the total cohort for LINKI-1 was 0.91 and for LINKI-2 models 0.89. Conclusion The LINKI algorithms for detection of advanced fibrosis in NAFLD showed better accuracy than established algorithms and should be validated in further studies including larger cohorts.
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