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| 3. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 5. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 7. |
- Osborn, H. P., et al.
(författare)
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Two warm Neptunes transiting HIP 9618 revealed by TESS and Cheops
- 2023
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Ingår i: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 523:2, s. 3069-3089
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- HIP 9618 (HD 12572, TOI-1471, TIC 306263608) is a bright (G = 9.0 mag) solar analogue. TESS photometry revealed the star to have two candidate planets with radii of 3.9 ± 0.044 R (HIP 9618 b) and 3.343 ± 0.039 R (HIP 9618 c). While the 20.77291 d period of HIP 9618 b was measured unambiguously, HIP 9618 c showed only two transits separated by a 680-d gap in the time series, leaving many possibilities for the period. To solve this issue, CHEOPS performed targeted photometry of period aliases to attempt to recover the true period of planet c, and successfully determined the true period to be 52.56349 d. High-resolution spectroscopy with HARPS-N, SOPHIE, and CAFE revealed a mass of 10.0 ± 3.1M for HIP 9618 b, which, according to our interior structure models, corresponds to a 6.8 ± 1.4 per cent gas fraction. HIP 9618 c appears to have a lower mass than HIP 9618 b, with a 3-sigma upper limit of <18M. Follow-up and archival RV measurements also reveal a clear long-term trend which, when combined with imaging and astrometric information, reveal a low-mass companion (0.08+−000512M☉) orbiting at 26.0+−111900 au. This detection makes HIP 9618 one of only five bright (K < 8 mag) transiting multiplanet systems known to host a planet with P > 50 d, opening the door for the atmospheric characterization of warm (Teq < 750 K) sub-Neptunes.
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| 8. |
- Serrano, L. M., et al.
(författare)
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The HD 93963 A transiting system: A 1.04d super-Earth and a 3.65 d sub-Neptune discovered by TESS and CHEOPS
- 2022
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 667
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present the discovery of two small planets transiting HD 93963A (TOI-1797), a GOV star (M-* = 1.109 +/- 0.043M(circle dot), R-* = 1.043 +/- 0.009 R-circle dot) in a visual binary system. We combined TESS and CHEOPS space-borne photometry with MuSCAT 2 ground-based photometry, 'Alopeke and PHARO high-resolution imaging, TRES and FIES reconnaissance spectroscopy, and SOPHIE radial velocity measurements. We validated and spectroscopically confirmed the outer transiting planet HD 93963 A c, a sub-Neptune with an orbital period of P-c approximate to 3.65 d that was reported to be a TESS object of interest (TOI) shortly after the release of Sector 22 data. HD 93963 A c has amass of M-c = 19.2 +/- 4.1 M-circle plus and a radius of R-c = 3.228 +/- 0.059 R-circle plus, implying a mean density of rho(c) = 3.1 +/- 0.7 g cm(-3). The inner object, HD 93963 A b, is a validated 1.04 d ultra-short period (USP) transiting super-Earth that we discovered in the TESS light curve and that was not listed as a TOI, owing to the low significance of its signal (TESS signal-to-noise ratio approximate to 6.7, TESS + CHEOPS combined transit depth D-b = 141.5(-8.3)(+8.5) ppm). We intensively monitored the star with CHEOPS by performing nine transit observations to confirm the presence of the inner planet and validate the system. HD 93963 A b is the first small (R-b = 1.35 +/- 0.042 R-circle plus) USP planet discovered and validated by TESS and CHEOPS. Unlike planet c, HD 93963 Ab is not significantly detected in our radial velocities (M-b = 7.8 +/- 3.2 M-circle plus). The two planets are on either side of the radius valley, implying that they could have undergone completely different evolution processes. We also discovered a linear trend in our Doppler measurements, suggesting the possible presence of a long-period outer planet. With a V-band magnitude of 9.2, HD 93963 A is among the brightest stars known to host a USP planet, making it one of the most favourable targets for precise mass measurement via Doppler spectroscopy and an important laboratory to test formation, evolution, and migration models of planetary systems hosting ultra-short period planets.
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| 9. |
- Sebastian, D., et al.
(författare)
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The EBLM project - IX. Five fully convective M-dwarfs, precisely measured with CHEOPS and TESS light curves
- 2023
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Ingår i: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 519:3, s. 3546-3563
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Eclipsing binaries are important benchmark objects to test and calibrate stellar structure and evolution models. This is especially true for binaries with a fully convective M-dwarf component for which direct measurements of these stars' masses and radii are difficult using other techniques. Within the potential of M-dwarfs to be exoplanet host stars, the accuracy of theoretical predictions of their radius and effective temperature as a function of their mass is an active topic of discussion. Not only the parameters of transiting exoplanets but also the success of future atmospheric characterization relies on accurate theoretical predictions. We present the analysis of five eclipsing binaries with low-mass stellar companions out of a subsample of 23, for which we obtained ultra-high-precision light curves using the CHEOPS satellite. The observation of their primary and secondary eclipses are combined with spectroscopic measurements to precisely model the primary parameters and derive the M-dwarfs mass, radius, surface gravity, and effective temperature estimates using the PYCHEOPS data analysis software. Combining these results to the same set of parameters derived from TESS light curves, we find very good agreement (better than 1 percent for radius and better than 0.2 percent for surface gravity). We also analyse the importance of precise orbits from radial velocity measurements and find them to be crucial to derive M-dwarf radii in a regime below 5 percent accuracy. These results add five valuable data points to the mass-radius diagram of fully convective M-dwarfs.
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| 10. |
- Swayne, M.I., et al.
(författare)
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The EBLM Project– XI. Mass, radius, and effective temperature measurements for 23 M-dwarf companions to solar-type stars observed with CHEOPS
- 2024
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Ingår i: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 528:4, s. 5703-5722
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Observations of low-mass stars have frequently shown a disagreement between observed stellar radii and radii predicted by theoretical stellar structure models. This ‘radius inflation’ problem could have an impact on both stellar and exoplanetary science. We present the final results of our observation programme with the CHaracterising ExOPlanet Satellite (CHEOPS) to obtain high-precision light curves of eclipsing binaries with low-mass stellar companions (EBLMs). Combined with the spectroscopic orbits of the solar-type companions, we can derive the masses, radii, and effective temperatures of 23 M-dwarf stars. We use the PYCHEOPS data analysis software to analyse their primary and secondary occultations. For all but one target, we also perform analyses with Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) light curves for comparison. We have assessed the impact of starspot-induced variation on our derived parameters and account for this in our radius and effective temperature uncertainties using simulated light curves. We observe trends in inflation with both metallicity and orbital separation. We also observe a strong trend in the difference between theoretical and observational effective temperatures with metallicity. There is no such trend with orbital separation. These results are not consistent with the idea that the observed inflation in stellar radius combines with lower effective temperature to preserve the luminosity predicted by low-mass stellar models. Our EBLM systems provide high-quality and homogeneous measurements that can be used in further studies of radius inflation.
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