| 1. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 2. |
- Hidaka, Akihisa, et al.
(författare)
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Family history of cancer and subsequent risk of cancer : A large-scale population-based prospective study in Japan
- 2020
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Ingår i: International Journal of Cancer. - : Wiley. - 0020-7136 .- 1097-0215. ; 147:2, s. 331-337
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Family history (FH) of cancer is an important factor of increased risk of several cancers. Although the association between FH of cancer and concordant cancer risk has been reported in many previous epidemiological studies, no comprehensive prospective study with adjustment for lifestyle habits has evaluated the association of FH of cancer and concordant cancer risk. We investigated the association between FH of cancer and concordant cancer risk in a Japanese population-based prospective study, initiated in 1990 for cohort I and in 1993 for cohort II. We analyzed data on 103,707 eligible subjects without a history of cancer who responded to a self-administered questionnaire including FH of cancer at baseline. Study subjects were followed through 2012 and analyzed using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression models. During 1,802,581 person-years of follow-up, a total of 16,336 newly diagnosed cancers were identified. Any site (Hazard ratios = 1.11 (95% confidence interval = 1.07-1.15]), esophagus (2.11 [1.00-4.45]), stomach (1.36 [1.19-1.55]), liver (1.69 [1.10-2.61]), pancreas (2.63 [1.45-4.79]), lung (1.51 [1.14-2.00]), uterus (1.93 [1.06-3.51]) and bladder cancers (6.06 [2.49-14.74]) with FH of the concordant cancer were associated with an increased risk compared to those without FH. Our findings suggest that having FH of cancer is associated with an increased risk of several concordant cancer incidences in an Asian population. Enquiring about FH of several types of cancer may be important in identifying groups at high-risk of those cancers.
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| 3. |
- Jung, Seungyoun, et al.
(författare)
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Alcohol consumption and breast cancer risk by estrogen receptor status : in a pooled analysis of 20 studies.
- 2016
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Ingår i: International Journal of Epidemiology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0300-5771 .- 1464-3685. ; 45:3, s. 916-928
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Breast cancer aetiology may differ by estrogen receptor (ER) status. Associations of alcohol and folate intakes with risk of breast cancer defined by ER status were examined in pooled analyses of the primary data from 20 cohorts.METHODS: During a maximum of 6-18 years of follow-up of 1 089 273 women, 21 624 ER+ and 5113 ER- breast cancers were identified. Study-specific multivariable relative risks (RRs) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression models and then combined using a random-effects model.RESULTS: Alcohol consumption was positively associated with risk of ER+ and ER- breast cancer. The pooled multivariable RRs (95% confidence intervals) comparing ≥ 30 g/d with 0 g/day of alcohol consumption were 1.35 (1.23-1.48) for ER+ and 1.28 (1.10-1.49) for ER- breast cancer (Ptrend ≤ 0.001; Pcommon-effects by ER status: 0.57). Associations were similar for alcohol intake from beer, wine and liquor. The associations with alcohol intake did not vary significantly by total (from foods and supplements) folate intake (Pinteraction ≥ 0.26). Dietary (from foods only) and total folate intakes were not associated with risk of overall, ER+ and ER- breast cancer; pooled multivariable RRs ranged from 0.98 to 1.02 comparing extreme quintiles. Following-up US studies through only the period before mandatory folic acid fortification did not change the results. The alcohol and folate associations did not vary by tumour subtypes defined by progesterone receptor status.CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol consumption was positively associated with risk of both ER+ and ER- breast cancer, even among women with high folate intake. Folate intake was not associated with breast cancer risk.
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| 4. |
- Jung, Seungyoun, et al.
(författare)
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Fruit and Vegetable Intake and Risk of Breast Cancer by Hormone Receptor Status
- 2013
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Ingår i: Journal of the National Cancer Institute. - : Oxford University Press (OUP): Policy B1. - 0027-8874 .- 1460-2105. ; 105:3, s. 219-236
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Estrogen receptornegative (ER) breast cancer has few known or modifiable risk factors. Because ER tumors account for only 15% to 20% of breast cancers, large pooled analyses are necessary to evaluate precisely the suspected inverse association between fruit and vegetable intake and risk of ER breast cancer. less thanbrgreater than less thanbrgreater thanAmong 993 466 women followed for 11 to 20 years in 20 cohort studies, we documented 19 869 estrogen receptor positive (ER) and 4821 ER breast cancers. We calculated study-specific multivariable relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using Cox proportional hazards regression analyses and then combined them using a random-effects model. All statistical tests were two-sided. less thanbrgreater than less thanbrgreater thanTotal fruit and vegetable intake was statistically significantly inversely associated with risk of ER breast cancer but not with risk of breast cancer overall or of ER tumors. The inverse association for ER tumors was observed primarily for vegetable consumption. The pooled relative risks comparing the highest vs lowest quintile of total vegetable consumption were 0.82 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.90) for ER breast cancer and 1.04 (95% CI 0.97 to 1.11) for ER breast cancer (Pcommon-effects by ER status andlt; .001). Total fruit consumption was non-statistically significantly associated with risk of ER breast cancer (pooled multivariable RR comparing the highest vs lowest quintile 0.94, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.04). less thanbrgreater than less thanbrgreater thanWe observed no association between total fruit and vegetable intake and risk of overall breast cancer. However, vegetable consumption was inversely associated with risk of ER breast cancer in our large pooled analyses.
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| 5. |
- Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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| 6. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 7. |
- Stickley, Andrew, et al.
(författare)
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Birthdays are associated with an increased risk of suicide in Japan : Evidence from 27,007 deaths in Tokyo in 2001-2010
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of Affective Disorders. - : Elsevier BV. - 0165-0327 .- 1573-2517. ; 200, s. 259-265
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Previous research has produced conflicting findings concerning whether birthdays are associated with an increased risk of suicide. This study examined the association in Tokyo, Japan. Methods: Suicide data (ICD-10 codes X60-X84) for the period 2001-2010 were obtained from the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. A time-stratified case-crossover design was used with conditional logistic regression analysis being performed to estimate within-subject birthday exposures' while controlling for meteorological conditions and public holidays. Results: There were 27,007 suicides in the study period. For males the 5 days before the birthday and the week after the birthday were associated with significantly higher odds for suicide with the odds ratio being highest on the actual birthday (OR =1.677, 95% CI: 1.294, 2.172). For females, significantly higher odds for completed suicide were observed 7-11 days before the birthday. Stratified analyses showed different at risk time patterns among men from different age groups, and that married men had higher odds for suicide on, and for the 4 days before and in the 2 weeks after their birthday. Limitations: We lacked detailed information on suicides which would have enabled a better understanding of the observed associations. Conclusions: Birthdays are associated with an increased risk for suicide in Tokyo, Japan. Health professionals who work with individuals at risk of suicide should be made aware that birthdays are associated with an elevated suicide risk. This information should also be communicated in wider suicide prevention campaigns.
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| 8. |
- Svensson, Thomas, et al.
(författare)
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Association of Sleep Duration with All- And Major-Cause Mortality among Adults in Japan, China, Singapore, and Korea
- 2021
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Ingår i: JAMA Network Open. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2574-3805. ; 4:9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Importance: The association between long sleep duration and mortality appears stronger in East Asian populations than in North American or European populations. Objectives: To assess the sex-specific association between sleep duration and all-cause and major-cause mortality in a pooled longitudinal cohort and to stratify the association by age and body mass index. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study of individual-level data from 9 cohorts in the Asia Cohort Consortium was performed from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2002. The final population included participants from Japan, China, Singapore, and Korea. Mean (SD) follow-up time was 14.0 (5.0) years for men and 13.4 (5.3) years for women. Data analysis was performed from August 1, 2018, to May 31, 2021. Exposures: Self-reported sleep duration, with 7 hours as the reference category. Main Outcomes and Measures: Mortality, including deaths from all causes, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and other causes. Sex-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression with shared frailty models adjusted for age and the key self-reported covariates of marital status, body mass index, smoking status, alcohol consumption, physical activity, history of diabetes and hypertension, and menopausal status (for women). Results: For 322721 participants (mean [SD] age, 54.5 [9.2] years; 178542 [55.3%] female), 19419 deaths occurred among men (mean [SD] age of men, 53.6 [9.0] years) and 13768 deaths among women (mean [SD] age of women, 55.3 [9.2] years). A sleep duration of 7 hours was the nadir for associations with all-cause, cardiovascular disease, and other-cause mortality in both men and women, whereas 8 hours was the mode sleep duration among men and the second most common sleep duration among women. The association between sleep duration and all-cause mortality was J-shaped for both men and women. The greatest association for all-cause mortality was with sleep durations of 10 hours or longer for both men (hazard ratio [HR], 1.34; 95% CI, 1.26-1.44) and women (HR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.36-1.61). Sex was a significant modifier of the association between sleep duration and mortality from cardiovascular disease (χ25= 13.47, P =.02), cancer (χ25= 16.04, P =.007), and other causes (χ25= 12.79, P =.03). Age was a significant modifier of the associations among men only (all-cause mortality: χ25= 41.49, P <.001; cancer: χ25= 27.94, P <.001; other-cause mortality: χ25= 24.51, P <.001). Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cohort study suggest that sleep duration is a behavioral risk factor for mortality in both men and women. Age was a modifier of the association between sleep duration in men but not in women. Sleep duration recommendations in these populations may need to be considered in the context of sex and age.
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| 9. |
- Svensson, T, et al.
(författare)
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High serum total cholesterol is associated with suicide mortality in Japanese women
- 2017
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Ingår i: Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica. - : Wiley. - 1600-0447 .- 0001-690X. ; 136:3, s. 259-268
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between serum total cholesterol (TC) and suicide using a large general population cohort with long follow-up times.METHOD: Analyses included 16 341 men and 28 905 women aged 40-69 from the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study followed from 1990 to 2012. TC levels were defined per clinical guidelines: low (<4.66 mmol/l [180 mg/dl]), normal (4.66-5.70 mmol/l [180-220 mg/dl]), and high (≥5.70 mmol/l [220 mg/dl]). Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to determine hazard ratios (HR) and confidence intervals (CI) for suicide according to TC level. Mean follow-up time was 19 years for men and 20 years for women.RESULTS: There were 185 suicides (men: 107; women: 78) during follow-up. Compared to women with normal TC, women with high TC had a significantly increased risk of suicide (HR = 1.90, 95% CI, 1.13-3.19). Incremental increases (0.26 mmol/l [10 mg/dl]) of low-density lipoprotein (HR = 1.11, 95% CI, 1.02-1.21) and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HR = 1.09, 95% CI, 1.01-1.18) were also associated with increased risk of suicide in women. There was no association between TC levels, or lipid fractions, and suicide in men.CONCLUSION: High TC levels may be associated with an increased risk of suicide in women.
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| 10. |
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