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- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(författare)
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World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Global Health. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-109X. ; 7:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 2. |
- Ishizaki, Takahiro, et al.
(författare)
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CRISPR/Cas9 and genetic screens in malaria parasites : small genomes, big impact
- 2022
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Ingår i: Biochemical Society Transactions. - : Portland Press. - 0300-5127 .- 1470-8752. ; 50:3, s. 1069-1079
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The ∼30 Mb genomes of the Plasmodium parasites that cause malaria each encode ∼5000 genes, but the functions of the majority remain unknown. This is due to a paucity of functional annotation from sequence homology, which is compounded by low genetic tractability compared with many model organisms. In recent years technical breakthroughs have made forward and reverse genome-scale screens in Plasmodium possible. Furthermore, the adaptation of Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats (CRISPR) and CRISPR-Associated protein 9 (CRISPR/Cas9) technology has dramatically improved gene editing efficiency at the single gene level. Here, we review the arrival of genetic screens in malaria parasites to analyse parasite gene function at a genome-scale and their impact on understanding parasite biology. CRISPR/Cas9 screens, which have revolutionised human and model organism research, have not yet been implemented in malaria parasites due to the need for more complex CRISPR/Cas9 gene targeting vector libraries. We therefore introduce the reader to CRISPR-based screens in the related apicomplexan Toxoplasma gondii and discuss how these approaches could be adapted to develop CRISPR/Cas9 based genome-scale genetic screens in malaria parasites. Moreover, since more than half of Plasmodium genes are required for normal asexual blood-stage reproduction, and cannot be targeted using knockout methods, we discuss how CRISPR/Cas9 could be used to scale up conditional gene knockdown approaches to systematically assign function to essential genes.
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