| 1. |
- Mace, Georgina M., et al.
(författare)
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Approaches to defining a planetary boundary for biodiversity
- 2014
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Ingår i: Global Environmental Change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0959-3780 .- 1872-9495. ; 28, s. 289-297
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The idea that there is an identifiable set of boundaries, beyond which anthropogenic change will put the Earth system outside a safe operating space for humanity, is attracting interest in the scientific community and gaining support in the environmental policy world. Rockstrom et al. (2009) identify nine such boundaries and highlight biodiversity loss as being the single boundary where current rates of extinction put the Earth system furthest outside the safe operating space. Here we review the evidence to support a boundary based on extinction rates and identify weaknesses with this metric and its bearing on humanity's needs. While changes to biodiversity are of undisputed importance, we show that both extinction rate and species richness are weak metrics for this purpose, and they do not scale well from local to regional or global levels. We develop alternative approaches to determine biodiversity loss boundaries and extend our analysis to consider large-scale responses in the Earth system that could affect its suitability for complex human societies which in turn are mediated by the biosphere. We suggest three facets of biodiversity on which a boundary could be based: the genetic library of life; functional type diversity; and biome condition and extent. For each of these we explore the science needed to indicate how it might be measured and how changes would affect human societies. In addition to these three facets, we show how biodiversity's role in supporting a safe operating space for humanity may lie primarily in its interactions with other boundaries, suggesting an immediate area of focus for scientists and policymakers.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Jennings, Anne E., et al.
(författare)
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Baffin Bay paleoenvironments in the LGM and HS1 : Resolving the ice-shelf question
- 2018
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Ingår i: Marine Geology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0025-3227 .- 1872-6151. ; 402, s. 5-16
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Core HU2008029-12PC from the Disko trough mouth fan on the central West Greenland continental slope is used to test whether an ice shelf covered Baffin Bay during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and at the onset of the deglaciation. We use benthic and planktic foraminiferal assemblages, stable isotope analysis of planktic forams, algal biomarkers, ice-rafted detritus (IRD), lithofacies characteristics defined from CT scans, and quantitative mineralogy to reconstruct paleoceanographic conditions, sediment processes and sediment provenance. The chronology is based on radiocarbon dates on planktic foraminifers using a Delta R of 140 +/- 30 C-14 years, supplemented by the varying reservoir estimates of Stern and Lisiecki (2013) that provide an envelope of potential ages. HU2008029-12PC is bioturbated throughout. Sediments between the core base at 11.3 m and 4.6 m (LGM through HS1) comprise thin turbidites, plumites and hemipelagic sediments with Greenlandic provenance consistent with processes active at the Greenland Ice Sheet margin grounded at or near the shelf edge. Abundance spikes of planktic forams coincide with elevated abundance of benthic forams in assemblages indicative of chilled Atlantic Water, meltwater and intermittent marine productivity. IRD and IP25 are rare in this interval, but brassicasterol, an indicator of marine productivity reaches and sustains low levels during the LGM. These biological characteristics are consistent with a sea-ice covered ocean experiencing periods of more open water such as leads or polynyas in the sea ice cover, with chilled Atlantic Water at depth, rather than full iceshelf cover. They do not support the existence of a full Baffin Bay ice shelf cover extending from grounded ice on the Davis Strait. Initial ice retreat from the West Greenland margin is manifested by a pronounced lithofacies shift to bioturbated, diatomaceous mud with rare IRD of Greenlandic origin at 467 cm (16.2 cal ka BP; Delta R = 140 yrs) within HS1. A spike in foraminiferal abundance and ocean warmth indicator benthic forams precedes the initial ice retreat from the shelf edge. At the end of HS1, IP 25 , brassicasterol and benthic forams indicative of sea-ice edge productivity increase, indicating warming interstadial conditions. Within the Bolling/Allerod interstadial a strong rise in IP 25 content and IRD spikes rich in detrital carbonate from northern Baffin Bay indicate that northern Baffin Bay ice streams were retreating and provides evidence for increased open water, advection of Atlantic Water in the West Greenland Current, and formation of an IRD belt along the W. Greenland margin.
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| 4. |
- Jennings, Anne, et al.
(författare)
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Modern and early Holocene ice shelf sediment facies from Petermann Fjord and northern Nares Strait, northwest Greenland
- 2022
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Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 283
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Based on sediment cores and geophysical data collected from Petermann Fjord and northern Nares Strait, NW Greenland, an Arctic ice shelf sediment facies is presented that distinguishes sub and pro ice shelf environments. Sediment cores were collected from sites beneath the present day Petermann Ice Tongue (PIT) and in deglacial sediments of northern Nares Strait with a focus on understanding the glacial and oceanographic history over the last 11,000 cal yr BP. The modern sub ice shelf sediment facies in Petermann Fjord is laminated and devoid of coarse clasts (IRD) due to strong basal melting that releases debris (debris filtering) from the basal ice at the grounding zone driven by buoyant subglacial meltwater and entrained Atlantic Water. Laminated sediments in the deep basin proximal to the gounding zone comprise layers of fine mud formed by suspension settling from turbid meltwater plumes (plumites) interrupted by normally graded very fine sand to medium silt layers with sharp basal contacts and rip-up clasts of mud, interpreted as turbidites. An inner fjord sill limits distribution of sediment gravity flows from the grounding zone to the deep inner fjord basin, such that sites on the inner sill and beyond the ice tongue largely only comprise plumites. Bioturbation and foraminiferal abundances increase with distance from the grounding zone. The benthic foraminiferal species, Elphidium clavatum is absent beneath the ice tongue, but dominant in the turbid meltwater influenced environment beyond the ice tongue. The very sparse IRD in sediments beneath the PIT and in the fjord beyond the PIT derives mainly from englacial debris in the ice tongue, side valley glaciers, rock falls from the steep fjord walls and sea ice.We use the modern ice shelf sediment facies characteristics to infer the past presence of ice shelves in northern Nares Strait using analyses of sediment cores from several cruises (OD1507, HLY03, 2001LSSL, RYDER19). On bathymetric highs, bioturbated mud with dispersed IRD overlies a 10–15 m thick, distinctly laminated silt and clay unit with rare coarse clasts and sparse foraminifera which forms a sediment drape of nearly uniform thickness. We interpret these laminated sediments to represent glaciomarine deposition by meltwater plumes emanating from ice streams that terminated in floating ice shelves. IRD layers, shifts in sediment composition (qXRD, MS and XRF) and faunal assemblage changes in the laminated unit document periods of ice-shelf instability sometimes, but not always, coupled with grounding zone retreat. Our deglacial reconstruction, including ice shelves, begins ∼10.7 cal ka BP, with confluent ice streams grounded in Hall Basin fronted by the Robeson Channel ice shelf. Ice shelf breakup and grounding zone retreat to relatively stable grounding zones at Kennedy Channel and the mouth of Petermann Fjord was accomplished by 9.4 cal ka BP when the Hall Basin ice shelf was established. This ice shelf broke up and reformed once prior to the final break up at 8.5 to 8.4 cal ka BP marking ice stream collapse, separation of Greenland and Innuitian ice sheets, and the opening of Nares Strait for Arctic-Atlantic throughflow. The Petermann ice shelf remained in Hall Basin until the Petermann Glacier retreated from the fjord mouth ∼7.1 cal ka BP. The resilience of these northern ice streams to strong early Holocene insolation and subsurface Atlantic Water advection is attributed to their northern aspect, buttressing by narrow passages, and high ice flux from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS).
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| 5. |
- Leclere, David, et al.
(författare)
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Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 585:7826, s. 551-556
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides(1,2). Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity(3); however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge(4). Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether-and how-humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity(5). We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042-2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34-50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats-such as climate change-must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that ambitious conservation efforts and food system transformation are central to an effective post-2020 biodiversity strategy. To promote the recovery of the currently declining global trends in terrestrial biodiversity, increases in both the extent of land under conservation management and the sustainability of the global food system from farm to fork are required.
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| 6. |
- Lotze, Heike K., et al.
(författare)
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Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change
- 2019
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 116:26, s. 12907-12912
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (+/- 4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (+/- 11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 degrees C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.
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| 7. |
- Tittensor, Derek P., et al.
(författare)
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A protocol for the intercomparison of marine fishery and ecosystem models : Fish-MIP v1.0
- 2018
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Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 11:4, s. 1421-1442
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial to building credibility and coherence for future projections. They have quantified variability among models, spurred model development, contrasted within- and among-model uncertainty, assessed model fits to historical data, and provided ensemble projections of future change under specified scenarios. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment and the consequent effects on food security, biodiversity, marine industries, and society, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here, we describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0 (Fish-MIP v1.0), part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is a cross-sectoral network of climate impact modellers. Given the complexity of the marine ecosystem, this class of models has substantial heterogeneity of purpose, scope, theoretical underpinning, processes considered, parameterizations, resolution (grain size), and spatial extent. This heterogeneity reflects the lack of a unified understanding of the marine ecosystem and implies that the assemblage of all models is more likely to include a greater number of relevant processes than any single model. The current Fish-MIP protocol is designed to allow these heterogeneous models to be forced with common Earth System Model (ESM) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) outputs under prescribed scenarios for historic (from the 1950s) and future (to 2100) time periods; it will be adapted to CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) in future iterations. It also describes a standardized set of outputs for each participating Fish-MIP model to produce. This enables the broad characterization of differences between and uncertainties within models and projections when assessing climate and fisheries impacts on marine ecosystems and the services they provide. The systematic generation, collation, and comparison of results from Fish-MIP will inform an understanding of the range of plausible changes in marine ecosystems and improve our capacity to define and convey the strengths and weaknesses of model-based advice on future states of marine ecosystems and fisheries. Ultimately, Fish-MIP represents a step towards bringing together the marine ecosystem modelling community to produce consistent ensemble medium- and long-term projections of marine ecosystems.
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| 8. |
- Graham, Nicholas A. J., et al.
(författare)
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Extinction vulnerability of coral reef fishes
- 2011
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Ingår i: Ecology Letters. - : Wiley. - 1461-023X .- 1461-0248. ; 14:4, s. 341-348
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- P>With rapidly increasing rates of contemporary extinction, predicting extinction vulnerability and identifying how multiple stressors drive non-random species loss have become key challenges in ecology. These assessments are crucial for avoiding the loss of key functional groups that sustain ecosystem processes and services. We developed a novel predictive framework of species extinction vulnerability and applied it to coral reef fishes. Although relatively few coral reef fishes are at risk of global extinction from climate disturbances, a negative convex relationship between fish species locally vulnerable to climate change vs. fisheries exploitation indicates that the entire community is vulnerable on the many reefs where both stressors co-occur. Fishes involved in maintaining key ecosystem functions are more at risk from fishing than climate disturbances. This finding is encouraging as local and regional commitment to fisheries management action can maintain reef ecosystem functions pending progress towards the more complex global problem of stabilizing the climate.
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