| 1. |
- Nasr, Amro, et al.
(author)
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A qualitative prioritization of the risks imposed on bridges due to climate change
- 2019
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In: IABSE Symposium, Guimaraes 2019. - : International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering (IABSE). - 9783857481635 ; , s. 80-87
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Climate change and its impacts on infrastructures may seriously affect the functionality of societies. Despite the alarming potential consequences climate change pose, not enough effort has been directed towards averting these impacts or managing them in some other way (e.g. mitigation, reduction, etc.). Well-functioning infrastructure networks play a key role in societies’ resilience and their ability to cope with climate-induced hazards. Therefore, ensuring the efficient performance of infrastructure networks, even during climate related emergencies, is central to the resilience of societies in the face of climate change. At the heart of a resilient transportation infrastructure network lays robust bridge structures. This paper builds on previous work where the potential risks from climate change on bridges were surveyed. Here, a qualitative risk prioritization scheme for bridges to rank these risks is presented. The aim of this work is hence to provide a tool for determining which of these risks are more worthy of closer investigation. The suggested framework is based on the basic elements of risk; i.e. hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and consequences. Several indices reflecting these four components and their different characteristics are introduced. Subsequently, a method for ranking the different risks based on these indices is presented. This framework can be used to optimize investments in adapting bridges to climate change.
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| 2. |
- Nasr, Amro, et al.
(author)
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A review of the potential impacts of climate change on the safety and performance of bridges
- 2021
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In: Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure. - : Informa UK Limited. - 2378-9689 .- 2378-9697. ; 6:3-4, s. 192-212
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- An overabundance of evidence, both observational and from model projections, indicate that changes to the climate system are taking place at unprecedented rates. Although the magnitudes of these changes involve large uncertainties, the fact that our climate is changing is unequivocal. To ensure an unimpaired functionality of our societies,it is therefore of crucial importance to study the potential climate change impacts on infrastructure. Taking into account that bridges have a considerably long service life, it is of direct relevance to ascertain their reliable performance against climate change risks. This paper synthesizes the findings of over 190 research articles to identify the potential risks climate change may pose on bridges. Over 30 potential risks, supported by pertinent previous bridge damage (or failure) cases, are identified, categorized, and linked to the projected future climate changes. The identified risks can be used as a basis for future risk prioritization by bridge managers.
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| 3. |
- Nasr, Amro, et al.
(author)
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Bridges in a changing climate : a study of the potential impacts of climate change on bridges and their possible adaptations
- 2019
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In: Structure and Infrastructure Engineering. - : Taylor and Francis Ltd.. - 1573-2479 .- 1744-8980. ; 16:4, s. 738-749
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Climate change may have multifaceted impacts on the safety and performance of infrastructure. Accounting for the different ways in which potential climate change scenarios can affect our infrastructure is paramount in determining appropriate adaptation and risk management strategies. Despite gaining some attention among researchers in recent years, this research area is still largely uninvestigated. Several studies have indicated bridges to be especially susceptible to the effects of climate change. This article presents the potential impacts of climate change on bridges and combines the findings of close to 70 research articles to construct a broad list of their possible adaptation techniques. Although this study focuses on bridges, many of the presented climate change impacts and their adaptations are of relevance also to other types of infrastructure.
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| 4. |
- Nasr, Amro, et al.
(author)
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Climate change impact on safety and performance of existing and future bridges
- 2018
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In: Proceedings of the Sixth International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering (IALCCE 2018). ; , s. 1735-1741, s. 1735-1741
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Recent decades have seen an increased attention towards the threat of climate change to our built environment and not least our infrastructure. Accounting for the different ways in which potential climate change scenarios can affect our infrastructure is paramount in determining appropriate adaptation and risk management strategies. This paper presents the initial findings of a new research project which is concerned with establishing an improved management of the risks to our infrastructure, especially bridges, in light of a changing climate. In this paper, a preliminary survey of the climate change related risks on bridges is conducted. Timely consideration of these impacts is of utmost importance to ensure a satisfactory performance of our bridges in the future. The interplay between the different risks and how the occurrence of one risk may influence other risks is also briefly discussed. The future stages of the project are mentioned as well. The authors would like to acknowledge the support of the Swedish Transport Administration. Any opinions, findings, or conclusions in this work are those of the authors and are not necessarily in accordance with those of the Swedish Transport Administration.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Nasr, Amro, et al.
(author)
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Climate change risks and bridge design
- 2023
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In: Adapting the Built Environment for Climate Change : Design Principles for Climate Emergencies - Design Principles for Climate Emergencies. - 9780323953375 - 9780323953368 ; , s. 109-131
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Book chapter (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Climate change can have substantial impacts on the safety and performance of infrastructure systems. Understanding these impacts is of paramount importance, especially for long-lived infrastructure elements, such as bridge structures. This chapter focuses on discussing the impacts of climate change to bridges and describes a conceptual framework as a guide for bridge designers on how to consider these impacts in bridge design. Several existing challenges are, however, highlighted that hinder the application of such a framework in practical contexts (e.g., climate change data availability and uncertainty). Overcoming these challenges is necessary to facilitate a rational consideration of climate change impacts in the design of bridge infrastructure. Although the current chapter mainly addresses bridges, the identified risks and proposed framework can be extended to other types of infrastructures and infrastructure elements.
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| 8. |
- Nasr, Amro, et al.
(author)
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Klimatförändringars inverkan på broars säkerhet och prestanda : En översyn av potentiella effekter och anpassningsåtgärder
- 2019
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Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Vår infrastruktur kommer att påverkas av klimatförändringar, både nu och i framtiden.För att kunna säkerställa infrastrukturens funktion och uppfylla de säkerhetskrav somfinns kommer det därför att krävas investeringar i anpassningsåtgärder. Men åtgärder börinte tas på utifrån bristfällig kunskap, det är därför väsentligt att i förväg kartlägga vilkatyper av påverkan som kan förväntas och vilka åtgärder som är rimliga att genomföra.Denna rapport sammanfattar resultat från studier av risker med klimatförändringar ochdess potentiella effekter på broar, då dessa konstruktioner kan komma att påverkas avolika ändringar i klimatet. I studierna har 243 forskningsartiklar och rapporter från helavärlden gåtts igenom för att identifiera potentiella risker för broar på grund av ändringari klimatet. Det bör nämnas att resultaten i rapporten inte är fokuserade på Sverige utanhar ett internationellt perspektiv; de flesta av de identifierade riskerna är dock relevantaför svenska förhållanden, medan andra är mer relevanta i andra delar av världen.Totalt har 31 olika risker identifierats och kategoriserats i sju olika huvudkategorier enligtföljande:• Beständighet (riskgrupp D),• Funktion (riskgrupp S),• Geoteknik (riskgrupp G),• Ökad belastning (riskgrupp I),• Olyckslaster (riskgrupp A),• Extrema naturhändelser (riskgrupp E)• Drift (riskgrupp O).Utöver dessa riskkategorier har även en kortare analys av samverkande händelser gjorts,dvs. händelser där två eller flera klimatfaktorer eller effekter samverkar och ger en störresammantagen effekt än om de inträffar var för sig. En avslutande del om möjligaanpassningsåtgärder har även inkluderats, där metoder funna i litteraturen för att hanterade olika riskerna som identifierats beskrivs.Den viktigaste slutsatsen i rapporten är att ett stort antal risker finns för broar.Föreliggande rapport bidrar därmed till att lyfta fram dessa risker och synliggöra desseffekter. De två klimatfaktorer som påverkar flest risker för broar är temperaturhöjningoch ökad eller minskad nederbörd, de kan individuellt eller kombinerat påverka 25 av de31 identifierade riskerna. Beroende på förutsättningarna för en specifik bro (dvs.geografiskt läge, platsegenskaper, konstruktivt system, etc.) varierar de potentiellaklimateffekterna och deras möjliga konsekvenser. En bedömning av sannolikheten för enviss risk att inträffa, eller en prioritering av de olika riskerna, tas därmed inte upp irapporten. Sådana mer detaljerade kontextspecifika studier pågår och kommer attredovisas framöver inom ramen för projektet.
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| 9. |
- Nasr, Amro, et al.
(author)
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Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate change on creep of concrete structures
- 2021
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In: Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2021). - Singapore : Research Publishing Services. - 9789811820168 ; , s. 1318-1325
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Creep of concrete structures is in most cases regarded as a serviceability problem that may have impacts on maintenance and repair costs but cannot lead to structural collapse. However, several structural collapses during the past decades have been, at least partly, attributed to excessive creep deformations. Recent studies suggest that concrete creep may be further exacerbated by climate change. The current study demonstrates how this effect can be quantitatively assessed. For this purpose, six different creep models (i.e, Model Code 1999, Model Code 2010, MPF, B3, B4, and B4s models) are used under considerations of historical and future climatic conditions in southernmost Sweden as given by a regional climate model. Furthermore, two different simulations were performed as follows: 1) considering only climate uncertainty represented by the climate model, and 2) considering climate uncertainty, parameter uncertainty, and creep model uncertainty. The highest impact of climate change on end of century creep coefficient is observed using model B4 where the 75th percentile of the increase in creep coefficient is found to range from 8% to ∼14% depending on the climate scenario. The results of the assessment in this article show that the uncertainty related to climate change on creep of concrete structures (higher effect in RCP8.5 than in RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 which have very similar results) is much smaller than uncertainties resulting from creep modelling.
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| 10. |
- Nasr, Amro, et al.
(author)
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Risk-based multi-criteria decision analysis method for considering the effects of climate change on bridges
- 2023
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In: Structure and Infrastructure Engineering. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1573-2479 .- 1744-8980. ; 19:10, s. 1445-1458
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Recent studies have identified many potential climate change impacts on bridges. Considering the sheer number of these potential impacts, how can a bridge owner prioritise which impacts to consider, and for which bridges? This paper proposes a risk-based multi-criteria decision analysis method for systematically addressing these two questions simultaneously. The proposed method can be used to address both extreme and non-extreme impacts as opposed to focussing solely on extreme impacts as has been done in previous prioritisation studies related to climate change risks. The proposed method is based on four main components of risk: hazard, impact, vulnerability and consequences. Several indices characterising these components are used to address the previous two questions. To reflect the uncertainty in the analysis, the different indices are assessed optimistically and pessimistically. Additionally, to ensure a more transparent decision-making process the inclusion of a strength of evidence assessment is also proposed. The applicability of the method is then demonstrated on three illustrative case studies for three different potential climate change impacts. It is concluded that the proposed method is both feasible and appropriately fulfils its purpose. Nevertheless, the proposed method should be more elaborately tested on practical bridge case studies to further establish its applicability.
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