| 1. |
- Rydén, Patrik, 1969-, et al.
(författare)
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Effects of climate change on tularemia disease activity in Sweden
- 2009
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Ingår i: Global Health Action. - 1654-9880. ; 2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Tularaemia is a vector-borne infectious disease. A large majority of cases transmitted to humans by bloodfeeding arthropods occur during the summer season and is linked to increased temperatures. Therefore, the effect of climate change is likely to have an effect on tularaemia transmission patterns in highly endemic areas of Sweden. In this report, we use simulated climate change scenario data and empirical data of temperatures critical to tularaemia transmission to forecast tularaemia outbreak activity. The five high-endemic counties: Dalarna, Gävleborg, Norrbotten, Värmland and Örebro represent only 14.6% of the total population of Sweden, but have recorded 40.1-81.1% of the number of annual human tularaemia in Sweden from 1997 until 2008. We project here earlier starts and a later termination of future tularaemia outbreaks for the time period 2010-2100. For five localised outbreak areas; Gagnef (Dalarna), Ljusdal (Gävleborg), Harads (Norrbotten), Karlstad (Värmland) and Örebro municipality (Örebro), the climate scenario suggests an approximately 2°C increase in monthly average summer temperatures leading to increases in outbreak durations ranging from 3.5 weeks (Harads) to 6.6 weeks (Karlstad) between 2010 and 2100. In contrast, an analysis of precipitation scenarios indicates fairly stable projected levels of precipitation during the summer months. Thus, there should not be an increased abundance of late summer mosquitoes that are believed to be main vectors for transmission to humans in these areas. In conclusion, the results indicate that the future climate changes will lead to an increased burden of tularaemia in high-endemic areas of Sweden during the coming decades.
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| 2. |
- Rydén, Patrik, 1969-, et al.
(författare)
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Outbreaks of tularemia in a boreal forest region depends on mosquito prevalence
- 2012
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Ingår i: Journal of Infectious Diseases. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0022-1899 .- 1537-6613. ; 205:2, s. 297-304
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background. We aimed to evaluate the potential association of mosquito prevalence in a boreal forest area with transmission of the bacterial disease tularemia to humans, and model the annual variation of disease using local weather data.Methods. A prediction model for mosquito abundance was built using weather and mosquito catch data. Then a negative binomial regression model based on the predicted mosquito abundance and local weather data was built to predict annual numbers of humans contracting tularemia in Dalarna County, Sweden.Results. Three hundred seventy humans were diagnosed with tularemia between 1981 and 2007, 94% of them during 7 summer outbreaks. Disease transmission was concentrated along rivers in the area. The predicted mosquito abundance was correlated (0.41, P < .05) with the annual number of human cases. The predicted mosquito peaks consistently preceded the median onset time of human tularemia (temporal correlation, 0.76; P < .05). Our final predictive model included 5 environmental variables and identified 6 of the 7 outbreaks.Conclusions. This work suggests that a high prevalence of mosquitoes in late summer is a prerequisite for outbreaks of tularemia in a tularemia-endemic boreal forest area of Sweden and that environmental variables can be used as risk indicators.
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| 3. |
- Sundström, Johan, Professor, 1971-, et al.
(författare)
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Rationale for a Swedish cohort consortium
- 2019
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Ingår i: Upsala Journal of Medical Sciences. - : Taylor & Francis Group. - 0300-9734 .- 2000-1967. ; 124:1, s. 21-28
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We herein outline the rationale for a Swedish cohort consortium, aiming to facilitate greater use of Swedish cohorts for world-class research. Coordination of all Swedish prospective population-based cohorts in a common infrastructure would enable more precise research findings and facilitate research on rare exposures and outcomes, leading to better utilization of study participants' data, better return of funders' investments, and higher benefit to patients and populations. We motivate the proposed infrastructure partly by lessons learned from a pilot study encompassing data from 21 cohorts. We envisage a standing Swedish cohort consortium that would drive development of epidemiological research methods and strengthen the Swedish as well as international epidemiological competence, community, and competitiveness.
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