| 1. |
- Curtsdotter, Alva, et al.
(author)
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Ecosystem function in predator-prey food webs : confronting dynamic models with empirical data
- 2019
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In: Journal of Animal Ecology. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0021-8790 .- 1365-2656. ; 88:2, s. 196-210
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Most ecosystem functions and related services involve species interactions across trophic levels, for example, pollination and biological pest control. Despite this, our understanding of ecosystem function in multitrophic communities is poor, and research has been limited to either manipulation in small communities or statistical descriptions in larger ones. Recent advances in food web ecology may allow us to overcome the trade-off between mechanistic insight and ecological realism. Molecular tools now simplify the detection of feeding interactions, and trait-based approaches allow the application of dynamic food web models to real ecosystems. We performed the first test of an allometric food web model's ability to replicate temporally nonaggregated abundance data from the field and to provide mechanistic insight into the function of predation. We aimed to reproduce and explore the drivers of the population dynamics of the aphid herbivore Rhopalosiphum padi observed in ten Swedish barley fields. We used a dynamic food web model, taking observed interactions and abundances of predators and alternative prey as input data, allowing us to examine the role of predation in aphid population control. The inverse problem methods were used for simultaneous model fit optimization and model parameterization. The model captured >70% of the variation in aphid abundance in five of ten fields, supporting the model-embodied hypothesis that body size can be an important determinant of predation in the arthropod community. We further demonstrate how in-depth model analysis can disentangle the likely drivers of function, such as the community's abundance and trait composition. Analysing the variability in model performance revealed knowledge gaps, such as the source of episodic aphid mortality, and general method development needs that, if addressed, would further increase model success and enable stronger inference about ecosystem function. The results demonstrate that confronting dynamic food web models with abundance data from the field is a viable approach to evaluate ecological theory and to aid our understanding of function in real ecosystems. However, to realize the full potential of food web models, in ecosystem function research and beyond, trait-based parameterization must be refined and extended to include more traits than body size. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2018 British Ecological Society
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| 2. |
- Fick, Jerker, et al.
(author)
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Screening of benzodiazepines in thirty European rivers
- 2017
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In: Chemosphere. - : Elsevier BV. - 0045-6535 .- 1879-1298. ; 176, s. 324-332
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Pharmaceuticals as environmental contaminants have received a lot of interest over the past decade but, for several pharmaceuticals, relatively little is known about their occurrence in European surface waters. Benzodiazepines, a class of pharmaceuticals with anxiolytic properties, have received interest due to their behavioral modifying effect on exposed biota. In this study, our results show the presence of one or more benzodiazepine(s) in 86% of the analyzed surface water samples (n = 138) from 30 rivers, representing seven larger European catchments. Of the 13 benzodiazepines included in the study, we detected 9, which together showed median and mean concentrations (of the results above limit of quantification) of 5.4 and 9.6 ng L-1, respectively. Four benzodiazepines (oxazepam, temazepam, clobazam, and bromazepam) were the most commonly detected. In particular, oxazepam had the highest frequency of detection (85%) and a maximum concentration of 61 ng L-1. Temazepam and clobazam were found in 26% (maximum concentration of 39 ng L-1) and 14% (maximum concentration of 11 ng L-1) of the samples analyzed, respectively. Finally, bromazepam was found only in Germany and in 16 out of total 138 samples (12%), with a maximum concentration of 320 ng L-1. This study clearly shows that benzodiazepines are common micro-contaminants of the largest European river systems at ng L-1 levels. Although these concentrations are more than a magnitude lower than those reported to have effective effects on exposed biota, environmental effects cannot be excluded considering the possibility of additive and sub-lethal effects.
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| 3. |
- Grut, Viktor, et al.
(author)
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Cytomegalovirus seropositivity is associated with reduced risk of multiple sclerosis : a presymptomatic case-control study
- 2021
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In: European Journal of Neurology. - : Blackwell Publishing. - 1351-5101 .- 1468-1331. ; 28:9, s. 3072-3079
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) and Human herpesvirus 6A (HHV-6A) are associated with increased risk of multiple sclerosis (MS). Conversely, infection with Cytomegalovirus (CMV) has been suggested to reduce the risk of MS but supporting data from presymptomatic studies are lacking. Here, we sought to increase the understanding of CMV in MS aetiology.METHODS: We performed a nested case-control study with presymptomatically collected blood samples identified through cross-linkage of MS registries and Swedish biobanks. Serological antibody response against CMV, EBV and HHV-6A was determined using a bead-based multiplex assay. Odds ratio (OR) with 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for CMV seropositivity as risk factor for MS was calculated by conditional logistic regression and adjusted for EBV and HHV-6A seropositivity. Potential interactions on the additive scale were analysed by calculating attributable proportion due to interaction (AP).RESULTS: Serum samples from 670 pairs of matched cases and controls were included. CMV seropositivity was associated with a reduced risk for MS (OR = 0.70, 95% CI 0.56-0.88, p = 0.003). Statistical interactions on the additive scale were observed between seronegativity for CMV and seropositivity against HHV-6A (AP 0.34, 95% CI 0.06-0.61) and EBV antigen EBNA-1 (amino acid 385-420) at age 20-39 years (AP 0.37, 95% CI 0.09-0.65).CONCLUSIONS: CMV seropositivity is associated with a decreased risk for MS. The protective role for CMV infection in MS aetiology is further supported by the interactions between CMV seronegativity and EBV and HHV-6A seropositivity.
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| 4. |
- Heuvelmans, Matthijs, 1982-, et al.
(author)
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Power Semiconductors for Voltage Source Converters in HVDC and STATCOM Applications
- 2015
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Conference paper (other academic/artistic)abstract
- With a steady increase in electricity consumption in both developed and developing regions combined with demand for sustainable energy infrastructure, trends towards more renewable energy sources and more open electricity markets are becoming more prominent. High Voltage DC (HVDC) connections and Static Synchronous Compensators (STATCOM) are two technologies that play a part in fulfilling this increasing demand. HVDC is beneficial in cases where production and consumption are geographically separated or for sub-sea cable transmissions. STATCOM helps to increase the capacity of AC transmission in addition to enhancing ac-grid voltage quality. A key component in both HVDC and STATCOM converters are the semiconductor switching devices. Switching devices have a fundamental impact on performance levels that can be obtained in terms of efficiency, reliability and functionality. This paper serves two purposes. The first is to give a historical overview of switching devices employed in HVDC transmission systems and STATCOMs. This starts with the use of mercury arc valves some 100 years ago and it continues with the semiconductor switching devices that are currently being employed in HVDC and STATCOM applications. A second purpose of this paper is to indicate developments in switching technology that are of interest for HVDC and STATCOM. In order to do this in a structured manner, the technologies are compared in terms of efficiency, reliability and functionality. Developments that are discussed in this paper are the emergence of Silicon Carbide (SiC) devices and the improvement of Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistor (IGBT) and Integrated Gate Commutated Thyristor (IGCT) devices in silicon. Currently, applications are based on silicon based thyristors or IGBT technology. Line commutated converters based on thyristors are cost-effective and efficient; however, due to lack of controlled turn-off capability, functionality is limited. Using voltage source converter technology with semiconductors having turn-off capability, such as the IGBT, increased functionality is obtained. The IGCT, a gate controlled thyristor with turn-off capability, has lower conduction losses compared to an IGBT with the same active area. In case a modular multilevel converter is used, the switching frequency of the individual switches can be reduced for the same performance. This leads to a shift towards the importance of having low conduction losses as opposed to low switching losses. A further shift can be achieved by using soft-switching techniques. Regarding SiC devices, different maturity is reached for unipolar and bipolar devices. Unipolar devices in SiC have been marketed successfully at low voltages (≤ 1700V). An example is SiC Schottky diodes for power factor correctors. For the voltages typically applied in HVDC and STATCOM, the drift region resistance would impose serious limitations on efficiency (if high current densities are used). Bipolar devices such as SiC IGBTs and IGCTs have been demonstrated in laboratory setups and results have been published; however, reliable operation is currently impeded due to the propagation of crystal lattice defects which causes rapid degradation of such devices.
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| 5. |
- Jonsson, Anders, et al.
(author)
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Limitations of acyclic causal graphs for planning
- 2014
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In: Artificial Intelligence. - : Elsevier. - 0004-3702 .- 1872-7921. ; 210, s. 36-55
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Causal graphs are widely used in planning to capture the internal structure of planning instances. Researchers have paid special attention to the subclass of planning instances with acyclic causal graphs, which in the past have been exploited to generate hierarchical plans, to compute heuristics, and to identify classes of planning instances that are easy to solve. This naturally raises the question of whether planning is easier when the causal graph is acyclic. In this article we show that the answer to this question is no, proving that in the worst case, the problem of plan existence is PSPACE-complete even when the causal graph is acyclic. Since the variables of the planning instances in our reduction are propositional, this result applies to STRIPS planning with negative preconditions. We show that the reduction still holds if we restrict actions to have at most two preconditions. Having established that planning is hard for acyclic causal graphs, we study two subclasses of planning instances with acyclic causal graphs. One such subclass is described by propositional variables that are either irreversible or symmetrically reversible. Another subclass is described by variables with strongly connected domain transition graphs. In both cases, plan existence is bounded away from PSPACE, but in the latter case, the problem of bounded plan existence is hard, implying that optimal planning is significantly harder than satisficing planning for this class.
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| 6. |
- Jonsson, Anders, et al.
(author)
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When Acyclicity is not Enough: Limitations of the Causal Graph
- 2013
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In: Proceedings of the Twenty-Third International Conference on Automated Planning and Scheduling. - : AAAI Press. - 9781577356097 ; , s. 117-125
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Causal graphs are widely used in planning to capture the internal structure of planning instances. In the past, causal graphs have been exploited to generate hierarchical plans, to compute heuristics, and to identify classes of planning instances that are easy to solve. It is generally believed that planning is easier when the causal graph is acyclic. In this paper we show that this is not true in the worst case, proving that the problem of plan existence is PSPACE-complete even when the causal graph is acyclic. Since the variables of the planning instances in our reduction are propositional, this result applies to STRIPS planning with negative pre-conditions. Having established that planning is hard for acyclic causal graphs, we study a subclass of planning instances with acyclic causal graphs whose variables have strongly connected domain transition graphs. For this class, we show that plan existence is easy, but that bounded plan existence is hard, implying that optimal planning is significantly harder than satisficing planning for this class.
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| 7. |
- Jonsson, Tomas, et al.
(author)
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Food web structure affects the extinction risk of species in ecological communities
- 2006
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In: Ecological Modelling. - : Elsevier. - 0304-3800 .- 1872-7026. ; 199:1, s. 93-106
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper studies the effect of food web structure on the extinction risk of species. We examine 793 different six-species food web structures with different number, position and strength of trophic links and expose them to stochasticity in a model with Lotka–Volterra predator–prey dynamics. The characteristics of species (intrinsic rates of increase as well as intraspecific density dependence) are held constant, but the interactions with other species and characteristics of the food web are varied.Extinctions of producer species occurred but were rare. Species at all trophic levels went extinct in communities with strong interactions as compared to communities with no strong interactions where only the secondary consumer went extinct. Extinction of a species directly involved in a strong interaction was more frequent than extinctions of species not directly involved in strong interactions (here termed direct and indirect extinctions, respectively). In model webs where both direct and indirect extinctions occurred, roughly 20% were indirect extinctions. The probability of indirect extinctions decreased with number of links. It is concluded that not just the presence of strong interactions but also their position and direction can have profound effects on extinction risk of species.Three principal components, based on 11 different food web metrics, explained 76.6% of the variation in trophic structure among food webs that differed in the number and position, but not strength, of trophic links. The extinction risk of consumer species was closely correlated to at least two of the three principal components, indicating that extinction risk of consumer species were affected by food web structure. The existence of a relationship between food web structure and extinction risk of a species was confirmed by a regression tree analysis and a complementary log-linear analysis. These analyses showed that extinction of consumer species were affected by the position of strong interactions and a varying number of other food web metrics, different for intermediate and top species. Furthermore, the degree to which the equilibrium abundance of a species is affected by a press perturbation is an indication of the risk of extinction that this species faces when exposed to environmental stochasticity. It is concluded that extinction risk of a species is determined in a complicated way by an interaction among species characteristics, food web structure and the type of disturbance.
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| 8. |
- Jonsson, Tomas, et al.
(author)
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Predictive power of food web models based on body size decreases with trophic complexity
- 2018
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In: Ecology Letters. - : Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Inc.. - 1461-023X .- 1461-0248. ; 21:5, s. 702-712
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Food web models parameterised using body size show promise to predict trophic interaction strengths (IS) and abundance dynamics. However, this remains to be rigorously tested in food webs beyond simple trophic modules, where indirect and intraguild interactions could be important and driven by traits other than body size. We systematically varied predator body size, guild composition and richness in microcosm insect webs and compared experimental outcomes with predictions of IS from models with allometrically scaled parameters. Body size was a strong predictor of IS in simple modules (r(2)=0.92), but with increasing complexity the predictive power decreased, with model IS being consistently overestimated. We quantify the strength of observed trophic interaction modifications, partition this into density-mediated vs. behaviour-mediated indirect effects and show that model shortcomings in predicting IS is related to the size of behaviour-mediated effects. Our findings encourage development of dynamical food web models explicitly including and exploring indirect mechanisms.
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| 9. |
- Jonsson, Tomas, et al.
(author)
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Trophic interactions affect the population dynamics and risk of extinction of basal species in food webs
- 2010
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In: Ecological Complexity. - : Elsevier. - 1476-945X .- 1476-9840. ; 7:1, s. 60-68
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper addresses effects of trophic complexity on basal species, in a Lotka–Volterra model with stochasticity. We use simple food web modules, with three trophic levels, and expose every species to random environmental stochasticity and analyze (1) the effect of the position of strong trophic interactions on temporal fluctuations in basal species’ abundances and (2) the relationship between fluctuation patterns and extinction risk. First, the numerical simulations showed that basal species do not simply track the environment, i.e. species dynamics do not simply mirror the characteristics of the applied environmental stochasticity. Second, the extinction risk of species was related to the fluctuation patterns of the species.More specifically, we show (i) that despite being forced by random stochasticity without temporal autocorrelation (i.e. white noise), there is significant temporal autocorrelation in the time series of all basal species’ abundances (i.e. the spectra of basal species are red-shifted), (ii) the degree of temporal autocorrelation in basal species time series is affected by food web structure and (iii) the degree of temporal autocorrelation tend to be correlated to the extinction risks of basal species.Our results emphasize the role of food web structure and species interactions in modifying the response of species to environmental variability. To shed some light on the mechanisms we compare the observed pattern in abundances of basal species with analytically predicted patterns and show that the change in the predicted pattern due to the addition of strong trophic interactions is correlated to the extinction risk of the basal species. We conclude that much remain to be understood about the mechanisms behind the interaction among environmental variability, species interactions, population dynamics and vulnerability before we quantitatively can predict, for example, effects of climate change on species and ecological communities. Here, however, we point out a new possible approach for identifying species that are vulnerable to environmental stochasticity by checking the degree of temporal autocorrelation in the time series of species. Increased autocorrelation in population fluctuations can be an indication of increased extinction risk.
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| 10. |
- Karlsson, Patrik, et al.
(author)
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Food web structure and interaction strength pave the way for vulnerability to extinction
- 2007
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In: Journal of Theoretical Biology. - : Elsevier. - 0022-5193 .- 1095-8541. ; 249:1, s. 77-92
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper focuses on how food web structure and interactions among species affects the vulnerability, due to environmental variability, to extinction of species at different positions in model food webs. Vulnerability is here not measured by a traditional extinction threshold but is instead inspired by the IUCN criteria for endangered species: an observed rapid decline in population abundance. Using model webs influenced by stochasticity with zero autocorrelation, we investigate the ecological determinants of species vulnerability, i.e. the trophic interactions between species and food web structure and how these interact with the risk of sudden drops in abundance of species. We find that (i) producers fulfil the criterion of vulnerable species more frequently than other species, (ii) food web structure is related to vulnerability, and (iii) the vulnerability of species is greater when involved in a strong trophic interaction than when not. We note that our result on the relationship between extinction risk and trophic position of species contradict previous suggestions and argue that the main reason for the discrepancy probably is due to the fact that we study the vulnerability to environmental stochasticity and not extinction risk due to overexploitation, habitat destruction or interactions with introduced species. Thus, we suggest that the vulnerability of species to environmental stochasticity may be differently related to trophic position than the vulnerability of species to other factors.Earlier research on species extinctions has looked for intrinsic traits of species that correlate with increased vulnerability to extinction. However, to fully understand the extinction process we must also consider that species interactions may affect vulnerability and that not all extinctions are the result of long, gradual reductions in species abundances. Under environmental stochasticity (which importance frequently is assumed to increase as a result of climate change) and direct and indirect interactions with other species some extinctions may occur rapidly and apparently unexpectedly. To identify the first declines of population abundances that may escalate and lead to extinctions as early as possible, we need to recognize which species are at greatest risk of entering such dangerous routes and under what circumstances. This new perspective may contribute to our understanding of the processes leading to extinction of populations and eventually species. This is especially urgent in the light of the current biodiversity crisis where a large fraction of the world's biodiversity is threatened.
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