| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Fang, Evandro F., et al.
(författare)
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A research agenda for ageing in China in the 21st century (2nd edition): Focusing on basic and translational research, long-term care, policy and social networks.
- 2020
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Ingår i: Ageing Research Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 1568-1637. ; 64
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- One of the key issues facing public healthcare is the global trend of an increasingly ageing society which continues to present policy makers and caregivers with formidable healthcare and socio-economic challenges. Ageing is the primary contributor to a broad spectrum of chronic disorders all associated with a lower quality of life in the elderly. In 2019, the Chinese population constituted 18 % of the world population, with 164.5 million Chinese citizens aged 65 and above (65+), and 26 million aged 80 or above (80+). China has become an ageing society, and as it continues to age it will continue to exacerbate the burden borne by current family and public healthcare systems. Major healthcare challenges involved with caring for the elderly in China include the management of chronic non-communicable diseases (CNCDs), physical frailty, neurodegenerative diseases, cardiovascular diseases, with emerging challenges such as providing sufficient dental care, combating the rising prevalence of sexually transmitted diseases among nursing home communities, providing support for increased incidences of immune diseases, and the growing necessity to provide palliative care for the elderly. At the governmental level, it is necessary to make long-term strategic plans to respond to the pressures of an ageing society, especially to establish a nationwide, affordable, annual health check system to facilitate early diagnosis and provide access to affordable treatments. China has begun work on several activities to address these issues including the recent completion of the of the Ten-year Health-Care Reform project, the implementation of the Healthy China 2030 Action Plan, and the opening of the National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Disorders. There are also societal challenges, namely the shift from an extended family system in which the younger provide home care for their elderly family members, to the current trend in which young people are increasingly migrating towards major cities for work, increasing reliance on nursing homes to compensate, especially following the outcomes of the ‘one child policy’ and the ‘empty-nest elderly’ phenomenon. At the individual level, it is important to provide avenues for people to seek and improve their own knowledge of health and disease, to encourage them to seek medical check-ups to prevent/manage illness, and to find ways to promote modifiable health-related behaviors (social activity, exercise, healthy diets, reasonable diet supplements) to enable healthier, happier, longer, and more productive lives in the elderly. Finally, at the technological or treatment level, there is a focus on modern technologies to counteract the negative effects of ageing. Researchers are striving to produce drugs that can mimic the effects of ‘exercising more, eating less’, while other anti-ageing molecules from molecular gerontologists could help to improve ‘healthspan’ in the elderly. Machine learning, ‘Big Data’, and other novel technologies can also be used to monitor disease patterns at the population level and may be used to inform policy design in the future. Collectively, synergies across disciplines on policies, geriatric care, drug development, personal awareness, the use of big data, machine learning and personalized medicine will transform China into a country that enables the most for its elderly, maximizing and celebrating their longevity in the coming decades. This is the 2nd edition of the review paper (Fang EF et al., Ageing Re. Rev. 2015).
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| 3. |
- Asgharian, Hossein, et al.
(författare)
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Long- and short-run components of factor betas : Implications for stock pricing
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of international financial markets, institutions, and money. - : Elsevier BV. - 1042-4431 .- 1873-0612. ; 74
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We propose a new model that estimates the long- and short-run components of the variances and covariances. The advantage of our model to the existing DCC-based models is that it uses the same form for both the variances and covariances and estimates these moments simultaneously. We apply this model to obtain long- and short-run factor betas for industry test portfolios. We find that the risk premium related to the short-run market beta is significantly positive, irrespective of the choice of test portfolio. Further, the risk premia for the short-run betas of all the risk factors are significant outside recessions.
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| 4. |
- Jones, Benedict C, et al.
(författare)
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To which world regions does the valence-dominance model of social perception apply?
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-3374. ; 5:1, s. 159-169
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Over the past 10 years, Oosterhof and Todorov's valence-dominance model has emerged as the most prominent account of how people evaluate faces on social dimensions. In this model, two dimensions (valence and dominance) underpin social judgements of faces. Because this model has primarily been developed and tested in Western regions, it is unclear whether these findings apply to other regions. We addressed this question by replicating Oosterhof and Todorov's methodology across 11 world regions, 41 countries and 11,570 participants. When we used Oosterhof and Todorov's original analysis strategy, the valence-dominance model generalized across regions. When we used an alternative methodology to allow for correlated dimensions, we observed much less generalization. Collectively, these results suggest that, while the valence-dominance model generalizes very well across regions when dimensions are forced to be orthogonal, regional differences are revealed when we use different extraction methods and correlate and rotate the dimension reduction solution. PROTOCOL REGISTRATION: The stage 1 protocol for this Registered Report was accepted in principle on 5 November 2018. The protocol, as accepted by the journal, can be found at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.7611443.v1 .
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| 5. |
- Baker, Laura, et al.
(författare)
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The Relationship between IQ and PM2.5 : Findings from the University of Southern California Twin Study
- 2016
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Ingår i: Behavior Genetics. - : Springer. - 0001-8244 .- 1573-3297. ; 46:6, s. 772-773
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We examined the longitudinal relationship between IQ and fine particulate matter (\2.5lm aerodynamic diameters; PM2.5) exposure in urban-dwelling children, using prospective longitudinal data from the USC Twin Study of Risk Factors for Antisocial Behavior (RFAB; Baker et al. 2013). Residential addresses were collected via selfreports. Verbal and Performance IQ during childhood (age 9–10) and young adulthood (age 19–20) were evaluated by the Wechsler Abbreviated Intelligence Scale (Wechsler, 1999) using four subtests: VIQ=Vocabulary Similarities; PIQ=Block Design Matrices. Based on residential addresses and spatiotemporal generalized additive model of local monitoring data for PM2.5, we estimated 1-year average exposure before each assessment. A three-level mixed effects model regressing IQ scores at each assessment on time-varying air pollution exposures, accounting for both within-family (random intercepts) and within-individual (random slopes) was used. PM2.5 exposure had significant adverse effects on PIQ (95 % CI of b:-7.29 to-1.01, p\.05) but not VIQ (95 % CI of b:-4.50 to-1.96). Adverse effects of PM2.5 exposure remained significant after adjusting for age, family SES, sex, race/ethnicity, parental cognitive abilities, neighborhood SES, neighborhood quality and neighborhood greenness; the association was still significant after further adjusting for traffic distance (300 m), temperature, humidity and annual NOx. PM2.5 exposure confers stronger adverse effects on PIQ in low SES families, males, and during pre-adolescence. Our findings reveal social disparities and sexual dimorphism in the adverse PM2.5 exposure effects on PIQ. Baker, L., Tuvblad, C., Wang, P., Gomez, K., Bezdjian, S., Niv, S., & Raine, A. (2013). The Southern California Twin Register at the University of Southern California: III. Twin Research and Human Genetics, 16(1), 336–343; Wechsler, D. (1999). Wechsler Abbreviated Scale of Intelligence (WASI). San Antonio, Texas: Harcourt Assessment.
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| 6. |
- Jackson, Robert B., et al.
(författare)
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Human well-being and per capita energy use
- 2022
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Ingår i: Ecosphere. - : Wiley. - 2150-8925 .- 2150-8925. ; 13:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Increased wealth and per capita energy use have transformed lives and shaped societies, but energy poverty remains a global challenge. Previous research has shown positive relationships among metrics of health and happiness and economic indices such as income and gross domestic product and between energy use and human development. To our knowledge, however, no comprehensive assessment has examined to what extent energy use may limit national-level trends in such metrics. We analyze the maximum global performance of nine health, economic, and environmental metrics by country, determining which metrics increase with per capita energy use and which show thresholds or plateaus in maximum performance. Across the dataset, eight of nine metrics, including life expectancy, infant mortality, happiness, food supply, and access to basic sanitation services, improve steeply and then plateau at levels of average primary annual energy consumption between 10 and 75 GJ person−1 computed nationally (five metrics plateau between 10 and 30 GJ person−1). One notable exception is air quality (energy threshold of 125 GJ person−1 across 133 countries). Averaged across metrics, the 10 countries (with at least seven metrics) showing the best performance given their per capita primary energy use are Malta, Sri Lanka, Cuba, Albania, Iceland, Finland, Bangladesh, Norway, Morocco, and Denmark. If distributed equitably, today's average global energy consumption of 79 GJ person−1 could, in principle, allow everyone on Earth to realize 95% or more of maximum performance across all metrics (and assuming no other limiting factors). Dozens of countries have average per capita energy use below this 79 GJ energy sufficiency threshold, highlighting the need to combat energy poverty. Surprisingly, our analysis also suggests that reduced per capita primary energy consumption could in principle occur in many higher energy-consuming countries with little or no loss in health, happiness, or other outcomes, reducing the need for global energy infrastructure and increasing global equity.
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| 7. |
- Jin, Jun, et al.
(författare)
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Co-Evolution of Knowledge-Intensive Entrepreneurial Firms and Science Parks in an Entrepreneurial Ecosystem: Capabilities supporting BioBay at Suzhou Industry Park, China
- 2019
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Ingår i: Zheijang University Seminar series.
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Public-policy makers in emerging economics often want to stimulate knowledge- intensive industries, as a means to catch-up with innovation-based advanced economies. Literature on regional innovation systems and ecosystems have extensively studied agglomeration effects, and often with a focus upon the particular role of stimulating universities and scientific research. Yet funding science is not enough, due to what we identify as three complex issues related to the development of capabilities in firms and public agencies at the local-global interface. In catch-up theory, public policy which stimulates science-based industries can be seen as policy reacting to a short window of technological opportunity. In this paper, we are specifically focused upon public-private co-evolution in the biotech-pharmaceutical industry, which is highly dependent upon internal R&D and public science but also specific knowledge about national markets and global regulations. Based upon a seven-year qualitative study, we focus upon a science park in a second tier Chinese city, namely BioBay at Suzhou Industry Park. We propose a co-evolutionary process model of one element of the ecosystem, namely how increasing scale, learning and interactions between knowledge-intensive entrepreneurial firms and science parks lead to the development of both public and private capabilities to react upon this technological opportunity through entrepreneurship.
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| 8. |
- DeWitt, Jamie C., et al.
(författare)
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Zürich II Statement on Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFASs) : Scientific and Regulatory Needs
- 2024
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Ingår i: Environmental Science and Technology Letters. - 2328-8930. ; 11:8, s. 786-797
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) are a class of synthetic organic chemicals of global concern. A group of 36 scientists and regulators from 18 countries held a hybrid workshop in 2022 in Zürich, Switzerland. The workshop, a sequel to a previous Zürich workshop held in 2017, deliberated on progress in the last five years and discussed further needs for cooperative scientific research and regulatory action on PFASs. This review reflects discussion and insights gained during and after this workshop and summarizes key signs of progress in science and policy, ongoing critical issues to be addressed, and possible ways forward. Some key take home messages include: 1) understanding of human health effects continues to develop dramatically, 2) regulatory guidelines continue to drop, 3) better understanding of emissions and contamination levels is needed in more parts of the world, 4) analytical methods, while improving, still only cover around 50 PFASs, and 5) discussions of how to group PFASs for regulation (including subgroupings) have gathered momentum with several jurisdictions proposing restricting a large proportion of PFAS uses. It was concluded that more multi-group exchanges are needed in the future and that there should be a greater diversity of participants at future workshops.
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| 9. |
- Hou, Ai Jun, et al.
(författare)
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Pricing Cryptocurrency Options
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Financial Econometrics. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1479-8409 .- 1479-8417. ; 18:2, s. 250-279
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Cryptocurrencies (CCs), especially bitcoin (BTC), which comprises a new digital asset class, have drawn extraordinary worldwide attention. The characteristics of the CC/BTC include a high level of speculation, extreme volatility and price discontinuity. We propose a pricing mechanism based on a stochastic volatility with a correlated jump (SVCJ) model and compare it to a flexible cojump model by Bandi and Renò (2016). The estimation results of both models confirm the impact of jumps and cojumps on options obtained via simulation and an analysis of the implied volatility curve. We show that a sizeable proportion of price jumps is significantly and contemporaneously anticorrelated with jumps in volatility. Our study comprises pioneering research on pricing BTC options. We show how the proposed pricing mechanism underlines the importance of jumps in CC markets.
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| 10. |
- Li, Yibing, et al.
(författare)
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Digital twin-based job shop anomaly detection and dynamic scheduling
- 2023
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Ingår i: Robotics and Computer-Integrated Manufacturing. - : Elsevier BV. - 0736-5845 .- 1879-2537. ; 79
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Scheduling scheme is one of the critical factors affecting the production efficiency. In the actual production, anomalies will lead to scheduling deviation and influence scheme execution, which makes the traditional job shop scheduling methods are not sufficient to meet the needs of real-time and accuracy. By introducing digital twin (DT), further convergence between physical and virtual space can be achieved, which enormously reinforces real-time performance of job shop scheduling. For flexible job shop, an anomaly detection and dynamic scheduling framework based on DT is proposed in this paper. Previously, a multi-level production process monitoring model is proposed to detect anomaly. Then, a real-time optimization strategy of scheduling scheme based on rolling window mechanism is explored to enforce dynamic scheduling optimization. Finally, the improved grey wolf optimization algorithm is introduced to solve the scheduling problem. Under this framework, it is possible to monitor the deviation between the actual processing state and the planned processing state in real time and effectively reduce the deviation. An equipment manufacturing job shop is taken as a case study to illustrate the effectiveness and advantages of the proposed framework.
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