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1.
  • Lozano, Rafael, et al. (författare)
  • Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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2.
  • Berndt, Sonja I., et al. (författare)
  • Genome-wide association study identifies multiple risk loci for chronic lymphocytic leukemia
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 45:8, s. 868-U202
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have previously identified 13 loci associated with risk of chronic lymphocytic leukemia or small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL). To identify additional CLL susceptibility loci, we conducted the largest meta-analysis for CLL thus far, including four GWAS with a total of 3,100 individuals with CLL (cases) and 7,667 controls. In the meta-analysis, we identified ten independent associated SNPs in nine new loci at 10q23.31 (ACTA2 or FAS (ACTA2/FAS), P = 1.22 x 10(-14)), 18q21.33 (BCL2, P = 7.76 x 10(-11)), 11p15.5 (C11orf21, P = 2.15 x 10(-10)), 4q25 (LEF1, P = 4.24 x 10(-10)), 2q33.1 (CASP10 or CASP8 (CASP10/CASP8), P = 2.50 x 10(-9)), 9p21.3 (CDKN2B-AS1, P = 1.27 x 10(-8)), 18q21.32 (PMAIP1, P = 2.51 x 10(-8)), 15q15.1 (BMF, P = 2.71 x 10(-10)) and 2p22.2 (QPCT, P = 1.68 x 10(-8)), as well as an independent signal at an established locus (2q13, ACOXL, P = 2.08 x 10(-18)). We also found evidence for two additional promising loci below genome-wide significance at 8q22.3 (ODF1, P = 5.40 x 10(-8)) and 5p15.33 (TERT, P = 1.92 x 10(-7)). Although further studies are required, the proximity of several of these loci to genes involved in apoptosis suggests a plausible underlying biological mechanism.
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3.
  • Berndt, Sonja I., et al. (författare)
  • Meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies discovers multiple loci for chronic lymphocytic leukemia
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 7
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is a common lymphoid malignancy with strong heritability. To further understand the genetic susceptibility for CLL and identify common loci associated with risk, we conducted a meta-analysis of four genome-wide association studies (GWAS) composed of 3,100 cases and 7,667 controls with follow-up replication in 1,958 cases and 5,530 controls. Here we report three new loci at 3p24.1 (rs9880772, EOMES, P = 2.55 x 10(-11)), 6p25.2 (rs73718779, SERPINB6, P = 1.97 x 10(-8)) and 3q28 (rs9815073, LPP, P = 3.62 x 10(-8)), as well as a new independent SNP at the known 2q13 locus (rs9308731, BCL2L11, P = 1.00 x 10(-11)) in the combined analysis. We find suggestive evidence (P<5 x 10(-7)) for two additional new loci at 4q24 (rs10028805, BANK1, P = 7.19 x 10(-8)) and 3p22.2 (rs1274963, CSRNP1, P = 2.12 x 10(-7)). Pathway analyses of new and known CLL loci consistently show a strong role for apoptosis, providing further evidence for the importance of this biological pathway in CLL susceptibility.
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4.
  • Gaziano, Liam, et al. (författare)
  • Mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction and cardiovascular disease : Observational and mendelian randomization analyses
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Circulation. - : Wolters Kluwer. - 0009-7322 .- 1524-4539. ; 146:20, s. 1507-1517
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: End-stage renal disease is associated with a high risk of cardiovascular events. It is unknown, however, whether mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke.METHODS: Observational analyses were conducted using individual-level data from 4 population data sources (Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD [European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Cardiovascular Disease Study], Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank), comprising 648 135 participants with no history of cardiovascular disease or diabetes at baseline, yielding 42 858 and 15 693 incident CHD and stroke events, respectively, during 6.8 million person-years of follow-up. Using a genetic risk score of 218 variants for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), we conducted Mendelian randomization analyses involving 413 718 participants (25 917 CHD and 8622 strokes) in EPIC-CVD, Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank.RESULTS: There were U-shaped observational associations of creatinine-based eGFR with CHD and stroke, with higher risk in participants with eGFR values <60 or >105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2, compared with those with eGFR between 60 and 105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2. Mendelian randomization analyses for CHD showed an association among participants with eGFR <60 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2, with a 14% (95% CI, 3%-27%) higher CHD risk per 5 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2 lower genetically predicted eGFR, but not for those with eGFR >105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2. Results were not materially different after adjustment for factors associated with the eGFR genetic risk score, such as lipoprotein(a), triglycerides, hemoglobin A1c, and blood pressure. Mendelian randomization results for stroke were nonsignificant but broadly similar to those for CHD.CONCLUSIONS: In people without manifest cardiovascular disease or diabetes, mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to risk of CHD, highlighting the potential value of preventive approaches that preserve and modulate kidney function.
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5.
  • Kaaks, Rudolf, et al. (författare)
  • Lag Times between Lymphoproliferative Disorder and Clinical Diagnosis of Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia : A Prospective Analysis Using Plasma Soluble CD23
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers and Prevention. - 1055-9965 .- 1538-7755. ; 24:3, s. 538-545
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is a chronic disease that often progresses slowly from a precursor stage, monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis (MBL), and that can remain undiagnosed for a long time. Methods: Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer cohort, we measured prediagnostic plasma sCD23 for 179 individuals who eventually were diagnosed with CLL and an equal number of matched control subjects who remained free of cancer. Results: In a very large proportion of CLL patients' plasma sCD23 was clearly elevated 7 or more years before diagnosis. Considering sCD23 as a disease predictor, the area under the ROC curve (AUROC) was 0.95 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.90-1.00] for CLL diagnosed within 0.1 to 2.7 years after blood measurement, 0.90 (95% CI, 0.86-0.95) for diagnosis within 2.8 to 7.3 years, and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.65-0.86) for CLL diagnosed between 7.4 and 12.5 years. Even at a 7.4-year and longer time interval, elevated plasma sCD23 could predict a later clinical diagnosis of CLL with 100% specificity at > 45% sensitivity. Conclusions: Our findings provide unique documentation for the very long latency times during which measurable B-cell lymphoproliferative disorder exists before the clinical manifestation of CLL. Impact: Our findings have relevance for the interpretation of prospective epidemiologic studies on the causes of CLL in terms of reverse causation bias. The lag times indicate a time frame within which an early detection of CLL would be theoretically possible. (c) 2014 AACR.
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6.
  • Kelly, Rachel S., et al. (författare)
  • Determinants of the t(14;18) translocation and their role in t(14;18)-positive follicular lymphoma
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Cancer Causes and Control. - : Springer Netherlands. - 0957-5243 .- 1573-7225. ; 26:12, s. 1845-1855
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Purpose: The strong association between t(14;18) translocation and follicular lymphoma (FL) is well known. However, the determinants of this chromosomal aberration and their role in t(14;18) associated FL remain to be established.Methods: t(14;18) frequency within the B cell lymphoma 2 major breakpoint region was determined for 135 incident FL cases and 251 healthy controls as part of a nested case–control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer cohort. Quantitative real-time PCR was performed in DNA extracted from blood samples taken at recruitment. The relationship between prevalence and frequency of the translocation with baseline anthropometric, lifestyle, and dietary factors in cases and controls was determined. Unconditional logistic regression was used to explore whether the risk of FL associated with these factors differed in t(14;18)+ as compared to t(14;18)− cases.Results: Among incident FL cases, educational level (χ 2 p = 0.021) and height (χ 2 p = 0.025) were positively associated with t(14;18) prevalence, and cases with high frequencies [t(14;18)HF] were significantly taller (t test p value = 0.006). These findings were not replicated in the control population, although there were a number of significant associations with dietary variables. Further analyses revealed that height was a significant risk factor for t(14;18)+ FL [OR 6.31 (95 % CI 2.11, 18.9) in the tallest versus the shortest quartile], but not t(14;18)− cases.Conclusions: These findings suggest a potential role for lifestyle factors in the prevalence and frequency of the t(14;18) translocation. The observation that the etiology of FL may differ by t(14;18) status, particularly with regard to height, supports the subdivision of FL by translocation status.
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7.
  • Nieters, Alexandra, et al. (författare)
  • Prediagnostic immunoglobulin E levels and risk of chronic lymphocytic leukemia, other lymphomas and multiple myeloma-results of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Carcinogenesis. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0143-3334 .- 1460-2180. ; 35:12, s. 2716-2722
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Previous epidemiological studies suggest an inverse association between allergies, marked by elevated immunoglobulin (Ig) E levels, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) risk. The evidence, however, is inconsistent and prospective data are sparse. We examined the association between prediagnostic total (low: <20; intermediate: 20-100; high >100 kU/l) and specific IgE (negative: <0.35; positive ≥0.35 kU/I) concentrations against inhalant antigens and lymphoma risk in a study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. A total of 1021 incident cases and matched controls of NHL, multiple myeloma (MM) and Hodgkin lymphoma with a mean follow-up time of 7 years were investigated. Multivariate-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated by conditional logistic regression. Specific IgE was not associated with the risk of MM, B-cell NHL and B-cell NHL subtypes. In contrast, total IgE levels were inversely associated with the risk of MM [high level: OR = 0.40 (95% CI = 0.21-0.79)] and B-cell NHL [intermediate level: OR = 0.68 (95% CI = 0.53-0.88); high level: OR = 0.62 (95% CI = 0.44-0.86)], largely on the basis of a strong inverse association with chronic lymphocytic leukemia [CLL; intermediate level: OR = 0.49 (95% CI = 0.30-0.80); high level: OR = 0.13 (95% CI = 0.05-0.35)] risk. The inverse relationship for CLL remained significant for those diagnosed 5 years after baseline. The findings of this large prospective study demonstrated significantly lower prediagnostic total IgE levels among CLL and MM cases compared with matched controls. This corresponds to the clinical immunodeficiency state often observed in CLL patients prior to diagnosis. No support for an inverse association between prediagnostic levels of specific IgE and NHL risk was found.
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8.
  • Reitsma, Marissa B., et al. (författare)
  • Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 389:10082, s. 1885-1906
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background The scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death and disability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitment. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) offers a robust platform through which global, regional, and national progress toward achieving smoking-related targets can be assessed. Methods We synthesised 2818 data sources with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and produced estimates of daily smoking prevalence by sex, age group, and year for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We analysed 38 risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality and disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We then performed a cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. We also did a decomposition analysis, in which we parsed out changes in all-cause smoking-attributable DALYs due to changes in population growth, population ageing, smoking prevalence, and risk-deleted DALY rates. Finally, we explored results by level of development using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Worldwide, the age-standardised prevalence of daily smoking was 25.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24.2-25.7) for men and 5.4% (5.1-5.7) for women, representing 28.4% (25.8-31.1) and 34.4% (29.4-38.6) reductions, respectively, since 1990. A greater percentage of countries and territories achieved significant annualised rates of decline in smoking prevalence from 1990 to 2005 than in between 2005 and 2015; however, only four countries had significant annualised increases in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015 (Congo [Brazzaville] and Azerbaijan for men and Kuwait and Timor-Leste for women). In 2015, 11.5% of global deaths (6.4 million [95% UI 5.7-7.0 million]) were attributable to smoking worldwide, of which 52.2% took place in four countries (China, India, the USA, and Russia). Smoking was ranked among the five leading risk factors by DALYs in 109 countries and territories in 2015, rising from 88 geographies in 1990. In terms of birth cohorts, male smoking prevalence followed similar age patterns across levels of SDI, whereas much more heterogeneity was found in age patterns for female smokers by level of development. While smoking prevalence and risk-deleted DALY rates mostly decreased by sex and SDI quintile, population growth, population ageing, or a combination of both, drove rises in overall smoking-attributable DALYs in low-SDI to middle-SDI geographies between 2005 and 2015. Interpretation The pace of progress in reducing smoking prevalence has been heterogeneous across geographies, development status, and sex, and as highlighted by more recent trends, maintaining past rates of decline should not be taken for granted, especially in women and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. Beyond the effect of the tobacco industry and societal mores, a crucial challenge facing tobacco control initiatives is that demographic forces are poised to heighten smoking's global toll, unless progress in preventing initiation and promoting cessation can be substantially accelerated. Greater success in tobacco control is possible but requires effective, comprehensive, and adequately implemented and enforced policies, which might in turn require global and national levels of political commitment beyond what has been achieved during the past 25 years.
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9.
  • Roulland, Sandrine, et al. (författare)
  • t(14;18) Translocation: A Predictive Blood Biomarker for Follicular Lymphoma
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Journal of Clinical Oncology. - 1527-7755 .- 0732-183X. ; 32:13, s. 1347-1347
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Purpose The (14;18) translocation constitutes both a genetic hallmark and critical early event in the natural history of follicular lymphoma (FL). However, t(14;18) is also detectable in the blood of otherwise healthy persons, and its relationship with progression to disease remains unclear. Here we sought to determine whether t(14;18)-positive cells in healthy individuals represent tumor precursors and whether their detection could be used as an early predictor for FL. Participants and Methods Among 520,000 healthy participants enrolled onto the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition) cohort, we identified 100 who developed FL 2 to 161 months after enrollment. Prediagnostic blood from these and 218 controls were screened for t(14;18) using sensitive polymerase chain reaction-based assays. Results were subsequently validated in an independent cohort (65 case participants; 128 controls). Clonal relationships between t(14;18) cells and FL were also assessed by molecular backtracking of paired prediagnostic blood and tumor samples. Results Clonal analysis of t(14;18) junctions in paired prediagnostic blood versus tumor samples demonstrated that progression to FL occurred from t(14;18)-positive committed precursors. Furthermore, healthy participants at enrollment who developed FL up to 15 years later showed a markedly higher t(14;18) prevalence and frequency than controls (P < .001). Altogether, we estimated a 23-fold higher risk of subsequent FL in blood samples associated with a frequency > 10(-4) (odds ratio, 23.17; 95% CI, 9.98 to 67.31; P < .001). Remarkably, risk estimates remained high and significant up to 15 years before diagnosis. Conclusion High t(14;18) frequency in blood from healthy individuals defines the first predictive biomarker for FL, effective years before diagnosis.
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10.
  • Sampson, Joshua N., et al. (författare)
  • Analysis of Heritability and Shared Heritability Based on Genome-Wide Association Studies for 13 Cancer Types
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Journal of the National Cancer Institute. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0027-8874 .- 1460-2105. ; 107:12
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Studies of related individuals have consistently demonstrated notable familial aggregation of cancer. We aim to estimate the heritability and genetic correlation attributable to the additive effects of common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for cancer at 13 anatomical sites. Methods: Between 2007 and 2014, the US National Cancer Institute has generated data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for 49 492 cancer case patients and 34 131 control patients. We apply novel mixed model methodology (GCTA) to this GWAS data to estimate the heritability of individual cancers, as well as the proportion of heritability attributable to cigarette smoking in smoking-related cancers, and the genetic correlation between pairs of cancers. Results: GWAS heritability was statistically significant at nearly all sites, with the estimates of array-based heritability, h(l)(2), on the liability threshold (LT) scale ranging from 0.05 to 0.38. Estimating the combined heritability of multiple smoking characteristics, we calculate that at least 24% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 14% to 37%) and 7% (95% CI = 4% to 11%) of the heritability for lung and bladder cancer, respectively, can be attributed to genetic determinants of smoking. Most pairs of cancers studied did not show evidence of strong genetic correlation. We found only four pairs of cancers with marginally statistically significant correlations, specifically kidney and testes (rho = 0.73, SE = 0.28), diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) and pediatric osteosarcoma (rho = 0.53, SE = 0.21), DLBCL and chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) (rho = 0.51, SE = 0.18), and bladder and lung (rho = 0.35, SE = 0.14). Correlation analysis also indicates that the genetic architecture of lung cancer differs between a smoking population of European ancestry and a nonsmoking Asian population, allowing for the possibility that the genetic etiology for the same disease can vary by population and environmental exposures. Conclusion: Our results provide important insights into the genetic architecture of cancers and suggest new avenues for investigation.
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