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| 2. |
- Griswold, Max G., et al.
(författare)
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Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
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| 3. |
- Kasliwal, Mansi M., et al.
(författare)
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Kilonova Luminosity Function Constraints Based on Zwicky Transient Facility Searches for 13 Neutron Star Merger Triggers during O3
- 2020
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 905:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a systematic search for optical counterparts to 13 gravitational wave (GW) triggers involving at least one neutron star during LIGO/Virgo's third observing run (O3). We searched binary neutron star (BNS) and neutron star black hole (NSBH) merger localizations with the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) and undertook follow-up with the Global Relay of Observatories Watching Transients Happen (GROWTH) collaboration. The GW triggers had a median localization area of 4480 deg(2), a median distance of 267 Mpc, and false-alarm rates ranging from 1.5 to 10(-25) yr(-1). The ZTF coverage in the g and r bands had a median enclosed probability of 39%, median depth of 20.8 mag, and median time lag between merger and the start of observations of 1.5 hr. The O3 follow-up by the GROWTH team comprised 340 UltraViolet/Optical/InfraRed (UVOIR) photometric points, 64 OIR spectra, and three radio images using 17 different telescopes. We find no promising kilonovae (radioactivity-powered counterparts), and we show how to convert the upper limits to constrain the underlying kilonova luminosity function. Initially, we assume that all GW triggers are bona fide astrophysical events regardless of false-alarm rate and that kilonovae accompanying BNS and NSBH mergers are drawn from a common population; later, we relax these assumptions. Assuming that all kilonovae are at least as luminous as the discovery magnitude of GW170817 (-16.1 mag), we calculate that our joint probability of detecting zero kilonovae is only 4.2%. If we assume that all kilonovae are brighter than -16.6 mag (the extrapolated peak magnitude of GW170817) and fade at a rate of 1 mag day(-1) (similar to GW170817), the joint probability of zero detections is 7%. If we separate the NSBH and BNS populations based on the online classifications, the joint probability of zero detections, assuming all kilonovae are brighter than -16.6 mag, is 9.7% for NSBH and 7.9% for BNS mergers. Moreover, no more than <57% (<89%) of putative kilonovae could be brighter than -16.6 mag assuming flat evolution (fading by 1 mag day(-1)) at the 90% confidence level. If we further take into account the online terrestrial probability for each GW trigger, we find that no more than <68% of putative kilonovae could be brighter than -16.6 mag. Comparing to model grids, we find that some kilonovae must have M-ej M, X-lan > 10(-4), or > 30 degrees to be consistent with our limits. We look forward to searches in the fourth GW observing run; even 17 neutron star mergers with only 50% coverage to a depth of -16 mag would constrain the maximum fraction of bright kilonovae to <25%.
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| 4. |
- Perley, Daniel A., et al.
(författare)
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The fast, luminous ultraviolet transient AT2018cow : extreme supernova, or disruption of a star by an intermediate-mass black hole?
- 2019
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Ingår i: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 484:1, s. 1031-1049
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Wide-field optical surveys have begun to uncover large samples of fast (t(rise) less than or similar to 5 d), luminous (M-peak < 18), blue transients. While commonly attributed to the breakout of a supernova shock into a dense wind, the great distances to the transients of this class found so far have hampered detailed investigation of their properties. We present photometry and spectroscopy from a comprehensive worldwide campaign to observe AT 2018cow (ATLAS 18qqn), the first fast-luminous optical transient to be found in real time at low redshift. Our first spectra (<2 days after discovery) are entirely featureless. A very broad absorption feature suggestive of near-relativistic velocities develops between 3 and 8 days, then disappears. Broad emission features of H and He develop after >10 days. The spectrum remains extremely hot throughout its evolution, and the photospheric radius contracts with time (receding below R < 10 (14) cm after 1 month). This behaviour does not match that of any known supernova, although a relativistic jet within a fallback supernova could explain some of the observed features. Alternatively, the transient could originate from the disruption of a star by an intermediate-mass black hole, although this would require long-lasting emission of highly super-Eddington thermal radiation. In either case, AT 2018cow suggests that the population of fast luminous transients represents a new class of astrophysical event. Intensive follow-up of this event in its late phases, and of any future events found at comparable distance, will be essential to better constrain their origins.
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| 5. |
- Vos, Theo, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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| 6. |
- Ahumada, Tomas, et al.
(författare)
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In Search of Short Gamma-Ray Burst Optical Counterparts with the Zwicky Transient Facility
- 2022
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 932:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) triggers on-board in response to ∼40 short gamma-ray bursts (SGRBs) per year; however, their large localization regions have made the search for optical counterparts a challenging endeavour. We have developed and executed an extensive program with the wide field of view of the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) camera, mounted on the Palomar 48 inch Oschin telescope (P48), to perform target-of-opportunity (ToO) observations on 10 Fermi-GBM SGRBs during 2018 and 2020–2021. Bridging the large sky areas with small field-of-view optical telescopes in order to track the evolution of potential candidates, we look for the elusive SGRB afterglows and kilonovae (KNe) associated with these high-energy events. No counterpart has yet been found, even though more than 10 ground-based telescopes, part of the Global Relay of Observatories Watching Transients Happen (GROWTH) network, have taken part in these efforts. The candidate selection procedure and the follow-up strategy have shown that ZTF is an efficient instrument for searching for poorly localized SGRBs, retrieving a reasonable number of candidates to follow up and showing promising capabilities as the community approaches the multi-messenger era. Based on the median limiting magnitude of ZTF, our searches would have been able to retrieve a GW170817-like event up to ∼200 Mpc and SGRB afterglows to z = 0.16 or 0.4, depending on the assumed underlying energy model. Future ToOs will expand the horizon to z = 0.2 and 0.7, respectively.
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| 7. |
- Andreoni, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Fast-transient Searches in Real Time with ZTFReST : Identification of Three Optically Discovered Gamma-Ray Burst Afterglows and New Constraints on the Kilonova Rate
- 2021
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 918:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The most common way to discover extragalactic fast transients, which fade within a few nights in the optical, is via follow-up of gamma-ray burst and gravitational-wave triggers. However, wide-field surveys have the potential to identify rapidly fading transients independently of such external triggers. The volumetric survey speed of the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) makes it sensitive to objects as faint and fast fading as kilonovae, the optical counterparts to binary neutron star mergers, out to almost 200 Mpc. We introduce an open-source software infrastructure, the ZTF REaltime Search and Triggering, ZTFReST, designed to identify kilonovae and fast transients in ZTF data. Using the ZTF alert stream combined with forced point-spread-function photometry, we have implemented automated candidate ranking based on their photometric evolution and fitting to kilonova models. Automated triggering, with a human in the loop for monitoring, of follow-up systems has also been implemented. In 13 months of science validation, we found several extragalactic fast transients independently of any external trigger, including two supernovae with post-shock cooling emission, two known afterglows with an associated gamma-ray burst (ZTF20abbiixp, ZTF20abwysqy), two known afterglows without any known gamma-ray counterpart (ZTF20aajnksq, ZTF21aaeyldq), and three new fast-declining sources (ZTF20abtxwfx, ZTF20acozryr, ZTF21aagwbjr) that are likely associated with GRB200817A, GRB201103B, and GRB210204A. However, we have not found any objects that appear to be kilonovae. We constrain the rate of GW170817-like kilonovae to R < 900 Gpc(-3) yr(-1) (95% confidence). A framework such as ZTFReST could become a prime tool for kilonova and fast-transient discovery with the Vera Rubin Observatory.
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| 8. |
- Meena, Ashish Kumar, et al.
(författare)
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Two Lensed Star Candidates at z ≃ 4.8 behind the Galaxy Cluster MACS J0647.7+7015
- 2023
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8205 .- 2041-8213. ; 944:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report the discovery of two extremely magnified lensed star candidates behind the galaxy cluster MACS J0647.7+015 using recent multiband James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) NIRCam observations. The star candidates are seen in a previously known, zphot ≃ 4.8 dropout giant arc that straddles the critical curve. The candidates lie near the expected critical curve position, but lack clear counter-images on the other side of it, suggesting these are possibly stars undergoing caustic crossings. We present revised lensing models for the cluster, including multiply imaged galaxies newly identified in the JWST data, and use them to estimate background macro-magnifications of at least ≳90 and ≳50 at the positions of the two candidates, respectively. With these values, we expect effective, caustic-crossing magnifications of ∼[103–105] for the two star candidates. The spectral energy distributions of the two candidates match well the spectra of B-type stars with best-fit surface temperatures of ∼10,000 K, and ∼12,000 K, respectively, and we show that such stars with masses ≳20 M⊙ and ≳50 M⊙, respectively, can become sufficiently magnified to be observable. We briefly discuss other alternative explanations and conclude that these objects are likely lensed stars, but also acknowledge that the less-magnified candidate may alternatively reside in a star cluster. These star candidates constitute the second highest-redshift examples to date after Earendel at zphot ≃ 6.2, establishing further the potential of studying extremely magnified stars at high redshifts with JWST. Planned future observations, including with NIRSpec, will enable a more detailed view of these candidates in the near future.
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| 9. |
- Purdum, Josiah N., et al.
(författare)
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Time-series and Phase-curve Photometry of the Episodically Active Asteroid (6478) Gault in a Quiescent State Using APO, GROWTH, P200, and ZTF
- 2021
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8205 .- 2041-8213. ; 911:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We observed the episodically active asteroid (6478) Gault in 2020 with multiple telescopes in Asia and North America and found that it is no longer active after its recent outbursts at the end of 2018 and the start of 2019. The inactivity during this apparition allowed us to measure the absolute magnitude of Gault of H ( r ) = 14.63 +/- 0.02, G ( r ) = 0.21 +/- 0.02 from our secular phase-curve observations. In addition, we were able to constrain Gault's rotation period using time-series photometric lightcurves taken over 17 hr on multiple days in 2020 August, September, and October. The photometric lightcurves have a repeating less than or similar to 0.05 mag feature suggesting that (6478) Gault has a rotation period of similar to 2.5 hr and may have a semispherical or top-like shape, much like the near-Earth asteroids Ryugu and Bennu. The rotation period of similar to 2.5 hr is near the expected critical rotation period for an asteroid with the physical properties of (6478) Gault, suggesting that its activity observed over multiple epochs is due to surface mass shedding from its fast rotation spin-up by the Yarkovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack effect.
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| 10. |
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Spatially Resolved Stellar Populations of 0.3 < z < 6.0 Galaxies in WHL 0137–08 and MACS 0647+70 Clusters as Revealed by JWST : How Do Galaxies Grow and Quench over Cosmic Time?
- 2023
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 945:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We study the spatially resolved stellar populations of 444 galaxies at 0.3 < z < 6.0 in two clusters (WHL 0137–08 and MACS 0647+70) and a blank field, combining imaging data from the Hubble Space Telescope and JWST to perform spatially resolved spectral energy distribution (SED) modeling using ᴘɪXᴇᴅꜰɪᴛ. The high spatial resolution of the imaging data combined with magnification from gravitational lensing in the cluster fields allows us to resolve a large fraction of our galaxies (109) to subkiloparsec scales. At redshifts around cosmic noon and higher (2.5 ≲ z ≲ 6.0), we find mass-doubling times to be independent of radius, inferred from flat specific star formation rate (sSFR) radial profiles and similarities between the half-mass and half-SFR radii. At lower redshifts (1.5 ≲ z ≲ 2.5), a significant fraction of our star-forming galaxies shows evidence for nuclear starbursts, inferred from a centrally elevated sSFR and a much smaller half-SFR radius compared to the half-mass radius. At later epochs, we find more galaxies suppress star formation in their centers but are still actively forming stars in the disk. Overall, these trends point toward a picture of inside-out galaxy growth consistent with theoretical models and simulations. We also observe a tight relationship between the central mass surface density and global stellar mass with ∼0.38 dex scatter. Our analysis demonstrates the potential of spatially resolved SED analysis with JWST data. Future analysis with larger samples will be able to further explore the assembly of galaxy mass and the growth of their structures.
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