| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 3. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(författare)
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- 2020
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Verma, Sangeeta, et al.
(författare)
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Simplified SMA-inspired 1-parameter SCS-CN model for runoff estimation
- 2018
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Ingår i: Arabian Journal of Geosciences. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1866-7511 .- 1866-7538. ; 11:15
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study proposes a simplified 1-parameter SCS-CN model (M5) based on Mishra-Singh (2002) model and soil moisture accounting (SMA) procedure for surface runoff estimation and compares its performance with the existing SCS-CN method (SCS, 1956) (M1), Michel 1-P model (Water Resour Res 41:1-6, 2005) (M2), Sahu 1-P model (Hydrol Process 21:2872-2881, 2007) (M3), and Ajmal et al. model (J Hydrol 530:623-633, 2015) (M4) using large rainfall–runoff dataset of 48,763 events from123 USDA-ARS watersheds. The performance of models was evaluated using three statistical error indices such as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), root mean square error (RMSE), percentage bias (PBIAS), and rank and grading system (RGS). Based on the results obtained, the models can be ranked as follows: M5 > M4 > M3 > M1 > M2, i.e., model M5 outperformed all the remaining four models M1–M4 and hence is recommended for field applications.
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| 6. |
- Kumar, Vipin, et al.
(författare)
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First-principles calculations to investigate the dielectric and optical anisotropy in two-dimensional monolayer calcium and magnesium difluorides in the vacuum ultraviolet
- 2023
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Ingår i: Journal of Physics and Chemistry of Solids. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-3697 .- 1879-2553. ; 181
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Anisotropic dielectric and optical properties of two-dimensional (2D) calcium and magnesium difluorides were investigated in the vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) region of the electromagnetic spectrum (EM) using the first principles density functional theory (DFT). The anisotropy between the in-plane and out-of-plane directions shows that these materials are uniaxial, exhibiting optical and dielectric anisotropy. The optical functions of these anisotropic materials-optical absorption, photoconductivity, refractive index, reflection and extinction coefficients, and electron energy loss (EEL) spectra-are calculated in the framework of DFT. The low refractive index values and relatively small extinction coefficient make these materials alternative low-index 2D materials for the long wavelengths in the VUV region of the EM spectrum. The reflection and transmission spectra indicate the antireflective property of these materials. The calculated EEL function shows less energy loss of fast-traveling electrons in the material's medium. The maxima in the EEL spectrum are the main feature of plasma oscillations. The dissipation in the incident light radiation energy propagating through the dielectric medium is estimated with the dielectric loss tangent (tan & delta;). The magnesium difluoride is identified as a less dielectric loss medium than calcium difluoride in the VUV region. The present results suggest that these 2D materials are promising in low refractive index, high reflective, and antireflective coating materials in optoelectronic device applications. Also, electronic studies revealed that these are excellent materials for gate insulators in field-effect transistors based on 2D electronic materials.
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| 7. |
- Griswold, Max G., et al.
(författare)
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Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
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| 8. |
- Kumar, Vipin, et al.
(författare)
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Anisotropic properties of two-dimensional (2D) tin dihalide (SnX2, X = Cl, Br, I) monolayer binary materials
- 2024
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Ingår i: Journal of Physics. - : Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP). - 0953-8984 .- 1361-648X. ; 36:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper investigated the electronic properties and photoresponse of two-dimensional SnX2 (X = Cl, Br, I) monolayer binary materials using computational techniques. The calculated band structure and density of states indicate that these are large band gap semiconducting materials with an indirect band gap. The studied chemical bonding mechanism shows the existence of the hybrid bonding of ionic and covalent bonds in these dihalide materials. The valence band (VB) and conduction band (CB) edge positions are also estimated, using the concept of electronegativity and band gap, to investigate the photocatalytic activity of SnX2. Next, we investigated the polarization and energy-dependent dielectric and optical functions along the crystallographic axes of these materials in the linear response approach of the perturbing incident oscillating light field. These materials exhibit an anisotropic behavior of these functions, especially in the high-energy visible and low-energy ultraviolet (UV) regions. The absorption of incident light photons is very fast in SnI2 than SnBr2 and SnCl2 in the low-energy UV region. It demonstrates the higher absorption coefficient and optical conductivity in Snl2. The obtained average static refractive index of SnCl2 is comparable to that of glass (1.5), showing its application as transparent material. The low reflection coefficient, less than 20%, makes them superior for antireflection coating materials in the infrared and visible regions. The prominent energy loss peaks show the existence of plasmon resonances in these materials. The most of losses occur in the UV region. The investigated electronic and photoresponse properties indicate that these Sn-based dihalide materials are excellent for electronic devices and optoelectronic applications. Also, the calculated VB and CB edge positions with respect to the normal hydrogen electrode show the favorable water-splitting capability of these materials.
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| 9. |
- Kumar, Vipin, et al.
(författare)
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Two-dimensional (2D) MT2 (M = Ba, Hf, Si, Sr and T = F, O) monolayers for possible electronic and optoelectronic applications
- 2023
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Ingår i: Optical and quantum electronics. - : Springer. - 0306-8919 .- 1572-817X. ; 55
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The present work shed light on the structural, electronic, dielectric, and optical properties of MT2 (M = Ba, Hf, Si, Sr and T = F, O) two-dimensional (2D) monolayers using density functional theory. The investigated electronic properties indicate that these 2D monolayer materials exhibit insulating properties. The complex dielectric function is calculated to investigate the optical functions of these monolayer materials. The dielectric and optical calculations are performed for the electric field vectors' orientation parallel (E||x, i.e., in-plane direction) and perpendicular (E||z, i.e., out-of-plane direction) to the plane of these 2D monolayer materials in the energy range 0-60 eV. It is noticed that the dielectric and optical responses of BaF2, HfO2, and SrF2 are shifted toward the lower energy in the ultraviolet (UV) region compared to SiO2. It may be attributed to their larger ionic radii. Due to a similar chemical environment, the studied properties show similar behavior in BaF2 and SrF2. These 2D materials offer high absorption of incident light in a wide energy range of UV region, hence the higher extinction coefficient. The obtained reflection and transmission coefficients in the vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) wavelength region suggest the potential candidature of these materials for VUV optical coatings, such as reflection, bandpass, absorption edge filters, and avoiding solar heating. BaF2 and SrF2 can combine to make low-high refractive index pair material with high refractive index HfO2. The present results indicate that these 2D monolayer materials may be potential candidates for designing optical, photonic, and optoelectronic devices.
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| 10. |
- Ghosh, Supriya, et al.
(författare)
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Phonon Coupling with Excitons and Free Carriers in Formamidinium Lead Bromide Perovskite Nanocrystals
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Journal of Physical Chemistry Letters. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 1948-7185. ; 9:15, s. 4245-4250
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Organometal halide perovskites in the form of nanocrystals (NCs) have attracted enormous attention due to their unique optoelectronic and photoluminescence (PL) properties. Here, we examine the phase composition and the temperature dependence of emission line width broadening in formamidinium lead bromide (FAPbBr3) perovskite nanocrystals (NCs) for light-emitting applications and identify different charge-carrier scattering mechanisms. Our results show most of the emission is from the orthorhombic phase. The PL line width broadening at high temperature is dominated by the Fröhlich interaction between the free charge carriers and the optical phonons. At low temperatures, the peak of the PL spectrum exhibits a continuous red shift indicating an increase of excitons contribution at lower temperatures, and concurrently the line width also narrows down due to the inhibition of the optical phonons. From the temperature-dependent measurements, the coupling strength of both the charge phonon interaction and the exciton phonon interaction have been determined. The obtained results indicate that the charge phonon coupling strengths are higher compared to the exciton phonon coupling.
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