| 1. |
- Guo, Mingyang, et al.
(författare)
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Intercomparison of Thermal Regime Algorithms in 1-D Lake Models
- 2021
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Ingår i: Water resources research. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 0043-1397 .- 1944-7973. ; 57:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Lakes are an important component of the global weather and climate system, but the modeling of their thermal regimes has shown large uncertainties due to the highly diverse lake properties and model configurations. Here, we evaluate the algorithms of four key lake thermal processes including turbulent heat fluxes, wind-driven mixing, light extinction, and snow density, using a highly diverse lake data set provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) 2a lake sector. Algorithm codes are configured and run separately within the same parent model to rule out any interference from factors apart from the algorithms examined. Evaluations are based on both simulation accuracy and recalibration complexity for application to global lakes. For turbulent heat fluxes, the non-Monin-Obukhov similarity (MOS) based, more simplified algorithms perform better in predicting lake epilimnion temperatures and achieve high convergence in the values of the calibrated parameters. For wind-driven mixing, a two-algorithm strategy considering lake shape and season is suggested with the regular mixing algorithm used for spring and earlier summer and the mixing-enhanced algorithm for summer steady stratification and fall overturn periods. There are no evident differences in the simulated thermocline depths using different light extinction algorithms or the observation. Finally, for lake ice phenology, an optimal algorithm is decided for most northern lakes while the Arctic lakes require separate consideration. Our study provides highly practical guides for improving 1-D lake models and feasible parameterization strategies to better simulate global lake thermal regimes.
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| 2. |
- Guo, Mingyang, et al.
(författare)
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Validation and Sensitivity Analysis of a 1-D Lake Model Across Global Lakes
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 2169-897X .- 2169-8996. ; 126:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Lakes have important influence on weather and climate from local to global scales. However, their prediction using numerical models is notoriously difficult because lakes are highly heterogeneous across the globe, but observations are sparse. Here, we assessed the performance of a 1‐D lake model in simulating the thermal structures of 58 lakes with diverse morphometric and geographic characteristics by following the phase 2a local lake protocol of the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2a). After calibration, the root‐mean‐square errors (RMSE) were below 2°C for 70% and 75% of the lakes for epilimnion and full‐profile temperature simulations, with an average of 1.71°C and 1.43°C, respectively. The model performance mainly depended on lake shape rather than location, supporting the possibility of grouping model parameters by lake shape for global applications. Furthermore, through machine‐learning based parameter sensitivity tests, we identified turbulent heat fluxes, wind‐driven mixing, and water transparency as the major processes controlling lake thermal and mixing regimes. Snow density was also important for modeling the ice phenology of high‐latitude lakes. The relative influence of the key processes and the corresponding parameters mainly depended on lake latitude and depth. Turbulent heat fluxes showed a decreasing importance in affecting epilimnion temperature with increasing latitude. Wind‐driven mixing was less influential to lake stratification for deeper lakes while the impact of light extinction, on the contrary, showed a positive correlation with lake depth. Our findings may guide improvements in 1‐D lake model parameterizations to achieve higher fidelity in simulating global lake thermal dynamics.
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| 3. |
- Liu, Yubo, et al.
(författare)
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The disproportionate impact of enhanced evaporation from melting arctic sea ice on cold-season land precipitation trends
- 2024
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Ingår i: NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE. - 2397-3722. ; 7:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Diminishing Arctic sea ice has led to enhanced evaporation from the Arctic marginal seas (AMS), which is expected to alter precipitation over land. In this work, AMS evaporation is numerically tracked to quantify its contribution to cold-season (October-March) precipitation over land in the Northern Hemisphere during 1980-2021. Results show a significant 32% increase in AMS moisture contribution to land precipitation, corresponding to a 16% increase per million square km loss of sea ice area. Especially over the high-latitude land, despite the fractional contribution of AMS to precipitation being relatively low (8%), the augmented AMS evaporation contributed disproportionately (42%) to the observed upward trend in precipitation. Notably, northern East Siberia exhibited a substantial rise in both the amount and fraction of extreme snowfall sourced from the AMS. Our findings underscore the importance of the progressively ice-free Arctic as an important contributor to the escalating levels of cold-season precipitation and snowfall over northern high-latitude land.
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