| 1. |
|
|
| 2. |
- Hudson, Lawrence N, et al.
(author)
-
The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project
- 2017
-
In: Ecology and Evolution. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 2045-7758. ; 7:1, s. 145-188
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.
|
|
| 3. |
- Abdalla, H., et al.
(author)
-
Gamma-ray blazar spectra with HESS II mono analysis : The case of PKS2155-304 and PG1553+113
- 2017
-
In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 600
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Context. The addition of a 28 m Cherenkov telescope (CT5) to the H.E.S.S. array extended the experiment's sensitivity to lower energies. The lowest energy threshold is obtained using monoscopic analysis of data taken with CT5, providing access to gamma-ray energies below 100 GeV for small zenith angle observations. Such an extension of the instrument's energy range is particularly beneficial for studies of active galactic nuclei with soft spectra, as expected for those at a redshift >= 0.5. The high-frequency peaked BL Lac objects PKS 2155-304 (z = 0.116) and PG 1553 + 113 (0.43 < z < 0.58) are among the brightest objects in the gamma-ray sky, both showing clear signatures of gamma-ray absorption at E > 100 GeV interpreted as being due to interactions with the extragalactic background light (EBL). Aims. The aims of this work are twofold: to demonstrate the monoscopic analysis of CT5 data with a low energy threshold, and to obtain accurate measurements of the spectral energy distributions (SED) of PKS 2155-304 and PG 1553 + 113 near their SED peaks at energies approximate to 100 GeV. Methods. Multiple observational campaigns of PKS 2155 304 and PG 1553 + 113 were conducted during 2013 and 2014 using the full H.E.S.S. II instrument (CT1-5). A monoscopic analysis of the data taken with the new CT5 telescope was developed along with an investigation into the systematic uncertainties on the spectral parameters which are derived from this analysis. Results. Using the data from CT5, the energy spectra of PKS 2155 304 and PG 1553 + 113 were reconstructed down to conservative threshold energies of 80 GeV for PKS 2155 304, which transits near zenith, and 110 GeV for the more northern PG 1553 + 113. The measured spectra, well fitted in both cases by a log-parabola spectral model ( with a 5.0 similar to statistical preference for non-zero curvature for PKS 2155 304 and 4.5 sigma for PG 1553+113), were found consistent with spectra derived from contemporaneous Fermi-LAT data, indicating a sharp break in the observed spectra of both sources at E approximate to 100 GeV. When corrected for EBL absorption, the intrinsic H.E.S.S. II mono and Fermi-LAT spectrum of PKS 2155 304 was found to show significant curvature. For PG 1553+113, however, no significant detection of curvature in the intrinsic spectrum could be found within statistical and systematic uncertainties.
|
|
| 4. |
- Sherratt, K., et al.
(author)
-
Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
-
In: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
|
|
| 5. |
- Bernhard, G. H., et al.
(author)
-
Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation and interactions with climate change : UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, update 2019
- 2020
-
In: Photochemical and Photobiological Sciences. - : Royal Society of Chemistry. - 1474-905X .- 1474-9092. ; 19:5, s. 542-584
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This assessment, by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP), one of three Panels informing the Parties to the Montreal Protocol, provides an update, since our previous extensive assessment (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2019, 18, 595–828), of recent findings of current and projected interactive environmental effects of ultraviolet (UV) radiation, stratospheric ozone, and climate change. These effects include those on human health, air quality, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, biogeochemical cycles, and materials used in construction and other services. The present update evaluates further evidence of the consequences of human activity on climate change that are altering the exposure of organisms and ecosystems to UV radiation. This in turn reveals the interactive effects of many climate change factors with UV radiation that have implications for the atmosphere, feedbacks, contaminant fate and transport, organismal responses, and many outdoor materials including plastics, wood, and fabrics. The universal ratification of the Montreal Protocol, signed by 197 countries, has led to the regulation and phase-out of chemicals that deplete the stratospheric ozone layer. Although this treaty has had unprecedented success in protecting the ozone layer, and hence all life on Earth from damaging UV radiation, it is also making a substantial contribution to reducing climate warming because many of the chemicals under this treaty are greenhouse gases.
|
|
| 6. |
- Baeckstroem, P., et al.
(author)
-
Convenient Method for the Synthesis of Lineatin, a Pheromone Component of Trypodendron-Lineatum
- 1991
-
In: Journal of Organic Chemistry. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 0022-3263 .- 1520-6904. ; 56:10, s. 3358-3362
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Synthesis of racemic lineatin (1), a pheromone component of Trypodendron lineatum, is described. Condensation of 5-methyl-5-hexen-2-one (2) and triethyl phosphonoacetate with LiN(SiMe3)2 gave esters 3, which upon hydrolysis gave acids 4a-f. The bicyclo[3.2.0] ring compounds 5 and 6 were obtained via an intramolecular [2 + 2] addition by refluxing underivatized carboxylic acids 4a-f with NaOAc and Ac2O. Compound 5 was isomerized to the thermodynamically more stable isomer 6 using a Pd/C catalyst activated with hydrogen. Reduction of 6 with LiAlH4 gave the endo and exo isomers 7a and 7b (4:1). Isolation of the alcohol 7a followed by acetylation gave 8. Subsequent oxidation with OsO4 and methylmorpholine N-oxide gave diol 9. Cleavage of 9 with H5IO6 in diethyl ether gave keto aldehyde 10, which was converted to keto acetal 11. Treatment of 11 with MeMgBr followed by acidic workup gave 1. The overall efficiency is approximately 20%.
|
|
| 7. |
|
|
| 8. |
- Snyder, Gretchen L., et al.
(author)
-
Preclinical profile of ITI-214, an inhibitor of phosphodiesterase 1, for enhancement of memory performance in rats
- 2016
-
In: Psychopharmacology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0033-3158 .- 1432-2072. ; 233:17, s. 3113-3124
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Rationale: Therapeutic agents for memory enhancement in psychiatric disorders, such as schizophrenia, are urgently needed.Objective: The aim of this study is to characterize the preclinical profile of ITI-214, a potent inhibitor of phosphodiesterase 1 (PDE1).Methods: ITI-214 was assayed for inhibition of PDE1 versus other PDE enzyme families using recombinant human PDE enzymes and for off-target binding to 70 substrates (General SEP II diversity panel; Caliper Life Sciences). Effects of ITI-214 (0.1–10 mg/kg, po) on memory performance were assayed in rats using the novel object recognition (NOR) paradigm, with drug given at specified time points prior to or following exposure to objects in an open field. ITI-214 was evaluated for potential drug-drug interaction with risperidone in rats using conditioned avoidance response (CAR) and pharmacokinetic assessments.Results: ITI-214 inhibited PDE1A (Ki = 33 pmol) with >1000-fold selectivity for the nearest other PDE family (PDE4D) and displayed minimal off-target binding interactions in a 70-substrate selectivity profile. By using specific timing of oral ITI-214 administration, it was demonstrated in the NOR that ITI-214 is able to enhance acquisition, consolidation, and retrieval memory processes. All memory effects were in the absence of effects on exploratory behavior. ITI-214 did not disrupt the risperidone pharmacokinetic profile or effects in CAR.Conclusions: ITI-214 improved the memory processes of acquisition, consolidation, and retrieval across a broad dose range (0.1–10 mg/kg, po) without disrupting the antipsychotic-like activity of a clinical antipsychotic medication, specifically risperidone. Clinical development of ITI-214 is currently in progress.
|
|
| 9. |
- Zweifel, Ulla Li, 1967, et al.
(author)
-
High bacterial 16S rRNA gene diversity above the atmospheric boundary layer
- 2012
-
In: Aerobiologia. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0393-5965 .- 1573-3025. ; 28:4, s. 481-498
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The atmosphere is host to an omnipresent bacterial community that may influence fundamental atmospheric processes such as cloud formation and precipitation onset. Knowledge of this bacterial community is scarce, particularly in air masses relevant to cloud formation. Using a light aircraft, we sampled above the atmospheric boundary layer-that is, at heights at which cloud condensation occurs-over coastal areas of Sweden and Denmark in summer 2009. Enumeration indicated total bacterial numbers of 4 x 10(1) to 1.8 x 10(3) m(-3) air and colony-forming units of 0-6 bacteria m(-3) air. 16S rRNA gene libraries constructed from samples collected above the Baltic Sea coast revealed a highly diverse bacterial community dominated by species belonging to the genera Sphingomonas and Pseudomonas. Bacterial species known to carry ice-nucleating proteins were found in several samples. Modeled back trajectories suggested the potential sources of the sampled bacteria to be diverse geographic regions, including both marine and terrestrial environments in the northern hemisphere. Several samples contained 16S rRNA genes from plant chloroplasts, confirming a terrestrial contribution to these samples. Interestingly, the airborne bacterial community displayed an apparent seasonal succession that we tentatively ascribe to in situ succession in the atmosphere.
|
|
