| 2. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 3. |
- Inoue, Y., et al.
(författare)
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The association between economic development, lifestyle differentiation, and C-reactive protein concentration within rural communities in Hainan Island, China
- 2016
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Ingår i: American Journal of Human Biology. - : Wiley. - 1042-0533 .- 1520-6300. ; 28:2, s. 186-196
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: Earlier fieldwork in rural areas of Hainan Island, China, demonstrated that during the course of economic development increasing differences had emerged in lifestyles within communities. It is possible that these variations might have stratified residents into subpopulations with different health attributes. This study examined the association between C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration, a biomarker of future cardiovascular events, and personal lifestyle parameters and the degree of community-level economic development among rural communities. Methods: A cross-sectional field survey was undertaken in 19 rural communities in Hainan. Convenience sampling was used to recruit 1,744 participants. Dried blood spot samples were collected to measure high-sensitivity CRP concentration. Sex-stratified multilevel regression analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with CRP concentration among the participants. Results: While CRP concentration was negatively associated with being married and (more) education among men, for women CRP concentration was associated with the frequency of poultry consumption (P = 0.014) and the experience of migratory work in the previous year (P = 0.009). In addition, for females, living in communities with a greater degree of inequality, as indexed by the Gini coefficient, was also associated with increased CRP concentration (P = 0.003). Conclusion: Given that CRP concentration is a marker of future CVD risk, this study suggests that within these previously homogenous rural communities, economic development might have stratified people into population subgroups with a different CVD risk. Am. J. Hum. Biol., 2015.
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| 4. |
- Jeong, D. Y., et al.
(författare)
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Empirical assessment of biases in cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers of alzheimer’s disease : An umbrella review and re-analysis of data from meta-analyses
- 2021
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Ingår i: European Review for Medical and Pharmacological Sciences. - : Verduci Publisher. - 1128-3602. ; 25:3, s. 1536-1547
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a leading cause of years lived with disability in older age, and several cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) markers have been proposed in individual meta-analyses to be associated with AD but field-wide evaluation and scrutiny of the literature is not available. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed an umbrella review for the reported associations between CSF biomarkers and AD. Data from available meta-analyses were reanalyzed using both random and fixed effects models. We also estimated between-study heterogeneity, small-study effects, excess significance, and prediction interval. RESULTS: A total of 38 meta-analyses on CSF markers from 11 eligible articles were identified and reanalyzed. In 14 (36%) of the meta-analyses, the summary estimate and the results of the largest study showed non-concordant results in terms of statistical significance. Large heterogeneity (I2≥75%) was observed in 73% and small-study effects under Egger’s test were shown in 28% of CSF biomarkers. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that there is an excess of statistically significant results and significant biases in the literature of CSF biomarkers for AD. Therefore, the results of CSF biomarkers should be interpreted with caution.
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| 5. |
- Stefaniec, Agnieszka, et al.
(författare)
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Social sustainability of regional transportation : An assessment framework with application to EU road transport
- 2021
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Ingår i: Socio-Economic Planning Sciences. - : Elsevier. - 0038-0121 .- 1873-6041. ; 78
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The assessment of transportation social sustainability appeals to many scholars as an essential issue but imposes a risk of selecting inadequate factors and methods to measure social phenomena. In this study, based on an extensive review, we identify the measurable key social indicators (instead of the economic or environmental factors commonly used) and propose a comprehensive evaluation framework for relative performance analysis of social sustainability in the regional context. This work is the first attempt to assess regional social sustainability of transport explicitly utilizing a multi-output performance measure. We use Shannon entropy to combine the results of selected data envelopment analysis (DEA) models into a unified social sustainability performance score. The method is applied to regional road transport in the European Union (EU) member states for the period 2004–2017. The empirical section explores individual profiles of EU countries, compares the states grouped into two clusters of old (EU-15) and new (EU-13) EU members, and examines their social sustainability performance over time. The analysis suggests that considering only social factors in the measurement eliminates the bias resulting from the inclusion of economic factors. As a result, our method prevents inaccurate inflation of the scores of more economically advanced countries. The findings also draw attention to the car dependence problem associated with high motorization rates in affluent EU-15 states. The study confirms the capacity of the proposed DEA-based framework to serve as an adequate tool for measuring the social sustainability of transport, which can support policymakers by providing useful benchmarks employing social factors.
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