| 1. |
- Barber, R. M., et al.
(författare)
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Healthcare access and quality index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015 : A novel analysis from the global burden of disease study 2015
- 2017
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10091, s. 231-266
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. Methods We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r=0·88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r=0·83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r=0·77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. Findings Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28·6 to 94·6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40·7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39·0-42·8) in 1990 to 53·7 (52·2-55·4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21·2 in 1990 to 20·1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73·8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. Interpretation This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-system characteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world. Copyright © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 4. |
- Griswold, Max G., et al.
(författare)
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Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
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| 5. |
- Pittman, S. J., et al.
(författare)
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Seascape ecology : identifying research priorities for an emerging ocean sustainability science
- 2021
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Ingår i: Marine Ecology Progress Series. - : INTER-RESEARCH. - 0171-8630 .- 1616-1599. ; 663, s. 1-29
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Seascape ecology, the marine-centric counterpart to landscape ecology, is rapidly emerging as an interdisciplinary and spatially explicit ecological science with relevance to marine management, bio-diversity conservation, and restoration. While important progress in this field has been made in the past decade, there has been no coherent prioritisation of key research questions to help set the future research agenda for seascape ecology. We used a 2-stage modified Delphi method to solicit applied research questions from academic experts in seascape ecology and then asked respondents to identify priority questions across 9 interrelated research themes using 2 rounds of selection. We also invited senior management/conservation practitioners to prioritise the same research questions. Analyses highlighted congruence and discrepancies in perceived priorities for applied research. Themes related to both ecological concepts and management practice, and those identified as priorities include seascape change, seascape connectivity, spatial and temporal scale, ecosystem-based management, and emerging technologies and metrics. Highest-priority questions (upper tercile) received 50% agreement between respondent groups, and lowest priorities (lower tercile) received 58% agreement. Across all 3 priority tiers, 36 of the 55 questions were within a +/- 10% band of agreement. We present the most important applied research questions as determined by the proportion of votes received. For each theme, we provide a synthesis of the research challenges and the potential role of seascape ecology. These priority questions and themes serve as a roadmap for advancing applied seascape ecology during, and beyond, the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021-2030).
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| 6. |
- Krause-Jensen, D, et al.
(författare)
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Nordic Blue Carbon Ecosystems: Status and Outlook
- 2022
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Marine Science. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-7745. ; 9
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Vegetated coastal and marine habitats in the Nordic region include salt marshes, eelgrass meadows and, in particular, brown macroalgae (kelp forests and rockweed beds). Such habitats contribute to storage of organic carbon (Blue Carbon – BC) and support coastal protection, biodiversity and water quality. Protection and restoration of these habitats therefore have the potential to deliver climate change mitigation and co-benefits. Here we present the existing knowledge on Nordic BC habitats in terms of habitat area, C-stocks and sequestration rates, co-benefits, policies and management status to inspire a coherent Nordic BC roadmap. The area extent of BC habitats in the region is incompletely assessed, but available information sums up to 1,440 km2 salt marshes, 1,861 (potentially 2,735) km2 seagrass meadows, and 16,532 km2 (potentially 130,735 km2, including coarse Greenland estimates) brown macroalgae, yielding a total of 19,833 (potentially 134,910) km2. Saltmarshes and seagrass meadows have experienced major declines over the past century, while macroalgal trends are more diverse. Based on limited salt marsh data, sediment C-stocks average 3,311 g Corg m-2 (top 40-100 cm) and sequestration rates average 142 g Corg m-2 yr-1. Eelgrass C-stocks average 2,414 g Corg m-2 (top 25 cm) and initial data for sequestration rates range 5-33 g Corg m-2, quantified for one Greenland site and one short term restoration. For Nordic brown macroalgae, peer-reviewed estimates of sediment C-stock and sequestration are lacking. Overall, the review reveals substantial Nordic BC-stocks, but highlights that evidence is still insufficient to provide a robust estimate of all Nordic BC-stocks and sequestration rates. Needed are better quantification of habitat area, C-stocks and fluxes, particularly for macroalgae, as well as identification of target areas for BC management. The review also points to directives and regulations protecting Nordic marine vegetation, and local restoration initiatives with potential to increase C-sequestration but underlines that increased coordination at national and Nordic scales and across sectors is needed. We propose a Nordic BC roadmap for science and management to maximize the potential of BC habitats to mitigate climate change and support coastal protection, biodiversity and additional ecosystem functions.
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| 7. |
- Rich, Rebecca L., et al.
(författare)
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A global benchmark study using affinity-based biosensors
- 2009
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Ingår i: Analytical Biochemistry. - : Elsevier BV. - 0003-2697 .- 1096-0309. ; 386:2, s. 194-216
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To explore the variability in biosensor studies, 150 participants from 20 countries were given the same protein samples and asked to determine kinetic rate constants for the interaction. We chose a protein system that was amenable to analysis using different biosensor platforms as well as by users of different expertise levels. The two proteins (a 50-kDa Fab and a 60-kDa glutathione S-transferase [GST] antigen) form a relatively high-affinity complex, so participants needed to optimize several experimental parameters, including ligand immobilization and regeneration conditions as well as analyte concentrations and injection/dissociation times. Although most participants collected binding responses that could be fit to yield kinetic parameters, the quality of a few data sets could have been improved by optimizing the assay design. Once these outliers were removed, the average reported affinity across the remaining panel of participants was 620 pM with a standard deviation of 980 pM. These results demonstrate that when this biosensor assay was designed and executed appropriately, the reported rate constants were consistent, and independent of which protein was immobilized and which biosensor was used.
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| 8. |
- Dahl, Martin, 1984-, et al.
(författare)
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First assessment of seagrass carbon accumulation rates in Sweden: A field study from a fjord system at the Skagerrak coast
- 2023
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Ingår i: PLoS Climate. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 2767-3200. ; 2:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Seagrass meadows are globally important blue carbon sinks. In northern cold-temperate regions, eelgrass (Zostera marina) is the dominant seagrass species, and although their sedimentary carbon stocks have been quantified across regions, information regarding the CO2 withdrawal capacity as carbon sinks remains scarce. Here we assessed the carbon (Corg) accumulation rates (CARs) and stocks as well as the organic matter sources in five seagrass meadows in the Gullmar Fjord area on the Swedish Skagerrak coast. We found that the mean (±SD) CAR was 14 ± 3 g Corg m-2 yr-1 over the last ~120–140 years (corresponding to a yearly uptake of 52.4 ± 12.6 g CO2 m-2). The carbon sink capacity is in line with other Z. marina areas but relatively low compared to other seagrass species and regions globally. About half of the sedimentary carbon accumulation (7.1 ± 3.3 g Corg m-2 yr-1) originated from macroalgae biomass, which highlights the importance of non-seagrass derived material for the carbon sink function of seagrass meadows in the area. The Corg stocks were similar among sites when comparing at a standardized depth of 50 cm (4.6–5.9 kg Corg m-2), but showed large variation when assessed for the total extent of the cores (ranging from 0.7 to 20.6 kg Corg m-2 for sediment depths of 11 to at least 149 cm). The low sediment accretion rates (1.18–1.86 mm yr-1) and the relatively thick sediment deposits (with a maximum of >150 cm of sediment depth) suggests that the carbon stocks have likely been accumulated for an extended period of time, and that the documented loss of seagrass meadows in the Swedish Skagerrak region and associated erosion of the sediment could potentially have offset centuries of carbon sequestration.
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| 9. |
- Dahl, Martin, 1984-, et al.
(författare)
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Impacts of land-use change and urban development on carbon sequestration in tropical seagrass meadow sediments
- 2022
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Ingår i: Marine Environmental Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 0141-1136 .- 1879-0291. ; 176
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Seagrass meadows store significant carbon stocks at a global scale, but land-use change and other anthropogenic activities can alter the natural process of organic carbon (Corg) accumulation. Here, we assessed the carbon accumulation history of two seagrass meadows in Zanzibar (Tanzania) that have experienced different degrees of disturbance. The meadow at Stone Town has been highly exposed to urban development during the 20th century, while the Mbweni meadow is located in an area with relatively low impacts but historical clearing of adjacent mangroves. The results showed that the two sites had similar sedimentary Corg accumulation rates (22–25 g m−2 yr−1) since the 1940s, while during the last two decades (∼1998 until 2018) they exhibited 24–30% higher accumulation of Corg, which was linked to shifts in Corg sources. The increase in the δ13C isotopic signature of sedimentary Corg (towards a higher seagrass contribution) at the Stone Town site since 1998 points to improved seagrass meadow conditions and Corg accumulation capacity of the meadow after the relocation of a major sewage outlet in the mid–1990s. In contrast, the decrease in the δ13C signatures of sedimentary Corg in the Mbweni meadow since the early 2010s was likely linked to increased Corg run-off of mangrove/terrestrial material following mangrove deforestation. This study exemplifies two different pathways by which land-based human activities can alter the carbon storage capacity of seagrass meadows (i.e. sewage waste management and mangrove deforestation) and showcases opportunities for management of vegetated coastal Corg sinks.
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| 10. |
- Ismail, Rashid O., 1986-, et al.
(författare)
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Effects of calcification on air-water CO2 fluxes in tropical seagrass meadows : A mesocosm experiment
- 2023
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Ingår i: Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-0981 .- 1879-1697. ; 561
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Seagrass meadows deliver a range of ecosystem services, where one of the more important is the capacity to store carbon and serve as sinks for atmospheric carbon dioxide. The capacity of seagrass meadows for carbon storage might, however, be modified and complicated by several factors; one important factor is the possible effects of calcification within the meadows. In tropical areas, seagrass meadows can contain high proportions of calcareous organisms, which through their calcification may cause release of CO2. To study this aspect of the CO2 balance within tropical seagrass systems, we investigated the air-water CO2 flux in seagrass mesocosms with different plant community compositions, i.e. mixtures of seagrass and calcifying macroalgae, having similar overall photosynthetic oxygen evolution rates. The measured CO2 fluxes changed both in rate and direction over the day and were significantly related to plant community composition. Downward fluxes of CO2 were found only over vegetation with high proportion of seagrass and in the afternoon, whereas occurrence of calcifying algae appeared to reverse the flow. A partial least squares (PLS) regression model indicated that pH, pCO2 and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) were the primary environmental variables predicting the CO2 fluxes. Our findings show that algal calcification might partly counteract the carbon sequestration in seagrass meadows.
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