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- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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- Geach, J.E., et al.
(författare)
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The SCUBA-2 Cosmology Legacy Survey: 850 μm maps, catalogues and number counts
- 2017
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Ingår i: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 465:2, s. 1789-1806
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a catalogue of similar to 3000 submillimetre sources detected (>= 3.5 sigma) at 850 mu m over similar to 5 deg(2) surveyed as part of the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope (JCMT) SCUBA-2 Cosmology Legacy Survey (S2CLS). This is the largest survey of its kind at 850 mu m, increasing the sample size of 850 mu m selected submillimetre galaxies by an order of magnitude. The wide 850 mu m survey component of S2CLS covers the extragalactic fields: UKIDSS-UDS, COSMOS, Akari-NEP, Extended Groth Strip, Lockman Hole North, SSA22 and GOODS-North. The average 1s depth of S2CLS is 1.2 mJy beam(-1), approaching the SCUBA-2 850 mu m confusion limit, which we determine to be sigma(c) approximate to 0.8 mJy beam(-1). We measure the 850 mu m number counts, reducing the Poisson errors on the differential counts to approximately 4 per cent at S-850 approximate to 3 mJy. With several independent fields, we investigate field-to-field variance, finding that the number counts on 0.5 degrees-1 degrees scales are generally within 50 per cent of the S2CLS mean for S-850 > 3 mJy, with scatter consistent with the Poisson and estimated cosmic variance uncertainties, although there is a marginal (2 sigma) density enhancement in GOODS-North. The observed counts are in reasonable agreement with recent phenomenological and semi-analytic models, although determining the shape of the faint-end slope (S-850 < 3 mJy) remains a key test. The large solid angle of S2CLS allows us to measure the bright-end counts: at S-850 > 10 mJy there are approximately 10 sources per square degree, and we detect the distinctive up-turn in the number counts indicative of the detection of local sources of 850 mu m emission
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- Yagoubov, P., et al.
(författare)
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Wideband 67-116 GHz receiver development for ALMA Band 2
- 2020
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 634
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context. The Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) has been in operation since 2011, but it has not yet been populated with the full suite of its planned frequency bands. In particular, ALMA Band 2 (67-90 GHz) is the final band in the original ALMA band definition to be approved for production. Aims. We aim to produce a wideband, tuneable, sideband-separating receiver with 28 GHz of instantaneous bandwidth per polarisation operating in the sky frequency range of 67-116 GHz. Our design anticipates new ALMA requirements following the recommendations of the 2030 ALMA Development Roadmap. Methods. The cryogenic cartridge is designed to be compatible with the ALMA Band 2 cartridge slot, where the coldest components - the feedhorns, orthomode transducers, and cryogenic low noise amplifiers - operate at a temperature of 15 K. We use multiple simulation methods and tools to optimise our designs for both the passive optics and the active components. The cryogenic cartridge is interfaced with a room-temperature (warm) cartridge hosting the local oscillator and the downconverter module. This warm cartridge is largely based on GaAs semiconductor technology and is optimised to match the cryogenic receiver bandwidth with the required instantaneous local oscillator frequency tuning range. Results. Our collaboration has resulted in the design, fabrication, and testing of multiple technical solutions for each of the receiver components, producing a state-of-the-art receiver covering the full ALMA Band 2 and 3 atmospheric window. The receiver is suitable for deployment on ALMA in the coming years and it is capable of dual-polarisation, sideband-separating observations in intermediate frequency bands spanning 4-18 GHz for a total of 28 GHz on-sky bandwidth per polarisation channel. Conclusions. We conclude that the 67-116 GHz wideband implementation for ALMA Band 2 is now feasible and that this receiver provides a compelling instrumental upgrade for ALMA that will enhance observational capabilities and scientific reach.
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