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  • Hudson, Lawrence N., et al. (författare)
  • The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Ecology and Evolution. - : Wiley. - 2045-7758 .- 2045-7758. ; 7:1, s. 145-188
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.
  • 2017
  • swepub:Mat__t
  • Forouzanfar, Mohammad H., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1659-1724
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57.8% (95% CI 56.6-58.8) of global deaths and 41.2% (39.8-42.8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211.8 million [192.7 million to 231.1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148.6 million [134.2 million to 163.1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143.1 million [125.1 million to 163.5 million]), high BMI (120.1 million [83.8 million to 158.4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113.3 million [103.9 million to 123.4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103.1 million [90.8 million to 115.1 million]), high total cholesterol (88.7 million [74.6 million to 105.7 million]), household air pollution (85.6 million [66.7 million to 106.1 million]), alcohol use (85.0 million [77.2 million to 93.0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83.0 million [49.3 million to 127.5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
  • Locke, Adam E, et al. (författare)
  • Genetic studies of body mass index yield new insights for obesity biology.
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Nature. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 518:7538, s. 197-401
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Obesity is heritable and predisposes to many diseases. To understand the genetic basis of obesity better, here we conduct a genome-wide association study and Metabochip meta-analysis of body mass index (BMI), a measure commonly used to define obesity and assess adiposity, in up to 339,224 individuals. This analysis identifies 97 BMI-associated loci (P < 5 × 10(-8)), 56 of which are novel. Five loci demonstrate clear evidence of several independent association signals, and many loci have significant effects on other metabolic phenotypes. The 97 loci account for ∼2.7% of BMI variation, and genome-wide estimates suggest that common variation accounts for >20% of BMI variation. Pathway analyses provide strong support for a role of the central nervous system in obesity susceptibility and implicate new genes and pathways, including those related to synaptic function, glutamate signalling, insulin secretion/action, energy metabolism, lipid biology and adipogenesis.
  • Abramowski, A., et al. (författare)
  • A multiwavelength view of the flaring state of PKS 2155-304 in 2006
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 539, s. A149-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Context. Multiwavelength (MWL) observations of the blazar PKS 2155-304 during two weeks in July and August 2006, the period when two exceptional flares at very high energies (VHE, E greater than or similar to 100 GeV) occurred, provide a detailed picture of the evolution of its emission. The complete data set from this campaign is presented, including observations in VHE gamma-rays (H.E.S. S.), X-rays (RXTE, Chandra, Swift XRT), optical (Swift UVOT, Bronberg, Watcher, ROTSE), and in the radio band (NRT, HartRAO, ATCA). Optical and radio light curves from 2004 to 2008 are compared to the available VHE data from this period, to put the 2006 campaign into the context of the long-term evolution of the source. Aims. The data set offers a close view of the evolution of the source on different time scales and yields new insights into the properties of the emission process. The predictions of synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) scenarios are compared to the MWL data, with the aim of describing the dominant features in the data down to the hour time scale. Methods. The spectral variability in the X-ray and VHE bands is explored and correlations between the integral fluxes at different wavelengths are evaluated. SSC modelling is used to interpret the general trends of the varying spectral energy distribution. Results. The X-ray and VHE gamma-ray emission are correlated during the observed high state of the source, but show no direct connection with longer wavelengths. The long-term flux evolution in the optical and radio bands is found to be correlated and shows that the source reaches a high state at long wavelengths after the occurrence of the VHE flares. Spectral hardening is seen in the Swift XRT data. Conclusions. The nightly averaged high-energy spectra of the non-flaring nights can be reproduced by a stationary one-zone SSC model, with only small variations in the parameters. The spectral and flux evolution in the high-energy band during the night of the second VHE flare is modelled with multi-zone SSC models, which can provide relatively simple interpretations for the hour time-scale evolution of the high-energy emission, even for such a complex data set. For the first time in this type of source, a clear indication is found for a relation between high activity at high energies and a long-term increase in the low frequency fluxes.
  • Abramowski, A., et al. (författare)
  • A new SNR with TeV shell-type morphology : HESS J1731-347
  • 2011
  • Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 531, s. A81-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Aims. The recent discovery of the radio shell-type supernova remnant (SNR), G353.6-0.7, in spatial coincidence with the unidentified TeV source HESS J1731-347 has motivated further observations of the source with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (HESS) Cherenkov telescope array to test a possible association of the gamma-ray emission with the SNR. Methods. With a total of 59 h of observation, representing about four times the initial exposure available in the discovery paper of HESS J1731-347, the gamma-ray morphology is investigated and compared with the radio morphology. An estimate of the distance is derived by comparing the interstellar absorption derived from X-rays and the one obtained from (12)CO and HI observations. Results. The deeper gamma-ray observation of the source has revealed a large shell-type structure with similar position and extension (r similar to 0.25 degrees) as the radio SNR, thus confirming their association. By accounting for the HESS angular resolution and projection effects within a simple shell model, the radial profile is compatible with a thin, spatially unresolved, rim. Together with RX J1713.7-3946, RX J0852.0-4622 and SN 1006, HESS J1731-347 is now the fourth SNR with a significant shell morphology at TeV energies. The derived lower limit on the distance of the SNR of 3.2 kpc is used together with radio and X-ray data to discuss the possible origin of the gamma-ray emission, either via inverse Compton scattering of electrons or the decay of neutral pions resulting from proton-proton interaction.
  • Abramowski, A., et al. (författare)
  • Detection of very-high-energy gamma-ray emission from the vicinity of PSR B1706-44 and G 343.1-2.3 with HESS
  • 2011
  • Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 528, s. A143-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The gamma-ray pulsar PSR B1706-44 and the adjacent supernova remnant (SNR) candidate G 343.1-2.3 were observed by H. E. S. S. during a dedicated observation campaign in 2007. As a result of this observation campaign, a new source of very-high-energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray emission, H.E.S.S. J1708-443, was detected with a statistical significance of 7 sigma, although no significant point-like emission was detected at the position of the energetic pulsar itself. In this paper, the morphological and spectral analyses of the newly-discovered TeV source are presented. The centroid of H. E. S. S. J1708-443 is considerably offset from the pulsar and located near the apparent center of the SNR, at alpha(J2000) = 17(h)08(m)11(s) +/- 17(s) and delta(J2000) = -44 degrees 20' +/- 4'. The source is found to be significantly more extended than the H. E. S. S. point spread function (similar to 0.1 degrees), with an intrinsic Gaussian width of 0.29 degrees +/- 0.04 degrees. Its integral flux between 1 and 10 TeV is similar to 3.8 x 10(-1)2 ph cm(-2) s(-1), equivalent to 17% of the Crab Nebula flux in the same energy range. The measured energy spectrum is well-fit by a power law with a relatively hard photon index Gamma = 2.0 +/- 0.1(stat) +/-0.2(sys). Additional multi-wavelength data, including 330 MHz VLA observations, were used to investigate the VHE gamma-ray source's possible associations with the pulsar wind nebula of PSR B1706-44 and/or with the complex radio structure of the partial shell-type SNR G 343.1-2.3.
  • Abramowski, A., et al. (författare)
  • HESS constraints on dark matter annihilations towards the sculptor and carina dwarf galaxies
  • 2011
  • Ingår i: Astroparticle physics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0927-6505 .- 1873-2852. ; 34:8, s. 608-616
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The Sculptor and Carina dwarf spheroidal galaxies were observed with the H.E.S.S. Cherenkov telescope array between January 2008 and December 2009. The data sets consist of a total of 11.8 h and 14.811 of high quality data, respectively. No gamma-ray signal was detected at the nominal positions of these galaxies above 220 GeV and 320 GeV, respectively. Upper limits on the gamma-ray fluxes at 95% CL assuming two forms for the spectral energy distribution (a power law shape and one derived from dark matter annihilation) are obtained at the level of 10(-13)-10(-12) cm(-2) s(-1) in the TeV range. Constraints on the velocity weighted dark matter particle annihilation cross section for both Sculptor and Carina dwarf galaxies range from 10(-21) cm(3) s(-1) down to similar to 10(-2)2 cm(3) s(-1) on the dark matter halo model used. Possible enhancements of the gamma-ray flux are studied: the Sommerfeld effect, which is found to exclude some dark matter particle masses, the internal Bremsstrahlung and clumps in the dark-matter halo distributions. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
  • Abramowski, A., et al. (författare)
  • HESS J1943+213 : a candidate extreme BL Lacertae object
  • 2011
  • Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 529, s. A49-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Context. The H. E. S. S. Cherenkov telescope array has been surveying the Galactic plane for new VHE (>100 GeV) gamma-ray sources. Aims. We report on a newly detected point-like source, HESS J1943+213. This source coincides with an unidentified hard X-ray source IGR J19443+2117, which was proposed to have radio and infrared counterparts. Methods. We combine new H. E. S. S., Fermi/LAT and Nancay Radio Telescope observations with pre-existing non-simultaneous multi-wavelength observations of IGR J19443+2117 and discuss the likely source associations as well as the interpretation as an active galactic nucleus, a gamma-ray binary or a pulsar wind nebula. Results. HESS J1943+213 is detected at the significance level of 7.9 sigma (post-trials) at RA(J2000) = 19(h)43(m)55(s) +/- 1(stat)(s) +/- 1(sys)(s), Dec(J2000) = +21 degrees 18'8 '' +/- 17(stat)'' +/- 20(sys)''. The source has a soft spectrum with photon index Gamma = 3.1 +/- 0.3(stat) +/- 0.2(sys) and a flux above 470 GeV of (1.3 +/- 0.2(stat) +/- 0.3(sys)) x 10(-12) cm(-2) s(-1). There is no Fermi/LAT counterpart down to a flux limit of 6 x 10(-9) cm(-2) s(-1) in the 0.1-100 GeV energy range (95% confidence upper limit calculated for an assumed power-law model with a photon index Gamma = 2.0). The data from radio to VHE gamma-rays do not show any significant variability. Conclusions. The lack of a massive stellar counterpart disfavors the binary hypothesis, while the soft VHE spectrum would be very unusual in case of a pulsar wind nebula. In addition, the distance estimates for Galactic counterparts places them outside of the Milky Way. All available observations favor an interpretation as an extreme, high-frequency peaked BL Lac object with a redshift z > 0.14. This would be the first time a blazar is detected serendipitously from ground-based VHE observations, and the first VHE AGN detected in the Galactic Plane.
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