| 1. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(author)
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STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017
- 2018
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In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 99:8, s. S1-S310
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Research review (peer-reviewed)
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| 2. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(author)
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State of the Climate in 2016
- 2017
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In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 98:8, s. S1-S280
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 +/- 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 +/- 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Nino events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Nina evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Nino conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth's surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44 degrees C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0 degrees C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8 degrees C, representing a 3.5 degrees C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin, making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute similar to 7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the 37-year satellite record. Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01 degrees C. The global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st century-to-date of +0.162 degrees C decade(-1) is much higher than the longer term 1950-2016 trend of +0.100 degrees C decade(-1). Global annual mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015. Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island. In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high surface pressure records for August and November were set at several stations. During this period, record low daily and monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast sharply with the record high values observed during 2012-14. Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was less severe relative to the 1991-2006 average, but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels. Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981-2010 average of 82, but fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins-the North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific-experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin recorded its least active season since the beginning of the satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached the Saffir-Simpson category 5 intensity level. The strong El Nino at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Nina contributed to enhanced precipitation variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed throughout the year across southern South America, causing repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of 2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse, the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil, drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive year, making this the longest drought on record in the region. Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru; it was Bolivia's worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S. dollars) in insured losses.
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| 3. |
- Ades, M., et al.
(author)
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Global Climate : in State of the climate in 2019
- 2020
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In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 101:8, s. S17-S127
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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| 4. |
- Ades, M., et al.
(author)
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GLOBAL CLIMATE
- 2020
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In: BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 101:8, s. S17-S127
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Yuh, Esther L, et al.
(author)
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Pathological computed tomography features associated with adverse outcomes after mild traumatic brain injury : A TRACK-TBI study with external validation in CENTER-TBI.
- 2021
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In: JAMA Neurology. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2168-6149 .- 2168-6157. ; 78:9, s. 1137-1148
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- IMPORTANCE: A head computed tomography (CT) with positive results for acute intracranial hemorrhage is the gold-standard diagnostic biomarker for acute traumatic brain injury (TBI). In moderate to severe TBI (Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] scores 3-12), some CT features have been shown to be associated with outcomes. In mild TBI (mTBI; GCS scores 13-15), distribution and co-occurrence of pathological CT features and their prognostic importance are not well understood.OBJECTIVE: To identify pathological CT features associated with adverse outcomes after mTBI.DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The longitudinal, observational Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in Traumatic Brain Injury (TRACK-TBI) study enrolled patients with TBI, including those 17 years and older with GCS scores of 13 to 15 who presented to emergency departments at 18 US level 1 trauma centers between February 26, 2014, and August 8, 2018, and underwent head CT imaging within 24 hours of TBI. Evaluations of CT imaging used TBI Common Data Elements. Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOSE) scores were assessed at 2 weeks and 3, 6, and 12 months postinjury. External validation of results was performed via the Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury (CENTER-TBI) study. Data analyses were completed from February 2020 to February 2021.EXPOSURES: Acute nonpenetrating head trauma.MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Frequency, co-occurrence, and clustering of CT features; incomplete recovery (GOSE scores <8 vs 8); and an unfavorable outcome (GOSE scores <5 vs ≥5) at 2 weeks and 3, 6, and 12 months.RESULTS: In 1935 patients with mTBI (mean [SD] age, 41.5 [17.6] years; 1286 men [66.5%]) in the TRACK-TBI cohort and 2594 patients with mTBI (mean [SD] age, 51.8 [20.3] years; 1658 men [63.9%]) in an external validation cohort, hierarchical cluster analysis identified 3 major clusters of CT features: contusion, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and/or subdural hematoma; intraventricular and/or petechial hemorrhage; and epidural hematoma. Contusion, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and/or subdural hematoma features were associated with incomplete recovery (odds ratios [ORs] for GOSE scores <8 at 1 year: TRACK-TBI, 1.80 [95% CI, 1.39-2.33]; CENTER-TBI, 2.73 [95% CI, 2.18-3.41]) and greater degrees of unfavorable outcomes (ORs for GOSE scores <5 at 1 year: TRACK-TBI, 3.23 [95% CI, 1.59-6.58]; CENTER-TBI, 1.68 [95% CI, 1.13-2.49]) out to 12 months after injury, but epidural hematoma was not. Intraventricular and/or petechial hemorrhage was associated with greater degrees of unfavorable outcomes up to 12 months after injury (eg, OR for GOSE scores <5 at 1 year in TRACK-TBI: 3.47 [95% CI, 1.66-7.26]). Some CT features were more strongly associated with outcomes than previously validated variables (eg, ORs for GOSE scores <5 at 1 year in TRACK-TBI: neuropsychiatric history, 1.43 [95% CI .98-2.10] vs contusion, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and/or subdural hematoma, 3.23 [95% CI 1.59-6.58]). Findings were externally validated in 2594 patients with mTBI enrolled in the CENTER-TBI study.CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this study, pathological CT features carried different prognostic implications after mTBI to 1 year postinjury. Some patterns of injury were associated with worse outcomes than others. These results support that patients with mTBI and these CT features need TBI-specific education and systematic follow-up.
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| 7. |
- Centurioni, Luca R., et al.
(author)
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Global in situ Observations of Essential Climate and Ocean Variables at the Air-Sea Interface
- 2019
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In: Frontiers in Marine Science. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-7745. ; 6
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The air-sea interface is a key gateway in the Earth system. It is where the atmosphere sets the ocean in motion, climate/weather-relevant air-sea processes occur, and pollutants (i.e., plastic, anthropogenic carbon dioxide, radioactive/chemical waste) enter the sea. Hence, accurate estimates and forecasts of physical and biogeochemical processes at this interface are critical for sustainable blue economy planning, growth, and disaster mitigation. Such estimates and forecasts rely on accurate and integrated in situ and satellite surface observations. High-impact uses of ocean surface observations of essential ocean/climate variables (EOVs/ECVs) include (1) assimilation into/validation of weather, ocean, and climate forecast models to improve their skill, impact, and value; (2) ocean physics studies (i.e., heat, momentum, freshwater, and biogeochemical air-sea fluxes) to further our understanding and parameterization of air-sea processes; and (3) calibration and validation of satellite ocean products (i.e., currents, temperature, salinity, sea level, ocean color, wind, and waves). We review strengths and limitations, impacts, and sustainability of in situ ocean surface observations of several ECVs and EOVs. We draw a 10-year vision of the global ocean surface observing network for improved synergy and integration with other observing systems (e.g., satellites), for modeling/forecast efforts, and for a better ocean observing governance. The context is both the applications listed above and the guidelines of frameworks such as the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) and Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) (both co-sponsoredby the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO, IOC-UNESCO; the World Meteorological Organization, WMO; the United Nations Environment Programme, UNEP; and the International Science Council, ISC). Networks of multiparametric platforms, such as the global drifter array, offer opportunities for new and improved in situ observations. Advances in sensor technology (e.g., low-cost wave sensors), high-throughput communications, evolving cyberinfrastructures, and data information systems with potential to improve the scope, efficiency, integration, and sustainability of the ocean surface observing system are explored.
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| 8. |
- Woolway, R. Iestyn, et al.
(author)
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Geographic and temporal variations in turbulent heat loss from lakes : A global analysis across 45 lakes
- 2018
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In: Limnology and Oceanography. - : WILEY. - 0024-3590 .- 1939-5590. ; 63:6, s. 2436-2449
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Heat fluxes at the lake surface play an integral part in determining the energy budget and thermal structure in lakes, including regulating how lakes respond to climate change. We explore patterns in turbulent heat fluxes, which vary across temporal and spatial scales, using in situ high-frequency monitoring data from 45 globally distributed lakes. Our analysis demonstrates that some of the lakes studied follow a marked seasonal cycle in their turbulent surface fluxes and that turbulent heat loss is highest in larger lakes and those situated at low latitude. The Bowen ratio, which is the ratio of mean sensible to mean latent heat fluxes, is smaller at low latitudes and, in turn, the relative contribution of evaporative to total turbulent heat loss increases toward the tropics. Latent heat transfer ranged from similar to 60% to > 90% of total turbulent heat loss in the examined lakes. The Bowen ratio ranged from 0.04 to 0.69 and correlated significantly with latitude. The relative contributions to total turbulent heat loss therefore differ among lakes, and these contributions are influenced greatly by lake location. Our findings have implications for understanding the role of lakes in the climate system, effects on the lake water balance, and temperature-dependent processes in lakes.
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| 9. |
- Woolway, R. Iestyn, et al.
(author)
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Latitude and lake size are important predictors of over-lake atmospheric stability
- 2017
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In: Geophysical Research Letters. - : AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION. - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 44:17, s. 8875-8883
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Turbulent fluxes across the air-water interface are integral to determining lake heat budgets, evaporation, and carbon emissions from lakes. The stability of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) influences the exchange of turbulent energy. We explore the differences in over-lake ABL stability using data from 39 globally distributed lakes. The frequency of unstable ABL conditions varied between lakes from 71 to 100% of the time, with average air temperatures typically several degrees below the average lake surface temperature. This difference increased with decreasing latitude, resulting in a more frequently unstable ABL and a more efficient energy transfer to and from the atmosphere, toward the tropics. In addition, during summer the frequency of unstable ABL conditions decreased with increasing lake surface area. The dependency of ABL stability on latitude and lake size has implications for heat loss and carbon fluxes from lakes, the hydrologic cycle, and climate change effects.
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| 10. |
- Woolway, R. Iestyn, et al.
(author)
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Substantial increase in minimum lake surface temperatures under climate change
- 2019
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In: Climatic Change. - : Springer. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 155:1, s. 81-94
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The annual minimum of lake surface water temperature influences ecological and biogeochemical processes, but variability and change in this extreme have not been investigated. Here, we analysed observational data from eight European lakes and investigated the changes in annual minimum surface water temperature. We found that between 1973 and 2014, the annual minimum lake surface temperature has increased at an average rate of + 0.35 degrees Cdecade(-1), comparable to the rate of summer average lake surface temperature change during the same period (+ 0.32 degrees C decade(-1)). Coherent responses to climatic warming are observed between the increase in annual minimum lake surface temperature and the increase in winter air temperature variations. As a result of the rapid warming of annual minimum lake surface temperatures, some of the studied lakes no longer reach important minimum surface temperature thresholds that occur in winter, with complex and significant potential implications for lakes and the ecosystem services that they provide.
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