| 1. |
- Niemi, MEK, et al.
(författare)
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- 2021
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swepub:Mat__t
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Blagrove, Marcus S. C., et al.
(författare)
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Potential for Zika virus transmission by mosquitoes in temperate climates
- 2020
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences. - : The Royal Society. - 0962-8452 .- 1471-2954. ; 287:1930
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Mosquito-borne Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission has almost exclusively been detected in the tropics despite the distributions of its primary vectors extending farther into temperate regions. Therefore, it is unknown whether ZIKV's range has reached a temperature-dependent limit, or if it can spread into temperate climates. Using field-collected mosquitoes for biological relevance, we found that two common temperate mosquito species,Aedes albopictusandOchlerotatus detritus, were competent for ZIKV. We orally exposed mosquitoes to ZIKV and held them at between 17 and 31 degrees C, estimated the time required for mosquitoes to become infectious, and applied these data to a ZIKV spatial risk model. We identified a minimum temperature threshold for the transmission of ZIKV by mosquitoes between 17 and 19 degrees C. Using these data, we generated standardized basic reproduction numberR(0)-based risk maps and we derived estimates for the length of the transmission season for recent and future climate conditions. Our standardizedR(0)-based risk maps show potential risk of ZIKV transmission beyond the current observed range in southern USA, southern China and southern European countries. Transmission risk is simulated to increase over southern and Eastern Europe, northern USA and temperate regions of Asia (northern China, southern Japan) in future climate scenarios.
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| 4. |
- Caminade, Cyril, et al.
(författare)
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Global risk model for vector-borne transmission of Zika virus reveals the role of El Nino 2015
- 2017
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 114:1, s. 119-124
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Zika, a mosquito-borne viral disease that emerged in South America in 2015, was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the WHO in February of 2016. We developed a climate-driven R-0 mathematical model for the transmission risk of Zika virus (ZIKV) that explicitly includes two keymosquito vector species: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. The model was parameterized and calibrated using the most up to date information from the available literature. It was then driven by observed gridded temperature and rainfall datasets for the period 1950-2015. We find that the transmission risk in South America in 2015 was the highest since 1950. This maximum is related to favoring temperature conditions that caused the simulated biting rates to be largest and mosquito mortality rates and extrinsic incubation periods to be smallest in 2015. This event followed the suspected introduction of ZIKV in Brazil in 2013. The ZIKV outbreak in Latin America has very likely been fueled by the 2015-2016 El Nino climate phenomenon affecting the region. The highest transmission risk globally is in South America and tropical countries where Ae. aegypti is abundant. Transmission risk is strongly seasonal in temperate regions where Ae. albopictus is present, with significant risk of ZIKV transmission in the southeastern states of the United States, in southern China, and to a lesser extent, over southern Europe during the boreal summer season.
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| 5. |
- Parratt, Steven R., et al.
(författare)
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Temperatures that sterilize males better match global species distributions than lethal temperatures
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 11:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Attempts to link physiological thermal tolerance to global species distributions have relied on lethal temperature limits, yet many organisms lose fertility at sublethal temperatures. Here we show that, across 43 Drosophila species, global distributions better match male-sterilizing temperatures than lethal temperatures. This suggests that species distributions may be determined by thermal limits to reproduction, not survival, meaning we may be underestimating the impacts of climate change for many organisms.
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