| 1. |
- Jansson, Roland, et al.
(författare)
-
Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems : prospects for the European north
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Ecology and Society. - : Resilience Alliance. - 1708-3087. ; 20:3
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Humans depend on services provided by ecosystems, and how services are affected by climate change is increasingly studied. Few studies, however, address changes likely to affect services from seminatural ecosystems. We analyzed ecosystem goods and services in natural and seminatural systems, specifically how they are expected to change as a result of projected climate change during the 21st century. We selected terrestrial and freshwater systems in northernmost Europe, where climate is anticipated to change more than the global average, and identified likely changes in ecosystem services and their societal consequences. We did this by assembling experts from ecology, social science, and cultural geography in workshops, and we also performed a literature review. Results show that most ecosystem services are affected by multiple factors, often acting in opposite directions. Out of 14 services considered, 8 are expected to increase or remain relatively unchanged in supply, and 6 are expected to decrease. Although we do not predict collapse or disappearance of any of the investigated services, the effects of climate change in conjunction with potential economical and societal changes may exceed the adaptive capacity of societies. This may result in societal reorganization and changes in ways that ecosystems are used. Significant uncertainties and knowledge gaps in the forecast make specific conclusions about societal responses to safeguard human well-being questionable. Adapting to changes in ecosystem services will therefore require consideration of uncertainties and complexities in both social and ecological responses. The scenarios presented here provide a framework for future studies exploring such issues.
|
|
| 2. |
- Moen, Jon, 1960-, et al.
(författare)
-
Interlocking panarchies in multi-use boreal forests in Sweden
- 2010
-
Ingår i: Ecology and Society. - : Resilience Alliance Publications. - 1708-3087. ; 15:3
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper uses northern Sweden as a case study of a multi-use social-ecological system, in which forestry and reindeer husbandry interact as different land use forms in the same area. We aim to describe the timeline of main events that have influenced resource use in northern Sweden, that is, to attempt a historical profiling of the system, and to discuss these trends in the system in terms of adaptive cycles and resilience. The study shows that key political decisions have created strong path dependencies and a situation in which forestry today is characterized by low flexibility and low resilience due to the highly optimized harvesting of tree resources. Since forestry is the overwhelmingly strongest actor, trends in forestry from the mid-19th century forward are, to a large part, driving dynamics in reindeer husbandry and environmental protection, resulting in a system of interlocking panarchies with large implications for the competing land uses.
|
|
| 3. |
|
|
