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- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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- Shimwell, T. W., et al.
(författare)
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The LOFAR Two-metre Sky Survey: V. Second data release
- 2022
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 659
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this data release from the ongoing LOw-Frequency ARray (LOFAR) Two-metre Sky Survey we present 120a 168 MHz images covering 27% of the northern sky. Our coverage is split into two regions centred at approximately 12h45m +44 30a and 1h00m +28 00a and spanning 4178 and 1457 square degrees respectively. The images were derived from 3451 h (7.6 PB) of LOFAR High Band Antenna data which were corrected for the direction-independent instrumental properties as well as direction-dependent ionospheric distortions during extensive, but fully automated, data processing. A catalogue of 4 396 228 radio sources is derived from our total intensity (Stokes I) maps, where the majority of these have never been detected at radio wavelengths before. At 6a resolution, our full bandwidth Stokes I continuum maps with a central frequency of 144 MHz have: a median rms sensitivity of 83 μJy beama 1; a flux density scale accuracy of approximately 10%; an astrometric accuracy of 0.2a; and we estimate the point-source completeness to be 90% at a peak brightness of 0.8 mJy beama 1. By creating three 16 MHz bandwidth images across the band we are able to measure the in-band spectral index of many sources, albeit with an error on the derived spectral index of > a ±a 0.2 which is a consequence of our flux-density scale accuracy and small fractional bandwidth. Our circular polarisation (Stokes V) 20a resolution 120a168 MHz continuum images have a median rms sensitivity of 95 μJy beama 1, and we estimate a Stokes I to Stokes V leakage of 0.056%. Our linear polarisation (Stokes Q and Stokes U) image cubes consist of 480a A a 97.6 kHz wide planes and have a median rms sensitivity per plane of 10.8 mJy beama 1 at 4a and 2.2 mJy beama 1 at 20a; we estimate the Stokes I to Stokes Q/U leakage to be approximately 0.2%. Here we characterise and publicly release our Stokes I, Q, U and V images in addition to the calibrated uv-data to facilitate the thorough scientific exploitation of this unique dataset.
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- Henning, G., et al.
(författare)
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Exploring the stability of super heavy elements: First measurement of the fission barrier of 254No
- 2014
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Ingår i: EPJ Web of Conferences. - : EDP Sciences. - 2101-6275 .- 2100-014X. ; 66
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The gamma-ray multiplicity and total energy emitted by the heavy nucleus 254No have been measured at 2 different beam energies. From these measurements, the initial distributions of spin I and excitation energy E * of 254No were constructed. The distributions display a saturation in excitation energy, which allows a direct determination of the fission barrier. 254No is the heaviest shell-stabilized nucleus with a measured fission barrier. © Owned by the authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2014.
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| 7. |
- Henning, G., et al.
(författare)
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Fission Barrier of Superheavy Nuclei and Persistence of Shell Effects at High Spin: Cases of No-254 and Th-220
- 2014
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Ingår i: Physical Review Letters. - 1079-7114 .- 0031-9007. ; 113:26
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report on the first measurement of the fission barrier height in a heavy shell-stabilized nucleus. The fission barrier height of No-254 is measured to be B-f = 6.0 +/- 0.5 MeV at spin 15 (h) over bar and, by extrapolation, B-f = 6.6 +/- 0.9 MeV at spin 0 (h) over bar. This information is deduced from the measured distribution of entry points in the excitation energy versus spin plane. The same measurement is performed for Th-220 and only a lower limit of the fission barrier height can be determined: B-f (I) > 8 MeV. Comparisons with theoretical fission barriers test theories that predict properties of superheavy elements.
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- Lopez-Martens, A., et al.
(författare)
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Stability and synthesis of superheavy elements: Fighting the battle against fission - example of No-254
- 2016
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Ingår i: EPJ Web of Conferences. - : EDP Sciences. - 2101-6275 .- 2100-014X. - 9782759890118 ; 131
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Superheavy nuclei exist solely due to quantum shell effects, which create a pocket in the potential-energy surface of the nucleus, thus providing a barrier against spontaneous fission. Determining the height of the fission barrier and its angular-momentum dependence is important to quantify the role that microscopic shell corrections play in enhancing and extending the limits of nuclear stability. In this talk, the first measurement of a fission barrier in the very heavy nucleus No-254 will be presented.
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