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1.
  • Bellavia, Andrea, et al. (författare)
  • Alcohol consumption and mortality : a dose-response analysis in terms of time
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Annals of Epidemiology. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC. - 1047-2797 .- 1873-2585. ; 24:4, s. 291-296
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Purpose: Low-to-moderate alcohol consumption is associated with decreased mortality. However, many aspects of this association are still debated. Our aim was to complement available information by conducting a dose-response analysis of the association between alcohol consumption and survival time. Methods: In a Swedish population-based cohort of 67,706 middle-aged and elderly men and women, frequency and amount of drinking were assessed through a self-administrated questionnaire. During 15 years of follow-up, 13,323 participants died. Differences in survival (10th percentile differences, PDs) according to levels of alcohol consumption were estimated using Laplace regression. Results: We found evidence of nonlinearity between alcohol consumption and survival. Among women, we observed a rapid increase in survival up to 6 g/d of alcohol consumption (0.5 drinks/d) where survival was 17 months longer (PD = 17 months, 95% confidence interval, 10 to 24). After this peak, higher alcohol consumption was progressively associated with shorter survival. Among men, survival improved up to 15 g/d (1.5 drinks/d) where we observed a PD of 15 months (95% confidence interval, 8 to 22). Conclusions: Low alcohol consumption was associated with improved survival up to 1.5 years for women with an average consumption of 0.5 drinks per day and to 13 years for men with an average consumption of 1.5 drinks per day. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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2.
  • Bellavia, Andrea, et al. (författare)
  • Differences in age at death according to smoking and age at menopause
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Menopause. - : LIPPINCOTT WILLIAMS & WILKINS. - 1072-3714 .- 1530-0374. ; 23:1, s. 108-110
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objective: Younger age at menopause is associated with overall mortality, and cigarette smoking is the only lifestyle factor influencing this association. However, the combined effects of age at menopause and smoking have never been quantified in terms of survival time. Our aim was to evaluate, in a large cohort of Swedish women, differences in age at death according to age at menopause and smoking status. Methods: Age at menopause and smoking were assessed, using a self-administered questionnaire, in a population-based cohort of 25,474 women aged 48 to 83 years. Laplace regression was used to calculate differences in median age at death (50th percentile difference [PD]) according to smoking and age at menopause. Results: Across 16 years of follow-up, 5,942 participants died. The difference in median age at death between women with menopause at 40 years and women with menopause at 60 years was 1.3 years (50th PD, 1.3; 95% CI, 0.3-2.2). Compared with current smokers, former smokers and never smokers had older median age at death-2.5 years (50th PD, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.9-3.1) and 3.6 years (50th PD, 3.6; 95% CI, 3.1-4.1), respectively. When analysis was restricted to current smokers, the difference in age at death between women with menopause at 40 years and women with menopause at 60 years increased to 2.6 years (50th PD, 2.6; 95% CI, 0.8-4.5). No association among never smokers was observed. Conclusions: Younger age at menopause is linearly associated with shorter survival. This association tends to be stronger among current smokers.
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3.
  • Bellavia, Andrea, et al. (författare)
  • Differences in survival associated with processed and with nonprocessed red meat consumption
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: American Journal of Clinical Nutrition. - : OXFORD UNIV PRESS. - 0002-9165 .- 1938-3207. ; 100:3, s. 924-929
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: High red meat consumption is associated with an increased mortality risk. This association is partly explained by the negative effect of processed meat consumption, which is widely established. The role of nonprocessed meat is unclear. Objective: The objective was to examine the combined association of processed and nonprocessed meat consumption with survival in a Swedish large prospective cohort. Design: In a population-based cohort of 74,645 Swedish men (40,089) and women (34,556), red meat consumption was assessed through a self-administered questionnaire. We estimated differences in survival [15th percentile differences (PDs), differences in the time by which the first 15% of the cohort died] according to levels of total red meat and combined levels of processed and nonprocessed red meat consumption. Results: During 15 y of follow-up (January 1998 to December 2012), we documented 16,683 deaths (6948 women; 9735 men). Compared with no consumption, consumption of red meat >100 g/d was progressively associated with shorter survival-up to 2 y for participants consuming an average of 300 g/d (15th PD: -21 mo; 95% CI: -31, -10). Compared with no consumption, high consumption of processed red meat (100 g/d) was associated with shorter survival (15th PD: -9 mo; 95% CI: -16, -2). High and moderate intakes of nonprocessed red meat were associated with shorter survival only when accompanied by a high intake of processed red meat. Conclusions: We found that high total red meat consumption was associated with progressively shorter survival, largely because of the consumption of processed red meat. Consumption of nonprocessed red meat alone was not associated with shorter survival. The Swedish Mammography Cohort and the Cohort of Swedish Men were registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01127698 and NCT01127711, respectively.
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4.
  • Bellavia, Andrea, et al. (författare)
  • Fruit and vegetable consumption and all-cause mortality : a dose-response analysis.
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: American Journal of Clinical Nutrition. - 0002-9165 .- 1938-3207. ; 98:2, s. 454-459
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: The association between fruit and vegetable (FV) consumption and overall mortality has seldom been investigated in large cohort studies. Findings from the few available studies are inconsistent.OBJECTIVE: The objective was to examine the dose-response relation between FV consumption and mortality, in terms of both time and rate, in a large prospective cohort of Swedish men and women.DESIGN: FV consumption was assessed through a self-administrated questionnaire in a population-based cohort of 71,706 participants (38,221 men and 33,485 women) aged 45-83 y. We performed a dose-response analysis to evaluate 10th survival percentile differences (PDs) by using Laplace regression and estimated HRs by using Cox regression.RESULTS: During 13 y of follow-up, 11,439 deaths (6803 men and 4636 women) occurred in the cohort. In comparison with 5 servings FV/d, a lower consumption was progressively associated with shorter survival and higher mortality rates. Those who never consumed FV lived 3 y shorter (PD: -37 mo; 95% CI: -58, -16 mo) and had a 53% higher mortality rate (HR: 1.53; 95% CI: 1.19, 1.99) than did those who consumed 5 servings FV/d. Consideration of fruit and vegetables separately showed that those who never consumed fruit lived 19 mo shorter (PD: -19 mo; 95% CI: -29, -10 mo) than did those who ate 1 fruit/d. Participants who consumed 3 vegetables/d lived 32 mo longer than did those who never consumed vegetables (PD: 32 mo; 96% CI: 13, 51 mo).CONCLUSION: FV consumption <5 servings/d is associated with progressively shorter survival and higher mortality rates. The Swedish Mammography Cohort and the Cohort of Swedish Men were registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01127698 and NCT01127711, respectively.
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5.
  • Bellavia, Andrea, et al. (författare)
  • Physical activity and mortality in a prospective cohort of middle-aged and elderly men - : a time perspective.
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity. - 1479-5868 .- 1479-5868. ; 10
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Higher physical activity (PA) levels are known to be associated with lower risk of death. Less attention, however, has been paid to directly evaluate the effect of PA on the time by which a certain fraction of the population has died.METHODS: A population-based cohort of 29,362 men 45 to 79 years of age was followed from January 1998 to December 2010. A total of 4,570 men died. PA was assessed through a self-administrated questionnaire. Adjusted differences in the number of months by which 10% (10th percentile) of the cohort has died, according to levels of total PA (TPA) and different domains of PA were estimated using Laplace regression.RESULTS: Overall, the 10th survival percentile was 9.6 years, that is, 90% of the cohort lived longer than 9.6 years. We found a strong evidence of non-linearity between TPA and the 10th survival percentile (P-value < 0.001). Compared to men with the lowest TPA (29 metabolic equivalents (MET)-hrs/day), men with a median TPA (41 MET-hrs/day) had 30 months longer survival (95% CI: 25-35). Below the median TPA, every increment of 4 MET-hrs/day, approximately a 30 minutes brisk pace daily walk, was associated with a longer survival of 11 months (95% CI: 8-15). Above the median TPA additional activity was not significantly associated with better survival.CONCLUSIONS: We found that a physically active lifestyle is associated with a substantial improvement in survival time, up to 2.5 years over 13 years of follow-up.
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6.
  • Bellavia, Andrea, et al. (författare)
  • Quantifying the benefits of Mediterranean diet in terms of survival.
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: European Journal of Epidemiology. - 0393-2990 .- 1573-7284. ; 31:5, s. 527-30
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Beneficial effects of Mediterranean diet (MD) have been consistently documented. However, to fully understand the public health implications of MD adherence, an informative step is to quantify these effects in terms of survival time differences. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of MD on survival, presenting results in terms of differences in median age at death. We used data from 71,333 participants from a large population-based cohort of Swedish men and women, followed-up between January 1, 1998, and December 31, 2012. A total score of MD, ranging from 0 to 8, was calculated by including information on vegetables and fruits consumption, legumes and nuts, non-refined/high fiber grains, fermented dairy products, fish, red meat, use of olive oil/rapeseed oil, and moderate alcohol intake. Multivariable-adjusted differences in median age at death were estimated with Laplace regression and presented as a function of the MD score. During 15 years of follow-up we documented 14,697 deaths. We observed a linear dose-response association between the MD score and median age at death, with higher score associated with longer survival. The difference in median age at death between participants with the extreme scores (0 vs 8) of MD was up to 2 years (23 months, 95 % CI: 16-29). In this study we documented that adherence to MD may accrue benefits up to 2 years of longer survival.
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7.
  • Bellavia, Andrea, et al. (författare)
  • Sleep Duration and Survival Percentiles Across Categories of Physical Activity
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: American Journal of Epidemiology. - : OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC. - 0002-9262 .- 1476-6256. ; 179:4, s. 484-491
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The association between long sleep duration and death is not fully understood. Long sleep is associated with low physical activity, which is a strong predictor of death. Our aim was to investigate the association between sleep duration and death across categories of total physical activity in a large prospective cohort of Swedish men and women. We followed a population-based cohort of 70,973 participants (37,846 men and 33,127 women), aged 45-83 years, from January 1998 to December 2012. Sleep duration and physical activity levels were assessed through a questionnaire. We evaluated the association of interest in terms of mortality rates by estimating hazard ratios with Cox regression and in terms of survival by evaluating 15th survival percentile differences with Laplace regression. During 15 years of follow-up, we recorded 14,575 deaths (8,436 men and 6,139 women). We observed a significant interaction between sleep duration and physical activity in predicting death (P < 0.001). Long sleep duration (>8 hours) was associated with increased mortality risk (hazard ratio = 1.24; 95% confidence interval: 1.11, 1.39) and shorter survival (15th percentile difference = -20 months; 95% confidence interval: -30, -11) among only those with low physical activity. The association between long sleep duration and death might be partly explained by comorbidity with low physical activity.
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8.
  • Bellavia, Andrea, et al. (författare)
  • Time-based measures of treatment effect : reassessment of ticagrelor and clopidogrel from the PLATO trial
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Open heart. - 2053-3624. ; 4:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • OBJECTIVE: Treatment effects to binary endpoints using time-to-event data in randomised controlled trials are typically summarised by reporting HRs derived with Cox proportional hazard models. Alternative and complementary methods include summarising the between-treatment differences on the metric time scale, quantifying the effect as delay of the event (DoE). The aim of this study was to reassess data from the PLATO study expressing the effects as the time by which the main outcomes are delayed or hastened due to treatment.METHODS: PLATO was a randomised controlled double-blind multicentre study (n=18,624), conducted between 2006 and 2008, which demonstrated superiority of the antiplatelet treatment ticagrelor over clopidogrel in reducing risk of several cardiovascular events. In the present study, four of the main PLATO outcomes were reassessed by calculating the time by which an event may be delayed due to the treatment.RESULTS: The effects of ticagrelor, as compared with clopidogrel, consisted of a substantial delay of the evaluated outcomes, ranging from 83 to 98 days over 400-day follow-up. The Delay of Events Curves showed that the effects progressively increased over time, and the significant findings were concordant with those presented in the original PLATO study.CONCLUSIONS: This study confirmed evidence of a beneficial effect of ticagrelor over clopidogrel, and provided the magnitude of such effects in terms of delayed event time. Investigating time-to-event data with a percentile approach allows presenting treatment effects from randomised controlled studies as absolute measures of the time by which an event may be delayed due to the treatment.TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: PLATO (www.clinicaltrials.gov; NCT00391872); Results.
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9.
  • Bellavia, Andrea, et al. (författare)
  • Using Laplace Regression to Model and Predict Percentiles of Age at Death When Age Is the Primary Time Scale
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: American Journal of Epidemiology. - : OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC. - 0002-9262 .- 1476-6256. ; 182:3, s. 271-277
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Increasingly often in epidemiologic research, associations between survival time and predictors of interest are measured by differences between distribution functions rather than hazard functions. For example, differences in percentiles of survival time, expressed in absolute time units (e.g., weeks), may complement the popular risk ratios, which are unitless measures. When analyzing time to an event of interest (e.g., death) in prospective cohort studies, the time scale can be set to start at birth or at study entry. The advantages of one time origin over the other have been thoroughly explored for the estimation of risks but not for the estimation of survival percentiles. In this paper, we analyze the use of different time scales in the estimation of survival percentiles with Laplace regression. Using this regression method, investigators can estimate percentiles of survival time over levels of an exposure of interest while adjusting for potential confounders. Our findings may help to improve modeling strategies and ease interpretation in the estimation of survival percentiles in prospective cohort studies.
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10.
  • Byberg, Liisa, et al. (författare)
  • Fruit and vegetable intake and risk of hip fracture : A cohort study of Swedish men and women
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Journal of Bone and Mineral Research. - 0884-0431 .- 1523-4681. ; 30:6, s. 976-984
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Dietary guidelines recommend a daily intake of five servings of fruit and vegetables. Whether such intakes are associated with a lower risk of hip fracture is at present unclear. The aim of the present study was to investigate the dose-response association between habitual fruit and vegetable intake and hip fracture in a cohort study based on 40,644 men from the Cohort of Swedish Men (COSM) and 34,947 women from the Swedish Mammography Cohort (SMC) (total n=75,591), free from cardiovascular disease and cancer, who answered lifestyle questionnaires in 1997 (age 45-83 years). Intake of fruit and vegetables (servings/day) was assessed by food frequency questionnaire and incident hip fractures were retrieved from the Swedish Patient Register (1998-2010). The mean follow-up time was 14.2 years. One third of the participants reported an intake of fruit and vegetables of >5 servings/day, one third >3 to ≤5 servings/day, 28% >1 to ≤3 servings/day, and 6% reported ≤1 serving/day. During 1,037,645 person-years we observed 3,644 hip fractures (2,266, 62%, in women). The doseresponse association was found to be strongly non-linear (P<0.001). Men and women with zero consumption had 88% higher rate of hip fracture compared with those consuming 5 servings/day; adjusted hazard ratio (HR), 1.88 (95% CI, 1.53-2.32). The rate was gradually lower with higher intakes; adjusted HR for 1 vs 5 servings/day, 1.35 (95% CI, 1.21-1.58). However, more than 5 servings/day did not confer additionally lower HRs (adjusted HR for 8 vs. 5 servings/day, 0.96 (95% CI, 0.90-1.03). Similar results were observed when men and women were analyzed separately. We conclude that there is a dose-response association between fruit and vegetable intake and hip fracture such that an intake below the recommended 5 servings/day confers higher rates of hip fracture. Intakes above this recommendation do not seem to further lower the risk.
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