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Sökning: WFRF:(Perroud Marjorie)

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1.
  • Grant, Luke, et al. (författare)
  • Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - : Springer Nature. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 14:11, s. 849-854
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Lake ecosystems are jeopardized by the impacts of climate change on ice seasonality and water temperatures. Yet historical simulations have not been used to formally attribute changes in lake ice and temperature to anthropogenic drivers. In addition, future projections of these properties are limited to individual lakes or global simulations from single lake models. Here we uncover the human imprint on lakes worldwide using hindcasts and projections from five lake models. Reanalysed trends in lake temperature and ice cover in recent decades are extremely unlikely to be explained by pre-industrial climate variability alone. Ice-cover trends in reanalysis are consistent with lake model simulations under historical conditions, providing attribution of lake changes to anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, lake temperature, ice thickness and duration scale robustly with global mean air temperature across future climate scenarios (+0.9 °C °Cair–1, –0.033 m °Cair–1 and –9.7 d °Cair–1, respectively). These impacts would profoundly alter the functioning of lake ecosystems and the services they provide.
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2.
  • Woolway, R. Iestyn, et al. (författare)
  • Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : NATURE RESEARCH. - 2041-1723 .- 2041-1723. ; 12:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • One of the most important physical characteristics driving lifecycle events in lakes is stratification. Already subtle variations in the timing of stratification onset and break-up (phenology) are known to have major ecological effects, mainly by determining the availability of light, nutrients, carbon and oxygen to organisms. Despite its ecological importance, historic and future global changes in stratification phenology are unknown. Here, we used a lake-climate model ensemble and long-term observational data, to investigate changes in lake stratification phenology across the Northern Hemisphere from 1901 to 2099. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, stratification will begin 22.0 +/- 7.0 days earlier and end 11.3 +/- 4.7 days later by the end of this century. It is very likely that this 33.3 +/- 11.7 day prolongation in stratification will accelerate lake deoxygenation with subsequent effects on nutrient mineralization and phosphorus release from lake sediments. Further misalignment of lifecycle events, with possible irreversible changes for lake ecosystems, is also likely.
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