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| 2. |
- Johansson, Daniel, 1975, et al.
(författare)
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Methane in Cllimate Policies
- 2006
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the First Regional Symposium on Carbon Management - Carbon Management and Opportunities for the Petroleum Industry.
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)
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| 4. |
- Johansson, Daniel, 1975, et al.
(författare)
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OPEC strategies and oil rent in a climate conscious world
- 2009
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Ingår i: The Energy Journal. - 0195-6574 .- 1944-9089. ; 30:3, s. 23-50
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In the UNFCCC process, energy exporting countries (primarily OPEC) claim compensation for losses in expected oil rent due to CO 2 mitigation measures. However, there are mechanisms that may raise rather than lower the oil rent. If a carbon price is implemented universally, the cost of using oil substitutes such as unconventional oil or synthetic diesel from coal or natural gas will increase even more than the cost of using conventional oil. Here, a dynamic model that takes into account OPEC's dominant position in the world's liquid fuel market is developed in order to analyze these mechanisms. In this model, OPEC is assumed to act as strategic leader while all other liquid fuel producers act as price-takers. We find that the net present value of OPECs conventional oil rent increases by about 5% due to the carbon prices needed to reach stringent CO 2 emission targets. For less ambitious targets, the increase in oil rent could be even higher. An extensive sensitivity analysis is also performed, which corroborates the main result.
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| 5. |
- Johansson, Daniel, 1975, et al.
(författare)
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The cost of using global warming potentials: analysing the trade-off between CO2, CH4, and N2O
- 2006
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Ingår i: Climatic Change. - 1573-1480 .- 0165-0009. ; 77:3-4, s. 291-309
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The metric governing the trade-off between different greenhouse gases in the Kyoto Protocol, the Global Warming Potentials (GWPs), has received ample critique from both scientific and economic points of view. Here we use an integrated climate-economic optimization model to estimate the cost-effective trade-off between CO2, CH4 and N2O when meeting a temperature stabilization target. We then estimate the increased cost from using GWPs when meeting the same temperature target. Although the efficient valuation of the gases differs significantly from their respective GWPs, the potential economic benefit of valuing them in a more correct way amounts to 3.8 percent of the overall costs of meeting the temperature stabilization target in the base case. In absolute value, this corresponds to an additional net present value cost of US$2000100 billion. To corroborate our findings we perform a Monte Carlo-analysis where several key parameters are randomly varied simultaneously. The result from this exercise shows that our main result is robust to a wide range of changes in the key parameter values, giving a median economic loss from using GWPs of 4.2 percent.
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| 8. |
- Johansson, Daniel, 1975, et al.
(författare)
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Uncertainty and Learning: Implications for the Trade-off between Short-lived and Long-lived Greenhouse Gases
- 2008
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Ingår i: Climatic Change. - 1573-1480 .- 0165-0009. ; 88:3-4, s. 293-309
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The economic benefits of a multi-gas approach to climate change mitigation areclear. However, there is still a debate on how to make the trade-off between differentgreenhouse gases (GHGs). The trade-off debate has mainly centered on the use of GlobalWarming Potentials (GWPs), governing the trade-off under the Kyoto Protocol, with resultsshowing that the cost-effective valuation of short-lived GHGs, like methane (CH4), shouldbe lower than its current GWP value if the ultimate aim is to stabilize the anthropogenictemperature change. However, contrary to this, there have also been proposals that earlymitigation mainly should be targeted on short-lived GHGs. In this paper we analyze thecost-effective trade-off between a short-lived GHG, CH4, and a long-lived GHG, carbondioxide (CO2), when a temperature target is to be met, taking into consideration the currentuncertainty of the climate sensitivity as well as the likelihood that this will be reduced in thefuture. The analysis is carried out using an integrated climate and economic model(MiMiC) and the results from this model are explored and explained using a simplifiedanalytical economic model. The main finding is that the introduction of uncertainty andlearning about the climate sensitivity increases the near-term cost-effective valuation ofCH4 relative to CO2. The larger the uncertainty span, the higher the valuation of the shortlivedgas. For an uncertainty span of ±1°C around an expected climate sensitivity of 3°C,CH4 is cost-effectively valued 6.8 times as high as CO2 in year 2005. This is almost twiceas high as the valuation in a deterministic case, but still significantly lower than its GWP100value.
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| 9. |
- Persson, Martin, 1976, et al.
(författare)
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Climate metrics and the carbon footprint of livestock products: where's the beef?
- 2015
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9318 .- 1748-9326. ; 10:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The livestock sector is estimated to account for 15% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, 80% of which originate from ruminant animal systems due to high emissions of methane (CH4) from enteric fermentation and manure management. However, recent analyses have argued that the carbon footprint (CF) of ruminant meat and dairy products are substantially reduced if one adopts alternative metrics for comparing emissions of GHGs-e.g., the 100 year global temperature change potential (GTP(100)), instead of the commonly used 100 year global warming potential (GWP(100))-due to a lower valuation of CH4 emissions. This raises the question of which metric to use. Ideally, the choice of metric should be related to a climate policy goal. Here, we argue that basing current GHG metrics solely on temperature impact 100 years into the future is inconsistent with the current global climate goal of limiting warming to 2 degrees C, a limit that is likely to be reached well within 100 years. A reasonable GTP value for CH4, accounting for current projections for when 2 degrees C warming will be reached, is about 18, leading to a current CF of 19 kg CO2-eq. per kilo beef (carcass weight, average European system), 20% lower than if evaluated using GWP(100). Further, we show that an application of the GTP metric consistent with a 2 degrees C climate limit leads to the valuation of CH4 increasing rapidly over time as the temperature ceiling is approached. This means that the CF for beef would rise by around 2.5% per year in the coming decades, surpassing the GWP based footprint in only ten years. Consequently, the impact on the livestock sector of substituting GTPs for GWPs would be modest in the near term, but could potentially be very large in the future due to a much higher (>50%) and rapidly appreciating CF.
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| 10. |
- Persson, Tobias A, 1975, et al.
(författare)
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Major oil exporters may profit rather than lose, in a carbon-constrained world.
- 2007
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Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4215. ; 35:12, s. 6346-6353
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) claims compensation for losses in expected oil export revenues due to CO2 mitigation measures in developing countries. These losses are expected for two primary reasons: a reduction in the consumption of oil in importing countries and a reduction in the producer price of oil (taxation in an importing country implies a transfer of rents from producers to consumers). So far, most studies have focused on these two mechanisms and corroborated that revenue losses for OPEC are to be expected. However, there are also mechanisms that may be expected to raise the price of oil products. In a cost-effective regime for dealing with climate change, i.e., a regime in which all or most countries participate and in which the same carbon price is applied on all carbon-emitting activities, the cost of using unconventional oil, or synthetic diesel from coal, will increase even more than the cost of using conventional oil. Given that reserves of conventional oil are expected to dwindle over time, heavy oils and coal to liquids might set the long-run price for liquid fuels, which means that the price of oil would increase beyond the carbon fee; i.e., the rent on conventional oil would increase. We use an energy-economic optimization model to analyze these three mechanisms. We find that the net present value of OPEC revenue from conventional oil increases slightly (at most by 4 percent) with a global CO2 restriction regime. We also consider conditions under which this result does not hold.
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