| 1. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 2. |
- Adrianto, Indra, et al.
(författare)
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Association of a functional variant downstream of TNFAIP3 with systemic lupus erythematosus
- 2011
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 43:3, s. 253-258
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE, MIM152700) is an autoimmune disease characterized by self-reactive antibodies resulting in systemic inflammation and organ failure. TNFAIP3, encoding the ubiquitin-modifying enzyme A20, is an established susceptibility locus for SLE. By fine mapping and genomic re-sequencing in ethnically diverse populations, we fully characterized the TNFAIP3 risk haplotype and identified a TT>A polymorphic dinucleotide (deletion T followed by a T to A transversion) associated with SLE in subjects of European (P = 1.58 x 10(-8), odds ratio = 1.70) and Korean (P = 8.33 x 10(-10), odds ratio = 2.54) ancestry. This variant, located in a region of high conservation and regulatory potential, bound a nuclear protein complex composed of NF-kappa B subunits with reduced avidity. Further, compared with the non-risk haplotype, the haplotype carrying this variant resulted in reduced TNFAIP3 mRNA and A20 protein expression. These results establish this TT>A variant as the most likely functional polymorphism responsible for the association between TNFAIP3 and SLE.
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| 3. |
- Barber, Megan R.W., et al.
(författare)
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Economic Evaluation of Damage Accrual in an International Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Inception Cohort Using a Multistate Model Approach
- 2020
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Ingår i: Arthritis Care and Research. - : Wiley. - 2151-464X .- 2151-4658. ; 72:12, s. 1800-1808
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: There is a paucity of data regarding health care costs associated with damage accrual in systemic lupus erythematosus. The present study was undertaken to describe costs associated with damage states across the disease course using multistate modeling. Methods: Patients from 33 centers in 11 countries were enrolled in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) inception cohort within 15 months of diagnosis. Annual data on demographics, disease activity, damage (SLICC/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index [SDI]), hospitalizations, medications, dialysis, and selected procedures were collected. Ten-year cumulative costs (Canadian dollars) were estimated by multiplying annual costs associated with each SDI state by the expected state duration using a multistate model. Results: A total of 1,687 patients participated; 88.7% were female, 49.0% were white, mean ± SD age at diagnosis was 34.6 ± 13.3 years, and mean time to follow-up was 8.9 years (range 0.6–18.5 years). Mean annual costs were higher for those with higher SDI scores as follows: $22,006 (Canadian) (95% confidence interval [95% CI] $16,662, $27,350) for SDI scores ≥5 versus $1,833 (95% CI $1,134, $2,532) for SDI scores of 0. Similarly, 10-year cumulative costs were higher for those with higher SDI scores at the beginning of the 10-year interval as follows: $189,073 (Canadian) (95% CI $142,318, $235,827) for SDI scores ≥5 versus $21,713 (95% CI $13,639, $29,788) for SDI scores of 0. Conclusion: Patients with the highest SDI scores incur 10-year cumulative costs that are ~9-fold higher than those with the lowest SDI scores. By estimating the damage trajectory and incorporating annual costs, data on damage can be used to estimate future costs, which is critical knowledge for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of novel therapies.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Enocsson, Helena, et al.
(författare)
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Soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) levels predict damage accrual in patients with recent-onset systemic lupus erythematosus
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Autoimmunity. - : Elsevier BV. - 0896-8411 .- 1095-9157. ; 106
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: The soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) has potential as a prognosis and severity biomarker in several inflammatory and infectious diseases. In a previous cross-sectional study, suPAR levels were shown to reflect damage accrual in cases of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Herein, we evaluated suPAR as a predictor of future organ damage in recent-onset SLE. Methods: Included were 344 patients from the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) Inception Cohort who met the 1997 American College of Rheumatology classification criteria with 5-years of follow-up data available. Baseline sera from patients and age- and sex-matched controls were assayed for suPAR. Organ damage was assessed annually using the SLICC/ACR damage index (SDI). Results: The levels of suPAR were higher in patients who accrued damage, particularly those with SDI≥2 at 5 years (N = 32, 46.8% increase, p = 0.004), as compared to patients without damage. Logistic regression analysis revealed a significant impact of suPAR on SDI outcome (SDI≥2; OR = 1.14; 95% CI 1.03–1.26), also after adjustment for confounding factors. In an optimized logistic regression to predict damage, suPAR persisted as a predictor, together with baseline disease activity (SLEDAI-2K), age, and non-Caucasian ethnicity (model AUC = 0.77). Dissecting SDI into organ systems revealed higher suPAR levels in patients who developed musculoskeletal damage (SDI≥1; p = 0.007). Conclusion: Prognostic biomarkers identify patients who are at risk of acquiring early damage and therefore need careful observation and targeted treatment strategies. Overall, suPAR constitutes an interesting biomarker for patient stratification and for identifying SLE patients who are at risk of acquiring organ damage during the first 5 years of disease.
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| 6. |
- Fanouriakis, Antonis, et al.
(författare)
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EULAR recommendations for the management of systemic lupus erythematosus : 2023 update
- 2024
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Ingår i: Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases. - : HighWire Press. - 0003-4967 .- 1468-2060. ; 83:1, s. 15-29
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVES: To update the EULAR recommendations for the management of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) based on emerging new evidence.METHODS: An international Task Force formed the questions for the systematic literature reviews (January 2018-December 2022), followed by formulation and finalisation of the statements after a series of meetings. A predefined voting process was applied to each overarching principle and recommendation. Levels of evidence and strengths of recommendation were assigned, and participants finally provided their level of agreement with each item.RESULTS: The Task Force agreed on 5 overarching principles and 13 recommendations, concerning the use of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), glucocorticoids (GC), immunosuppressive drugs (ISDs) (including methotrexate, mycophenolate, azathioprine, cyclophosphamide (CYC)), calcineurin inhibitors (CNIs, cyclosporine, tacrolimus, voclosporin) and biologics (belimumab, anifrolumab, rituximab). Advice is also provided on treatment strategies and targets of therapy, assessment of response, combination and sequential therapies, and tapering of therapy. HCQ is recommended for all patients with lupus at a target dose 5 mg/kg real body weight/day, considering the individual's risk for flares and retinal toxicity. GC are used as 'bridging therapy' during periods of disease activity; for maintenance treatment, they should be minimised to equal or less than 5 mg/day (prednisone equivalent) and, when possible, withdrawn. Prompt initiation of ISDs (methotrexate, azathioprine, mycophenolate) and/or biological agents (anifrolumab, belimumab) should be considered to control the disease and facilitate GC tapering/discontinuation. CYC and rituximab should be considered in organ-threatening and refractory disease, respectively. For active lupus nephritis, GC, mycophenolate or low-dose intravenous CYC are recommended as anchor drugs, and add-on therapy with belimumab or CNIs (voclosporin or tacrolimus) should be considered. Updated specific recommendations are also provided for cutaneous, neuropsychiatric and haematological disease, SLE-associated antiphospholipid syndrome, kidney protection, as well as preventative measures for infections, osteoporosis, cardiovascular disease.CONCLUSION: The updated recommendations provide consensus guidance on the management of SLE, combining evidence and expert opinion.
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| 7. |
- Ferreira, Isabel, et al.
(författare)
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Nitrated nucleosome levels and neuropsychiatric events in systemic lupus erythematosus; a multi-center retrospective case-control study
- 2017
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Ingår i: Arthritis Research and Therapy. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1478-6354 .- 1478-6362. ; 19:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: In patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) there is no serological test that will reliably distinguish neuropsychiatric (NP) events due to active SLE from those due to other causes. Previously we showed that serum levels of nitrated nucleosomes (NN) were elevated in a small number of patients with NPSLE. Here we measured serum NN in samples from a larger population of patients with SLE and NP events to see whether elevated serum NN could be a marker for NPSLE. Methods: We obtained serum samples from patients in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborative Clinics (SLICC) inception cohort. This included 216 patients with NP events and two matched controls with SLE but no NP events for each of these patients. For the NP patients we tested samples taken before, during and after the NP event. Results: Twenty-six patients had events attributed to SLE according to the most stringent SLICC attribution rule. In these patients there was no association between onset of event and elevated serum NN. In 190 patients in whom events were not attributed to SLE by the SLICC rules, median serum NN was elevated at the onset of event (P = 0.006). The predominant clinical features in this group of 190 patients were headache, mood disorders and anxiety. Conclusions: Serum NN levels rise at the time of an NP event in a proportion of patients with SLE. Further studies are needed to determine the value of serum NN as a biomarker for NPSLE.
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| 8. |
- Gateva, Vesela, et al.
(författare)
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A large-scale replication study identifies TNIP1, PRDM1, JAZF1, UHRF1BP1 and IL10 as risk loci for systemic lupus erythematosus
- 2009
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 41:11, s. 1228-1233
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Genome-wide association studies have recently identified at least 15 susceptibility loci for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). To confirm additional risk loci, we selected SNPs from 2,466 regions that showed nominal evidence of association to SLE (P < 0.05) in a genome-wide study and genotyped them in an independent sample of 1,963 cases and 4,329 controls. This replication effort identified five new SLE susceptibility loci (P < 5 x 10(-8)): TNIP1 (odds ratio (OR) = 1.27), PRDM1 (OR = 1.20), JAZF1 (OR = 1.20), UHRF1BP1 (OR = 1.17) and IL10 (OR = 1.19). We identified 21 additional candidate loci with P< or = 1 x 10(-5). A candidate screen of alleles previously associated with other autoimmune diseases suggested five loci (P < 1 x 10(-3)) that may contribute to SLE: IFIH1, CFB, CLEC16A, IL12B and SH2B3. These results expand the number of confirmed and candidate SLE susceptibility loci and implicate several key immunologic pathways in SLE pathogenesis.
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| 9. |
- Graham, R. Robert, et al.
(författare)
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Three functional variants of IFN regulatory factor 5 (IRF5) define risk and protective haplotypes for human lupus
- 2007
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 104:16, s. 6758-6763
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Systematic genome-wide studies to map genomic regions associated with human diseases are becoming more practical. Increasingly, efforts will be focused on the identification of the specific functional variants responsible for the disease. The challenges of identifying causal variants include the need for complete ascertainment of genetic variants and the need to consider the possibility of multiple causal alleles. We recently reported that risk of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is strongly associated with a common SNP in IFN regulatory factor 5 (IRF5), and that this variant altered spicing in a way that might provide a functional explanation for the reproducible association to SLE risk. Here, by resequencing and genotyping in patients with SLE, we find evidence for three functional alleles of IRF5: the previously described exon 1B splice site variant, a 30-bp in-frame insertion/deletion variant of exon 6 that alters a proline-, glutamic acid-, serine- and threonine-rich domain region, and a variant in a conserved polyA+ signal sequence that alters the length of the 3' UTR and stability of IRF5 mRNAs. Haplotypes of these three variants define at least three distinct levels of risk to SLE. Understanding how combinations of variants influence IRF5 function may offer etiological and therapeutic insights in SLE; more generally, IRF5 and SLE illustrates how multiple common variants of the same gene can together influence risk of common disease.
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| 10. |
- Hanly, John G., et al.
(författare)
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A Longitudinal Analysis of Outcomes of Lupus Nephritis in an International Inception Cohort Using a Multistate Model Approach
- 2016
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Ingår i: Arthritis & Rheumatology. - : Wiley. - 2326-5191 .- 2326-5205. ; 68:8, s. 1932-1944
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: To study bidirectional change and predictors of change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and proteinuria in lupus nephritis (LN) using a multistate modeling approach. Methods: Patients in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics inception cohort were classified annually into estimated GFR state 1 (>60 ml/minute), state 2 (30–60 ml/minute), or state 3 (3.0 gm/day), or end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or death. Using multistate modeling, relative transition rates between states indicated improvement and deterioration. Results: Of 1,826 lupus patients, 700 (38.3%) developed LN. During a mean ± SD follow-up of 5.2 ± 3.5 years, the likelihood of improvement in estimated GFR and estimated proteinuria was greater than the likelihood of deterioration. After 5 years, 62% of patients initially in estimated GFR state 3 and 11% of patients initially in estimated proteinuria state 3 transitioned to ESRD. The probability of remaining in the initial states 1, 2, and 3 was 85%, 11%, and 3%, respectively, for estimated GFR and 62%, 29%, and 4%, respectively, for estimated proteinuria. Male sex predicted improvement in estimated GFR states; older age, race/ethnicity, higher estimated proteinuria state, and higher renal biopsy chronicity scores predicted deterioration. For estimated proteinuria, race/ethnicity, earlier calendar years, damage scores without renal variables, and higher renal biopsy chronicity scores predicted deterioration; male sex, presence of lupus anticoagulant, class V nephritis, and mycophenolic acid use predicted less improvement. Conclusion: In LN, the expected improvement or deterioration in renal outcomes can be estimated by multistate modeling and is preceded by identifiable risk factors. New therapeutic interventions for LN should meet or exceed these expectations.
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