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- Pye, Steve, et al.
(författare)
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Assessing qualitative and quantitative dimensions of uncertainty in energy modelling for policy support in the United Kingdom
- 2018
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Ingår i: Energy Research & Social Science. - : Elsevier. - 2214-6296 .- 2214-6326. ; 46:June, s. 332-344
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Strategic planning for the low carbon energy transition is characterised by a high degree of uncertainty across many knowledge domains and by the high stakes involved in making decisions. Energy models can be used to assist decision makers in making robust choices that reflect the concerns of many interested stakeholders. Quantitative model insights alone, however, are insufficient as some dimensions of uncertainty can only be assessed via qualitative approaches. This includes the strength of the knowledge base underlying the models, and the biases and value-ladenness brought into the process based on the modelling choices made by users. To address this deficit in current modelling approaches in the UK context, we use the NUSAP (Numeral Unit Spread Assessment Pedigree) approach to qualify uncertainty in the energy system model, ESME. We find that a range of critical model assumptions that are highly influential on quantitative model results have weaknesses, or low pedigree scores, in aspects of the knowledge base that underpins them, and are subject to potential value-ladenness. In the case of the UK, this includes assumptions around CCS deployment and bioenergy resources, both of which are highly influential in driving model outcomes. These insights are not only crucial for improving the use of models in policy-making and providing a more comprehensive understanding of uncertainty in models, but also help to contextualise quantitative results, and identify priority future research areas for improving the knowledge base used in modelling. The NUSAP approach also promotes engagement across a broader set of stakeholders in the analytical process, and opens model assumptions up to closer scrutiny, thereby contributing to transparency.
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| 2. |
- Pye, Steve, et al.
(författare)
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The uncertain but critical role of demand reduction in meeting long-term energy decarbonisation targets
- 2014
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Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier. - 0301-4215 .- 1873-6777. ; 73, s. 575-586
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Endogenous demand responses for energy services, resulting from changing prices, have long been characterised in energy systems models. However, the uncertainty associated with such demand responses, modelled through the use of price elasticities, has often been ignored. This is problematic for two key reasons - elasticity factors used in models are highly uncertain due to the limited evidence base, while at the same time, demand response has been observed as a critical mechanism for meeting long term climate mitigation targets. This paper makes two important contributions for improving the understanding of the role of price-induced demand response. Firstly, it attempts to address the problem of unsatisfactory elasticity input assumptions by undertaking an up-to-date review of the literature. Secondly, the role of demand response under uncertainty is assessed using a probabilistic approach, focusing on its contribution to mitigation. The paper highlights that demand response does play a critical role in mitigation, ensuring a more cost-effective transition to a low carbon energy system. Crucially, the uncertainties associated with price elasticities do not weaken this finding. The transport sector is the driver of this demand response leading to important implications for policy and the focus of demand side interventions.
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