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- Hudson, Lawrence N, et al.
(författare)
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The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project
- 2017
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Ingår i: Ecology and Evolution. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 2045-7758. ; 7:1, s. 145-188
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.
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- Bixby, H., et al.
(författare)
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Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 569:7755, s. 260-4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.
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- Erhardt, Tobias, et al.
(författare)
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Decadal-scale progression of the onset of Dansgaard-Oeschger warming events
- 2019
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Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 15:2, s. 811-825
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- During the last glacial period, proxy records throughout the Northern Hemisphere document a succession of rapid millennial-scale warming events, called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. A range of different mechanisms has been proposed that can produce similar warming in model experiments; however, the progression and ultimate trigger of the events are still unknown. Because of their fast nature, the progression is challenging to reconstruct from paleoclimate data due to the limited temporal resolution achievable in many archives and cross-dating uncertainties between records. Here, we use new high-resolution multi-proxy records of sea-salt (derived from sea spray and sea ice over the North Atlantic) and terrestrial (derived from the central Asian deserts) aerosol concentrations over the period 10-60 ka from the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) and North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) ice cores in conjunction with local precipitation and temperature proxies from the NGRIP ice core to investigate the progression of environmental changes at the onset of the warming events at annual to multi-annual resolution. Our results show on average a small lead of the changes in both local precipitation and terrestrial dust aerosol concentrations over the change in sea-salt aerosol concentrations and local temperature of approximately one decade. This suggests that, connected to the reinvigoration of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and the warming in the North Atlantic, both synoptic and hemispheric atmospheric circulation changes at the onset of the DO warming, affecting both the moisture transport to Greenland and the Asian monsoon systems. Taken at face value, this suggests that a collapse of the sea-ice cover may not have been the initial trigger for the DO warming.
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- Freitag, Daniel F., et al.
(författare)
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Cardiometabolic effects of genetic upregulation of the interleukin 1 receptor antagonist: a Mendelian randomisation analysis
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology. - 2213-8595. ; 3:4, s. 243-253
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background To investigate potential cardiovascular and other effects of long-term pharmacological interleukin 1 (IL-1) inhibition, we studied genetic variants that produce inhibition of IL-1, a master regulator of inflammation. Methods We created a genetic score combining the effects of alleles of two common variants (rs6743376 and rs1542176) that are located upstream of IL1RN, the gene encoding the IL-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1Ra; an endogenous inhibitor of both IL-1 alpha and IL-1 beta); both alleles increase soluble IL-1Ra protein concentration. We compared effects on inflammation biomarkers of this genetic score with those of anakinra, the recombinant form of IL-1Ra, which has previously been studied in randomised trials of rheumatoid arthritis and other inflammatory disorders. In primary analyses, we investigated the score in relation to rheumatoid arthritis and four cardiometabolic diseases (type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, ischaemic stroke, and abdominal aortic aneurysm; 453 411 total participants). In exploratory analyses, we studied the relation of the score to many disease traits and to 24 other disorders of proposed relevance to IL-1 signalling (746 171 total participants). Findings For each IL1RN minor allele inherited, serum concentrations of IL-1Ra increased by 0.22 SD (95% CI 0.18-0.25; 12.5%; p=9.3 x 10(-33)), concentrations of interleukin 6 decreased by 0.02 SD (-0.04 to -0.01; -1,7%; p=3.5 x 10(-3)), and concentrations of C-reactive protein decreased by 0.03 SD (-0.04 to -0.02; -3.4%; p=7.7 x 10(-14)). We noted the effects of the genetic score on these inflammation biomarkers to be directionally concordant with those of anakinra. The allele count of the genetic score had roughly log-linear, dose-dependent associations with both IL-1Ra concentration and risk of coronary heart disease. For people who carried four IL-1Ra-raising alleles, the odds ratio for coronary heart disease was 1.15 (1.08-1.22; p=1.8 x 10(-6)) compared with people who carried no IL-1Ra-raising alleles; the per-allele odds ratio for coronary heart disease was 1.03 (1.02-1.04; p=3.9 x 10(-10)). Perallele odds ratios were 0.97 (0.95-0.99; p=9.9 x 10(-4)) for rheumatoid arthritis, 0.99 (0.97-1.01; p=0.47) for type 2 diabetes, 1.00 (0.98-1.02; p=0.92) for ischaemic stroke, and 1.08 (1.04-1.12; p=1.8 x 10(-5)) for abdominal aortic aneurysm. In exploratory analyses, we observed per-allele increases in concentrations of proatherogenic lipids, including LDL-cholesterol, but no clear evidence of association for blood pressure, glycaemic traits, or any of the 24 other disorders studied. Modelling suggested that the observed increase in LDL-cholesterol could account for about a third of the association observed between the genetic score and increased coronary risk. Interpretation Human genetic data suggest that long-term dual IL-1 alpha/beta inhibition could increase cardiovascular risk and, conversely, reduce the risk of development of rheumatoid arthritis. The cardiovascular risk might, in part, be mediated through an increase in proatherogenic lipid concentrations. Copyright (C) The Interleukin 1 Genetics Consortium. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC-BY-NC-ND.
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- Iversen, Anne Kristine Servais, et al.
(författare)
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A simple clinical assessment is superior to systematic triage in prediction of mortality in the emergency department
- 2019
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Ingår i: Emergency Medicine Journal. - : BMJ. - 1472-0213 .- 1472-0205. ; 36:2, s. 66-71
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective To compare the Danish Emergency Process Triage (DEPT) with a quick clinical assessment (Eyeball triage) as predictors of short-term mortality in patients in the emergency department (ED).Methods The investigation was designed as a prospective cohort study conducted at North Zealand University Hospital. All patient visits to the ED from September 2013 to December 2013 except minor injuries were included. DEPT was performed by nurses. Eyeball triage was a quick non-systematic clinical assessment based on patient appearance performed by phlebotomists. Both triage methods categorised patients as green (not urgent), yellow, orange or red (most urgent). Primary analysis assessed the association between triage level and 30-day mortality for each triage method. Secondary analyses investigated the relation between triage level and 48-hour mortality as well as the agreement between DEPT and Eyeball triage.Results A total of 6383 patient visits were included. DEPT was performed for 6290 (98.5%) and Eyeball triage for 6382 (~100%) of the patient visits. Only patients with both triage assessments were included. The hazard ratio (HR) for 48-hour mortality for patients categorised as yellow was 0.9 (95% CI 0.4 to 1.9) for DEPT compared with 4.2 (95% CI 1.2 to 14.6) for Eyeball triage (green is reference). For orange the HR for DEPT was 2.2 (95% CI 1.1 to 4.4) and 17.1 (95% CI 5.1 to 57.1) for Eyeball triage. For red the HR was 30.9 (95% CI 12.3 to 77.4) for DEPT and 128.7 (95% CI 37.9 to 436.8) for Eyeball triage. For 30-day mortality the HR for patients categorised as yellow was 1.7 (95% CI 1.2 to 2.4) for DEPT and 2.4 (95% CI 1.6 to 3.5) for Eyeball triage. For orange the HR was 2.6 (95% CI 1.8 to 3.6) for DEPT and 7.6 (95% CI 5.1 to 11.2) for Eyeball triage, and for red the HR was 19.1 (95% CI 10.4 to 35.2) for DEPT and 27.1 (95% CI 16.9 to 43.5) for Eyeball triage. Agreement between the two systems was poor (kappa 0.05).Conclusion Agreement between formalised triage and clinical assessment is poor. A simple clinical assessment by phlebotomists is superior to a formalised triage system to predict short-term mortality in ED patients.
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