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1.
  • Hageman, S., et al. (författare)
  • SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 42:25, s. 2439-2454
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Aims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40-69 years in Europe. Methods and results We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65-0.68) to 0.81 (0.76-0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low- risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries. Conclusion SCORE2-a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations-enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.
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2.
  • Al-Delaimy, WK, et al. (författare)
  • Plasma carotenoids as biomarkers of intake of fruits and vegetables: ecological-level correlations in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)
  • 2005
  • Ingår i: European Journal of Clinical Nutrition. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-5640 .- 0954-3007. ; 59:12, s. 1397-1408
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objective: The aim of this study was to assess the ability of a single 24-h dietary recall (24HDR) and food questionnaires (FQ) to predict plasma carotenoid levels at the ecological level by assessing the relationship between mean plasma carotenoid levels and mean intake of fruit and vegetables measured by 24HDR and FQ across 16 European regions. Design: A random subsample of 3089 subjects was included, stratified by age and gender. They provided blood samples and dietary information between 1992 and 2000 as part of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Results: Using Spearman's correlation coefficients, the correlations between mean regional 24HDR fruit and vegetable variables and corresponding mean plasma carotenoid levels were generally higher than the correlations using FQ means. The highest correlation was between the 24HDR citrus fruit variable and beta-cryptoxanthin (r = 0.90). For 24HDR, total fruits and vegetables were highly correlated with lutein, zeaxanthin, and beta-cryptoxanthin (r = 0.83-0.87), while vegetables were more closely related with lutein (r = 0.69) and zeaxanthin (r = 0.68), and fruits correlated with zeaxanthin (r = 0.87) and beta-cryptoxanthin (r = 0.84). Root vegetables (r = 0.81) and total carrots (r = 0.71) were well correlated with alpha-carotene. In the multivariate models adjusting for age, body mass index, and season, and using observations of means stratified by sex and region, the association was generally higher for 24HDR compared to FQ. Conclusion: Mean regional intakes of fruits and vegetables in several European countries were closely correlated with corresponding mean plasma levels of individual carotenoids. Fruits and vegetables measured by 24HDR were generally better able to predict plasma carotenoids at the ecological level.
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3.
  • Deschasaux, M., et al. (författare)
  • Nutritional quality of food as represented by the FSAm-NPS nutrient profiling system underlying the Nutri-Score label and cancer risk in Europe: Results from the EPIC prospective cohort study
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Plos Medicine. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1549-1676 .- 1549-1277. ; 15:9
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Helping consumers make healthier food choices is a key issue for the prevention of cancer and other diseases. In many countries, political authorities are considering the implementation of a simplified labelling system to reflect the nutritional quality of food products. The Nutri-Score, a five-colour nutrition label, is derived from the Nutrient Profiling System of the British Food Standards Agency (modified version) (FSAm-NPS). How the consumption of foods with high/low FSAm-NPS relates to cancer risk has been studied in national/regional cohorts but has not been characterized in diverse European populations. This prospective analysis included 471,495 adults from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC, 1992-2014, median follow-up: 15.3 y), among whom there were 49,794 incident cancer cases (main locations: breast, n = 12,063; prostate, n = 6,745; colon-rectum, n = 5,806). Usual food intakes were assessed with standardized country-specific diet assessment methods. The FSAm-NPS was calculated for each food/beverage using their 100-g content in energy, sugar, saturated fatty acid, sodium, fibres, proteins, and fruits/vegetables/legumes/nuts. The FSAm-NPS scores of all food items usually consumed by a participant were averaged to obtain the individual FSAm-NPS Dietary Index (DI) scores. Multi-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were computed. A higher FSAm-NPS DI score, reflecting a lower nutritional quality of the food consumed, was associated with a higher risk of total cancer (HRQ5 versus (Q1) = 1.07; 95% CI 1.03-1.10, P-trend < 0.001). Absolute cancer rates in those with high and low (quintiles 5 and 1) FSAm-NPS DI scores were 81.4 and 69.5 cases/10,000 person-years, respectively. Higher FSAm-NPS DI scores were specifically associated with higher risks of cancers of the colon-rectum, upper aerodigestive tract and stomach, lung for men, and liver and postmenopausal breast for women (all P < 0.05). The main study limitation is that it was based on an observational cohort using self-reported dietary data obtained through a single baseline food frequency questionnaire; thus, exposure misclassification and residual confounding cannot be ruled out. In this large multinational European cohort, the consumption of food products with a higher FSAm-NPS score (lower nutritional quality) was associated with a higher risk of cancer. This supports the relevance of the FSAm-NPS as underlying nutrient profiling system for front-of-pack nutrition labels, as well as for other public health nutritional measures.
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4.
  • Li, K., et al. (författare)
  • An epidemiologic risk prediction model for ovarian cancer in Europe : the EPIC study
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: British Journal of Cancer. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0007-0920 .- 1532-1827. ; 112:7, s. 1257-1265
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Ovarian cancer has a high case-fatality ratio, largely due to late diagnosis. Epidemiologic risk prediction models could help identify women at increased risk who may benefit from targeted prevention measures, such as screening or chemopreventive agents. Methods: We built an ovarian cancer risk prediction model with epidemiologic risk factors from 202 206 women in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. Results: Older age at menopause, longer duration of hormone replacement therapy, and higher body mass index were included as increasing ovarian cancer risk, whereas unilateral ovariectomy, longer duration of oral contraceptive use, and higher number of full-term pregnancies were decreasing risk. The discriminatory power (overall concordance index) of this model, as examined with five-fold cross-validation, was 0.64 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.57, 0.70). The ratio of the expected to observed number of ovarian cancer cases occurring in the first 5 years of follow-up was 0.90 (293 out of 324, 95% CI: 0.81-1.01), in general there was no evidence for miscalibration. Conclusion: Our ovarian cancer risk model containing only epidemiological data showed modest discriminatory power for a Western European population. Future studies should consider adding informative biomarkers to possibly improve the predictive ability of the model.
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5.
  • van Bakel, M. M. E., et al. (författare)
  • Dietary glycaemic index and glycaemic load in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition
  • 2009
  • Ingår i: European Journal of Clinical Nutrition. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-5640 .- 0954-3007. ; 63:4s, s. 188-205
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objectives: To describe dietary glycaemic index (GI) and glycaemic load (GL) values in the population participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study according to food groups, nutrients and lifestyle characteristics. Methods: Single 24-h dietary recalls (24-HDRs) from 33 566 subjects were used to calculate dietary GI and GL, and an ad hoc database was created as the main reference source. Mean GI and GL intakes were adjusted for age, total energy intake, height and weight, and were weighted by season and day of recall. Results: GI was the lowest in Spain and Germany, and highest in the Netherlands, United Kingdom and Denmark for both genders. In men, GL was the lowest in Spain and Germany and highest in Italy, whereas in women, it was the lowest in Spain and Greece and highest in the UK health-conscious cohort. Bread was the largest contributor to GL in all centres (15-45%), but it also showed the largest inter-individual variation. GL, but not GI, tended to be lower in the highest body mass index category in both genders. GI was positively correlated with starch and intakes of bread and potatoes, whereas it was correlated negatively with intakes of sugar, fruit and dairy products. GL was positively correlated with all carbohydrate components and intakes of cereals, whereas it was negatively correlated with fat and alcohol and with intakes of wine, with large variations across countries. Conclusions: GI means varied modestly across countries and genders, whereas GL means varied more, but it may possibly act as a surrogate of carbohydrate intake. European Journal of Clinical Nutrition (2009) 63, S188-S205; doi: 10.1038/ejcn.2009.81
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6.
  • Manuguerra, M., et al. (författare)
  • Multi-factor dimensionality reduction applied to a large prospective investigation on gene-gene and gene-environment interactions
  • 2007
  • Ingår i: Carcinogenesis. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0143-3334 .- 1460-2180. ; 28:2, s. 414-422
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • It is becoming increasingly evident that single-locus effects cannot explain complex multifactorial human diseases like cancer. We applied the multi-factor dimensionality reduction (MDR) method to a large cohort study on gene-environment and gene-gene interactions. The study (case-control nested in the EPIC cohort) was established to investigate molecular changes and genetic susceptibility in relation to air pollution and environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) in non-smokers. We have analyzed 757 controls and 409 cases with bladder cancer (n = 124), lung cancer (n = 116) and myeloid leukemia (n = 169). Thirty-six gene variants (DNA repair and metabolic genes) and three environmental exposure variables (measures of air pollution and ETS at home and at work) were analyzed. Interactions were assessed by prediction error percentage and cross-validation consistency (CVC) frequency. For lung cancer, the best model was given by a significant gene-environment association between the base excision repair (BER) XRCC1-Arg399Gln polymorphism, the double-strand break repair (DSBR) BRCA2-Asn372His polymorphism and the exposure variable 'distance from heavy traffic road', an indirect and robust indicator of air pollution (mean prediction error of 26%, P < 0.001, mean CVC of 6.60, P = 0.02). For bladder cancer, we found a significant 4-loci association between the BER APE1-Asp148Glu polymorphism, the DSBR RAD52-3'-untranslated region (3'-UTR) polymorphism and the metabolic gene polymorphisms COMT-Val158Met and MTHFR-677C > T (mean prediction error of 22%, P < 0.001, mean CVC consistency of 7.40, P < 0.037). For leukemia, a 3-loci model including RAD52-2259C > T, MnSOD-Ala9Val and CYP1A1-Ile462Val had a minimum prediction error of 31% (P < 0.001) and a maximum CVC of 4.40 (P = 0.086). The MDR method seems promising, because it provides a limited number of statistically stable interactions; however, the biological interpretation remains to be understood.
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7.
  • Obón-Santacana, M., et al. (författare)
  • Dietary intake of acrylamide and endometrial cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: British Journal of Cancer. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 0007-0920 .- 1532-1827. ; 111:5, s. 987-997
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Three prospective studies have evaluated the association between dietary acrylamide intake and endometrial cancer (EC) risk with inconsistent results. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between acrylamide intake and EC risk: for overall EC, for type-I EC, and in never smokers and never users of oral contraceptives (OCs). Smoking is a source of acrylamide, and OC use is a protective factor for EC risk. METHODS: Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for the association between acrylamide intake and EC risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Acrylamide intake was estimated from the EU acrylamide monitoring database, which was matched with EPIC questionnaire-based food consumption data. Acrylamide intake was energy adjusted using the residual method. RESULTS: No associations were observed between acrylamide intake and overall EC (n = 1382) or type-I EC risk (n = 627). We observed increasing relative risks for type-I EC with increasing acrylamide intake among women who both never smoked and were non-users of OCs (HRQ5vsQ1: 1.97, 95% CI: 1.08-3.62; likelihood ratio test (LRT) P-value: 0.01, n = 203). CONCLUSIONS: Dietary intake of acrylamide was not associated with overall or type-I EC risk; however, positive associations with type I were observed in women who were both non-users of OCs and never smokers.
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8.
  • Obon-Santacana, M., et al. (författare)
  • Dietary intake of acrylamide and pancreatic cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Annals of Oncology. - : Elsevier BV. - 1569-8041 .- 0923-7534. ; 24:10, s. 2645-2651
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In 1994, acrylamide (AA) was classified as a probable human carcinogen by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. In 2002, AA was discovered at relatively high concentrations in some starchy, plant-based foods cooked at high temperatures. A prospective analysis was conducted to evaluate the association between the dietary intake of AA and ductal adenocarcinoma of the exocrine pancreatic cancer (PC) risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort using Cox regression modeling. EPIC includes > 500 000 men and women aged 35-75 at enrollment from 10 European countries. AA intake was estimated for each participant by combining questionnaire-based food consumption data with a harmonized AA database derived from the EU monitoring database of AA levels in foods, and evaluated in quintiles and continuously. After a mean follow-up of 11 years, 865 first incident adenocarcinomas of the exocrine pancreas were observed and included in the present analysis. At baseline, the mean dietary AA intake in EPIC was 26.22 mu g/day. No overall association was found between continuous or quintiles of dietary AA intake and PC risk in EPIC (HR:0.95, 95%CI:0.89-1.01 per 10 mu g/day). There was no effect measure modification by smoking status, sex, diabetes, alcohol intake or geographic region. However, there was an inverse association (HR: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.61-0.88 per 10 mu g/day) between AA intake and PC risk in obese persons as defined using the body mass index (BMI, >= 30 kg/m(2)), but not when body fatness was defined using waist and hip circumference or their ratio. Dietary intake of AA was not associated with an increased risk of PC in the EPIC cohort.
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9.
  • Al-Delaimy, WK, et al. (författare)
  • Plasma carotenoids as biomarkers of intake of fruits and vegetables: individual-level correlations in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)
  • 2005
  • Ingår i: European Journal of Clinical Nutrition. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-5640 .- 0954-3007. ; 59:12, s. 1387-1396
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objective: The aim in this study was to assess the association between individual plasma carotenoid levels (alpha-carotene, beta-carotene, lycopene, beta-cryptoxanthin, lutein, zeaxanthin) and fruit and vegetable intakes recorded by a calibrated food questionnaire (FQ) and 24- h dietary recall records (24HDR) in nine different European countries with diverse populations and widely varying intakes of plant foods. Design: A stratified random subsample of 3089 men and women from nine countries participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), who had provided blood samples and dietary and other lifestyle information between 1992 and 2000, were included. Results: beta-Cryptoxanthin was most strongly correlated with total fruits (FQ r = 0.52, 24HDR r = 0.39), lycopene with tomato and tomato products (FQ r = 0.38, 24HDR r = 0.25), and alpha-carotene with intake of root vegetables (r = 0.39) and of total carrots (r = 0.38) for FQ only. Based on diet measured by FQ and adjusting for possible confounding by body mass index (BMI), age, gender, smoking status, alcohol intake, and energy intake, the strongest predictors of individual plasma carotenoid levels were fruits (R-partial(2) = 17.2%) for beta-cryptoxanthin, total carrots (R-partial(2) = 13.4%) and root vegetables (R-partial(2) = 13.3%) for alpha-carotene, and tomato products (R-partial(2) = 13.8%) for lycopene. For 24HDR, the highest R-partial(2) was for fruits in relation to beta-cryptoxanthin (7.9%). Conclusions: Intakes of specific fruits and vegetables as measured by food questionnaires are good predictors of certain individual plasma carotenoid levels in our multicentre European study. At individual subject levels, FQ measurements of fruits, root vegetables and carrots, and tomato products are, respectively, good predictors of beta-cryptoxanthin, alpha-carotene, and lycopene in plasma.
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10.
  • Assi, N., et al. (författare)
  • A treelet transform analysis to relate nutrient patterns to the risk of hormonal receptor-defined breast cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Public Health Nutrition. - 1368-9800 .- 1475-2727. ; 19:2, s. 242-254
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Copyright © The Authors 2015 Objective: Pattern analysis has emerged as a tool to depict the role of multiple nutrients/foods in relation to health outcomes. The present study aimed at extracting nutrient patterns with respect to breast cancer (BC) aetiology. Design: Nutrient patterns were derived with treelet transform (TT) and related to BC risk. TT was applied to twenty-three log-transformed nutrient densities from dietary questionnaires. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals computed using Cox proportional hazards models quantified the association between quintiles of nutrient pattern scores and risk of overall BC, and by hormonal receptor and menopausal status. Principal component analysis was applied for comparison. Setting: The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Subjects: Women (n 334 850) from the EPIC study. Results: The first TT component (TC1) highlighted a pattern rich in nutrients found in animal foods loading on cholesterol, protein, retinol, vitamins B12 and D, while the second TT component (TC2) reflected a diet rich in β-carotene, riboflavin, thiamin, vitamins C and B6, fibre, Fe, Ca, K, Mg, P and folate. While TC1 was not associated with BC risk, TC2 was inversely associated with BC risk overall (HRQ5 v. Q1=0·89, 95 % CI 0·83, 0·95, P trend<0·01) and showed a significantly lower risk in oestrogen receptor-positive (HRQ5 v. Q1=0·89, 95 % CI 0·81, 0·98, P trend=0·02) and progesterone receptor-positive tumours (HRQ5 v. Q1=0·87, 95 % CI 0·77, 0·98, P trend<0·01). Conclusions: TT produces readily interpretable sparse components explaining similar amounts of variation as principal component analysis. Our results suggest that participants with a nutrient pattern high in micronutrients found in vegetables, fruits and cereals had a lower risk of BC.
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