| 1. |
- Vos, Theo, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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| 2. |
- Bellm, Eric C., et al.
(author)
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The Zwicky Transient Facility : System Overview, Performance, and First Results
- 2019
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In: Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific. - : IOP Publishing. - 0004-6280 .- 1538-3873. ; 131:995
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) is a new optical time-domain survey that uses the Palomar 48 inch Schmidt telescope. A custom-built wide-field camera provides a 47 deg(2) field of view and 8 s readout time, yielding more than an order of magnitude improvement in survey speed relative to its predecessor survey, the Palomar Transient Factory. We describe the design and implementation of the camera and observing system. The ZTF data system at the Infrared Processing and Analysis Center provides near-real-time reduction to identify moving and varying objects. We outline the analysis pipelines, data products, and associated archive. Finally, we present on-sky performance analysis and first scientific results from commissioning and the early survey. ZTF's public alert stream will serve as a useful precursor for that of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope.
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| 3. |
- Bolin, Bryce T., et al.
(author)
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Characterization of the Nucleus, Morphology, and Activity of Interstellar Comet 2I/Borisov by Optical and Near-infrared GROWTH, Apache Point, IRTF, ZTF, and Keck Observations
- 2020
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In: Astronomical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-6256 .- 1538-3881. ; 160:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present visible and near-infrared (NIR) photometric and spectroscopic observations of interstellar object (ISO) 2I/Borisov taken from 2019 September 10 to 2019 December 20 using the GROWTH, the Apache Point Observatory Astrophysical Research Consortium 3.5 m, and the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility 3.0 m combined with pre- and postdiscovery observations of 2I obtained by the Zwicky Transient Facility from 2019 March 17 to 2019 May 5. Comparison with imaging of distant solar system comets shows an object very similar to mildly active solar system comets with an outgassing rate of similar to 10(27)mol s(-1). The photometry, taken in filters spanning the visible and NIR range, shows a gradual brightening trend of similar to 0.03 mag day(-1)since 2019 September 10 UTC for a reddish object becoming neutral in the NIR. The light curve from recent and prediscovery data reveals a brightness trend suggesting the recent onset of significant H2O sublimation with the comet being active with super volatiles such as CO at heliocentric distances >6 au consistent with its extended morphology. Using the advanced capability to significantly reduce the scattered light from the coma enabled by high-resolution NIR images from Keck adaptive optics taken on 2019 October 4, we estimate a diameter for 2I's nucleus of less than or similar to 1.4 km. We use the size estimates of 1I/'Oumuamua and 2I/Borisov to roughly estimate the slope of the ISO size distribution, resulting in a slope of similar to 3.4 1.2, similar to solar system comets and bodies produced from collisional equilibrium.
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| 6. |
- Horesh, Assaf, et al.
(author)
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A Non-equipartition Shock Wave Traveling in a Dense Circumstellar Environment around SN 2020oi
- 2020
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In: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 903:2
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We report the discovery and panchromatic follow-up observations of the young Type Ic supernova (SN Ic) SN 2020oi in M100, a grand-design spiral galaxy at a mere distance of 14 Mpc. We followed up with observations at radio, X-ray, and optical wavelengths from only a few days to several months after explosion. The optical behavior of the supernova is similar to those of other normal SNe Ic. The event was not detected in the X-ray band but our radio observations revealed a bright mJy source (L-nu approximate to 1.2 x 10(27) erg s(-1) Hz(-1)). Given the relatively small number of stripped envelope SNe for which radio emission is detectable, we used this opportunity to perform a detailed analysis of the comprehensive radio data set we obtained. The radio-emitting electrons initially experience a phase of inverse Compton cooling, which leads to steepening of the spectral index of the radio emission. Our analysis of the cooling frequency points to a large deviation from equipartition at the level of epsilon(e)/epsilon(B) greater than or similar to 200, similar to a few other cases of stripped envelope SNe. Our modeling of the radio data suggests that the shock wave driven by the SN ejecta into the circumstellar matter (CSM) is moving at similar to 3 x 10(4) km s(-1). Assuming a constant mass loss from the stellar progenitor, we find that the mass-loss rate is (M)over dot approximate to 1.4 x 10(-4) M-circle dot yr(-1) for an assumed wind velocity of 1000 km s(-1). The temporal evolution of the radio emission suggests a radial CSM density structure steeper than the standard r(-2).
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| 7. |
- Louis, Rohan E., et al.
(author)
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Small-scale magnetic flux emergence in a sunspot light bridge
- 2015
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In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 584
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Context: Light bridges are convective intrusions in sunspots that often show enhanced chromospheric activity.Aims: We seek to determine the nature of flux emergence in a light bridge and the processes related to its evolution in the solar atmosphere.Methods: We analyse a sequence of high-resolution spectropolarimetric observations of a sunspot taken at the Swedish 1-m Solar Telescope. The data consist of spectral scans of the photospheric Fe I line pair at 630 nm and the chromospheric Ca II 854.2 nm line. Bisectors were used to construct Dopplergrams from the Fe I 630.15 nm measurements. We employed LTE and non-LTE inversions to derive maps of physical parameters in the photosphere and chromosphere, respectively.Results: We observe the onset of blueshifts of about 2 km s(-1) near the entrance of a granular light bridge on the limbward side of the spot. The blueshifts lie immediately next to a strongly redshifted patch that appeared six minutes earlier. Both patches can be seen for 25 min until the end of the sequence. The blueshifts coincide with an elongated emerging granule, while the redshifts appear at the end of the granule. In the photosphere, the development of the blueshifts is accompanied by a simultaneous increase in field strength of about 400 G. The field inclination increases by some 25 degrees, becoming nearly horizontal. At the position of the redshifts, the magnetic field is equally horizontal but of opposite polarity. An intense brightening is seen in the Ca II filtergrams over the blueshifts and redshifts, about 17 min after their detection in the photosphere. The brightening is due to emission in the blue wing of the Ca II 854.2 nm line, close to its knee. Non-LTE inversions reveal that this kind of asymmetric emission is caused by a temperature enhancement of similar to 700 K between -5.0 <= log tau <= -3.0 and a blueshift of 3 km s(-1) at log tau = - 2.3 that decreases to zero at log tau = - 6.0Conclusions: The photospheric blueshifts and redshifts observed in a granular light bridge seem to be caused by the emergence of a small-scale, flat Omega-loop with highly inclined footpoints of opposite polarity that brings new magnetic field to the surface. The gas motions detected in the two footpoints are reminiscent of a siphon flow. The rising loop is probably confined to the lower atmosphere by the overlying sunspot magnetic field and the interaction between the two flux systems may be responsible for temperature enhancements in the upper photosphere/lower chromosphere. This is the first time that magnetic flux is observed to emerge in the strongly magnetised environment of sunspots, pushed upwards by the convective flows of a granular light bridge.
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| 8. |
- Purdum, Josiah N., et al.
(author)
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Time-series and Phase-curve Photometry of the Episodically Active Asteroid (6478) Gault in a Quiescent State Using APO, GROWTH, P200, and ZTF
- 2021
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In: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8205 .- 2041-8213. ; 911:2
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We observed the episodically active asteroid (6478) Gault in 2020 with multiple telescopes in Asia and North America and found that it is no longer active after its recent outbursts at the end of 2018 and the start of 2019. The inactivity during this apparition allowed us to measure the absolute magnitude of Gault of H ( r ) = 14.63 +/- 0.02, G ( r ) = 0.21 +/- 0.02 from our secular phase-curve observations. In addition, we were able to constrain Gault's rotation period using time-series photometric lightcurves taken over 17 hr on multiple days in 2020 August, September, and October. The photometric lightcurves have a repeating less than or similar to 0.05 mag feature suggesting that (6478) Gault has a rotation period of similar to 2.5 hr and may have a semispherical or top-like shape, much like the near-Earth asteroids Ryugu and Bennu. The rotation period of similar to 2.5 hr is near the expected critical rotation period for an asteroid with the physical properties of (6478) Gault, suggesting that its activity observed over multiple epochs is due to surface mass shedding from its fast rotation spin-up by the Yarkovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack effect.
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| 9. |
- Rodriguez Déniz, Héctor, et al.
(author)
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A multilayered block network model to forecast large dynamic transportation graphs : An application to US air transport
- 2022
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In: Transportation Research Part C. - Oxford, United Kingdom : Elsevier. - 0968-090X .- 1879-2359. ; 137
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Dynamic transportation networks have been analyzed for years by means of static graph-based indicators in order to study the temporal evolution of relevant network components, and to reveal complex dependencies that would not be easily detected by a direct inspection of the data. This paper presents a state-of-the-art probabilistic latent network model to forecast multilayer dynamic graphs that are increasingly common in transportation and proposes a community-based extension to reduce the computational burden. Flexible time series analysis is obtained by modeling the probability of edges between vertices through latent Gaussian processes. The models and Bayesian inference are illustrated on a sample of 10-year data from four major airlines within the US air transportation system. Results show how the estimated latent parameters from the models are related to the airlines’ connectivity dynamics, and their ability to project the multilayer graph into the future for out-of-sample full network forecasts, while stochastic blockmodeling allows for the identification of relevant communities. Reliable network predictions would allow policy-makers to better understand the dynamics of the transport system, and help in their planning on e.g. route development, or the deployment of new regulations.
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| 10. |
- Rodriguez-Deniz, Hector, et al.
(author)
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Robust Real-Time Delay Predictions in a Network of High-Frequency Urban Buses
- 2022
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In: IEEE transactions on intelligent transportation systems (Print). - 1524-9050 .- 1558-0016. ; 23:9, s. 16304-16317
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Providing transport users and operators with accurate forecasts on travel times is challenging due to a highly stochastic traffic environment. Public transport users are particularly sensitive to unexpected waiting times, which negatively affect their perception on the system's reliability. In this paper we develop a robust model for real-time bus travel time prediction that departs from Gaussian assumptions by using Student-t errors. The proposed approach uses spatiotemporal characteristics from the route and previous bus trips to model short-term effects, and date/time variables and Gaussian processes for long-run forecasts. The model allows for flexible modeling of mean, variance and kurtosis spaces. We propose algorithms for Bayesian inference and for computing probabilistic forecast distributions. Experiments are performed using data from high-frequency buses in Stockholm, Sweden. Results show that Student-t models outperform Gaussian ones in terms of log-posterior predictive power to forecast bus delays at specific stops, which reveals the importance of accounting for predictive uncertainty in model selection. Estimated Student-t regressions capture typical temporal variability between within-day hours and different weekdays. Strong spatiotemporal effects are detected for incoming buses from immediately previous stops, which is in line with many recently developed models. We finally show how Bayesian inference naturally allows for predictive uncertainty quantification, e.g. by returning the predictive probability that the delay of an incoming bus exceeds a given threshold.
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