| 1. |
- Cheung, William W. L., et al.
(author)
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Building confidence in projections of the responses of living marine resources to climate change
- 2016
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In: ICES Journal of Marine Science. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1054-3139 .- 1095-9289. ; 73:5, s. 1283-1296
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlights that climate change and ocean acidification are challenging the sustainable management of living marine resources (LMRs). Formal and systematic treatment of uncertainty in existing LMR projections, however, is lacking. We synthesize knowledge of how to address different sources of uncertainty by drawing from climate model intercomparison efforts. We suggest an ensemble of available models and projections, informed by observations, as a starting point to quantify uncertainties. Such an ensemble must be paired with analysis of the dominant uncertainties over different spatial scales, time horizons, and metrics. We use two examples: (i) global and regional projections of Sea Surface Temperature and (ii) projection of changes in potential catch of sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) in the 21st century, to illustrate this ensemble model approach to explore different types of uncertainties. Further effort should prioritize understanding dominant, undersampled dimensions of uncertainty, as well as the strategic collection of observations to quantify, and ultimately reduce, uncertainties. Our proposed framework will improve our understanding of future changes in LMR and the resulting risk of impacts to ecosystems and the societies under changing ocean conditions.
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| 2. |
- Quentin, Audrey G, et al.
(author)
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Non-structural carbohydrates in woody plants compared among laboratories.
- 2015
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In: Tree physiology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1758-4469 .- 0829-318X. ; 35:11, s. 1146-1165
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) in plant tissue are frequently quantified to make inferences about plant responses to environmental conditions. Laboratories publishing estimates of NSC of woody plants use many different methods to evaluate NSC. We asked whether NSC estimates in the recent literature could be quantitatively compared among studies. We also asked whether any differences among laboratories were related to the extraction and quantification methods used to determine starch and sugar concentrations. These questions were addressed by sending sub-samples collected from five woody plant tissues, which varied in NSC content and chemical composition, to 29 laboratories. Each laboratory analyzed the samples with their laboratory-specific protocols, based on recent publications, to determine concentrations of soluble sugars, starch and their sum, total NSC. Laboratory estimates differed substantially for all samples. For example, estimates for Eucalyptus globulus leaves (EGL) varied from 23 to 116 (mean = 56) mg g(-1) for soluble sugars, 6-533 (mean = 94) mg g(-1) for starch and 53-649 (mean = 153) mg g(-1) for total NSC. Mixed model analysis of variance showed that much of the variability among laboratories was unrelated to the categories we used for extraction and quantification methods (method category R(2) = 0.05-0.12 for soluble sugars, 0.10-0.33 for starch and 0.01-0.09 for total NSC). For EGL, the difference between the highest and lowest least squares means for categories in the mixed model analysis was 33 mg g(-1) for total NSC, compared with the range of laboratory estimates of 596 mg g(-1). Laboratories were reasonably consistent in their ranks of estimates among tissues for starch (r = 0.41-0.91), but less so for total NSC (r = 0.45-0.84) and soluble sugars (r = 0.11-0.83). Our results show that NSC estimates for woody plant tissues cannot be compared among laboratories. The relative changes in NSC between treatments measured within a laboratory may be comparable within and between laboratories, especially for starch. To obtain comparable NSC estimates, we suggest that users can either adopt the reference method given in this publication, or report estimates for a portion of samples using the reference method, and report estimates for a standard reference material. Researchers interested in NSC estimates should work to identify and adopt standard methods.
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| 3. |
- Ryan, Megan H., et al.
(author)
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Globular structures in roots accumulate phosphorus to extremely high concentrations following phosphorus addition
- 2019
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In: Plant, Cell and Environment. - : Wiley. - 0140-7791 .- 1365-3040. ; 42:6, s. 1987-2002
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Crops with improved uptake of fertilizer phosphorus (P) would reduce P losses and confer environmental benefits. We examined how P-sufficient 6-week-old soil-grown Trifolium subterraneum plants, and 2-week-old seedlings in solution culture, accumulated P in roots after inorganic P (Pi) addition. In contrast to our expectation that vacuoles would accumulate excess P, after 7 days, X-ray microanalysis showed that vacuolar [P] remained low (<12 mmol kg −1 ). However, in the plants after P addition, some cortex cells contained globular structures extraordinarily rich in P (often >3,000 mmol kg −1 ), potassium, magnesium, and sodium. Similar structures were evident in seedlings, both before and after P addition, with their [P] increasing threefold after P addition. Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy showed seedling roots accumulated Pi following P addition, and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) revealed large plastids. For seedlings, we demonstrated that roots differentially expressed genes after P addition using RNAseq mapped to the T. subterraneum reference genome assembly and transcriptome profiles. Among the most up-regulated genes after 4 hr was TSub_g9430.t1, which is similar to plastid envelope Pi transporters (PHT4;1, PHT4;4): expression of vacuolar Pi-transporter homologs did not change. We suggest that subcellular P accumulation in globular structures, which may include plastids, aids cytosolic Pi homeostasis under high-P availability.
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| 4. |
- Keskitalo, E. Carina H., et al.
(author)
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Preparing for and Responding to Disturbance : Examples from the Forest Sector in Sweden and Canada
- 2011
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In: Forests. - : MDPI AG. - 1999-4907 .- 1999-4907. ; 2:2, s. 505-524
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Coping or adaptation following large-scale disturbance may depend on the political system and its preparedness and policy development in relation to risks. Adaptive or foresight planning is necessary in order to account and plan for potential risks that may increase or take place concurrently with climate change. Forests constitute relevant examples of large-scale renewable resource systems that have been directly affected by recent environmental and social changes, and where different levels of management may influence each other. This article views disturbances in the forest sectors of Sweden and Canada, two large forest nations with comparable forestry experiences, in order to elucidate the preparedness and existing responses to multiple potential stresses. The article concludes that the two countries are exposed to stresses that indicate the importance of the governing and institutional system particularly with regard to multi-level systems including federal and EU levels. While economic change largely results in privatization of risk onto individual companies and their economic resources (in Canada coupled with a contestation of institutional systems and equity in these), storm and pest outbreaks in particular challenge institutional capacities at administrative levels, within the context provided by governance and tenure systems.
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| 5. |
- Abbott, Benjamin W., et al.
(author)
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Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment
- 2016
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In: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 11:3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
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| 6. |
- Callaghan, Terry, et al.
(author)
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Multi-Decadal Changes in Tundra Environments and Ecosystems : Synthesis of the International Polar Year-Back to the Future Project (IPY-BTF)
- 2011
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In: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 40:6, s. 705-716
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Understanding the responses of tundra systemsto global change has global implications. Most tundraregions lack sustained environmental monitoring and oneof the only ways to document multi-decadal change is toresample historic research sites. The International PolarYear (IPY) provided a unique opportunity for such researchthrough the Back to the Future (BTF) project (IPY project#512). This article synthesizes the results from 13 paperswithin this Ambio Special Issue. Abiotic changes includeglacial recession in the Altai Mountains, Russia; increasedsnow depth and hardness, permafrost warming, andincreased growing season length in sub-arctic Sweden;drying of ponds in Greenland; increased nutrient availabilityin Alaskan tundra ponds, and warming at mostlocations studied. Biotic changes ranged from relativelyminor plant community change at two sites in Greenland tomoderate change in the Yukon, and to dramatic increasesin shrub and tree density on Herschel Island, and in subarcticSweden. The population of geese tripled at one sitein northeast Greenland where biomass in non-grazed plotsdoubled. A model parameterized using results from a BTFstudy forecasts substantial declines in all snowbeds andincreases in shrub tundra on Niwot Ridge, Colorado overthe next century. In general, results support and provideimproved capacities for validating experimental manipulation,remote sensing, and modeling studies.
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| 7. |
- Ehnvall, B., et al.
(author)
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Topography and time shape mire morphometry and large-scale mire distribution patterns in the northern boreal landscape
- 2024
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In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Earth Surface. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 2169-9003 .- 2169-9011. ; 129:2
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Peatlands are major terrestrial soil carbon stores, and open mires in boreal landscapes hold a considerable fraction of the global peat carbon. Despite decades of study, large-scale spatiotemporal analyses of mire arrangement have been scarce, which has limited our ability to scale-up mire properties, such as carbon accumulation to the landscape level. Here, we use a land-uplift mire chronosequence in northern Sweden spanning 9,000 years to quantify controls on mire distribution patterns. Our objectives include assessing changes in the spatial arrangement of mires with land surface age, and understanding modifications by upland hydrotopography. Characterizing over 3,000 mires along a 30 km transect, we found that the time since land emergence from the sea was the dominant control over mire coverage, especially for the establishment of large mire complexes. Mires at the youngest end of the chronosequence were small with heterogenous morphometry (shape, slope, and catchment-to-mire areal ratios), while mires on the oldest surfaces were variable in size, but included larger mires with more complex shapes and smaller catchment-to-mire ratios. In general, complex topography fragmented mires by constraining the lateral expansion, resulting in a greater number of mires, but reduced total mire area regardless of landscape age. Mires in this study area occurred on slopes up to 4%, indicating a hydrological boundary to peatland expansion under local climatic conditions. The consistency in mire responses to spatiotemporal controls illustrates how temporal limitation in peat initiation and accumulation, and topographic constraints to mire expansion together have shaped present day mire distribution patterns.
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| 8. |
- Schelker, Jakob, et al.
(author)
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Nitrogen export from a boreal stream network following forest harvesting : seasonal nitrate removal and conservative export of organic forms
- 2016
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In: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4170 .- 1726-4189. ; 13:1, s. 1-12
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Clear-cutting is today the primary driver of large-scale forest disturbance in boreal regions of Fennoscandia. Among the major environmental concerns of this practice for surface waters is the increased mobilization of nutrients, such as dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) into streams. But while DIN loading to first-order streams following forest harvest has been previously described, the downstream fate and impact of these inputs is not well understood. We evaluated the downstream fate of DIN and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) inputs in a boreal landscape that has been altered by forest harvests over a 10-year period. The small first-order streams indicated substantial leaching of DIN, primarily as nitrate (NO3-) in response to harvests with NO3- concentrations increasing by similar to 15-fold. NO3- concentrations at two sampling stations further downstream in the network were strongly seasonal and increased significantly in response to harvesting at the mid-sized stream, but not at the larger stream. DIN removal efficiency, E-r, calculated as the percentage of "forestry derived" DIN that was retained within the stream network based on a mass-balance model was highest during the snowmelt season followed by the growing season, but declined continuously throughout the dormant season. In contrast, export of DON from the landscape indicated little removal and was essentially conservative. Overall, net removal of DIN between 2008 and 2011 accounted for similar to 65% of the total DIN mass exported from harvested patches distributed across the landscape. These results high-light the capacity of nitrogen-limited boreal stream networks to buffer DIN mobilization that arises from multiple clear-cuts within this landscape. Further, these findings shed light on the potential impact of anticipated measures to increase forest yields of boreal forests, such as increased fertilization and shorter forest rotations, which may increase the pressure on boreal surface waters in the future.
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| 9. |
- Schäffer, Andreas, et al.
(author)
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Conflicts of Interest in the Assessment of Chemicals, Waste, and Pollution
- 2023
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In: Environmental Science and Technology. - 0013-936X .- 1520-5851. ; 57:48
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Pollution by chemicals and waste impacts human and ecosystem health on regional, national, and global scales, resulting, together with climate change and biodiversity loss, in a triple planetary crisis. Consequently, in 2022, countries agreed to establish an intergovernmental science-policy panel (SPP) on chemicals, waste, and pollution prevention, complementary to the existing intergovernmental science-policy bodies on climate change and biodiversity. To ensure the SPP’s success, it is imperative to protect it from conflicts of interest (COI). Here, we (i) define and review the implications of COI, and its relevance for the management of chemicals, waste, and pollution; (ii) summarize established tactics to manufacture doubt in favor of vested interests, i.e., to counter scientific evidence and/or to promote misleading narratives favorable to financial interests; and (iii) illustrate these with selected examples. This analysis leads to a review of arguments for and against chemical industry representation in the SPP’s work. We further (iv) rebut an assertion voiced by some that the chemical industry should be directly involved in the panel’s work because it possesses data on chemicals essential for the panel’s activities. Finally, (v) we present steps that should be taken to prevent the detrimental impacts of COI in the work of the SPP. In particular, we propose to include an independent auditor’s role in the SPP to ensure that participation and processes follow clear COI rules. Among others, the auditor should evaluate the content of the assessments produced to ensure unbiased representation of information that underpins the SPP’s activities.
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