| 1. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 2. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 3. |
- Fuertes, Elaine, et al.
(författare)
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Leisure-time vigorous physical activity is associated with better lung function : the prospective ECRHS study
- 2018
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Ingår i: Thorax. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 0040-6376 .- 1468-3296. ; 73:4, s. 376-384
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: We assessed associations between physical activity and lung function, and its decline, in the prospective population-based European Community Respiratory Health Survey cohort. Methods: FEV1 and FVC were measured in 3912 participants at 27-57 years and 39-67 years (mean time between examinations= 11.1 years). Physical activity frequency and duration were assessed using questionnaires and used to identify active individuals (physical activity >= 2 times and >= 1 hour per week) at each examination. Adjusted mixed linear regression models assessed associations of regular physical activity with FEV1 and FVC. Results: Physical activity frequency and duration increased over the study period. In adjusted models, active individuals at the first examination had higher FEV1 (43.6 mL (95% CI 12.0 to 75.1)) and FVC (53.9 mL (95% CI 17.8 to 89.9)) at both examinations than their non-active counterparts. These associations appeared restricted to current smokers. In the whole population, FEV1 and FVC were higher among those who changed from inactive to active during the follow-up (38.0 mL (95% CI 15.8 to 60.3) and 54.2 mL (95% CI 25.1 to 83.3), respectively) and who were consistently active, compared with those consistently non-active. No associations were found for lung function decline. Conclusion: Leisure-time vigorous physical activity was associated with higher FEV1 and FVC over a 10-year period among current smokers, but not with FEV1 and FVC decline.
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| 4. |
- Fuertes, Elaine, et al.
(författare)
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Residential air pollution does not modify the positive association between physical activity and lung function in current smokers in the ECRHS study
- 2018
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Ingår i: Environment International. - : Elsevier. - 0160-4120 .- 1873-6750. ; 120, s. 364-372
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Very few studies have examined whether a long-term beneficial effect of physical activity on lung function can be influenced by living in polluted urban areas.OBJECTIVE: We assessed whether annual average residential concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters < 2.5 μm (PM2.5) and <10 μm (PM10) modify the effect of physical activity on lung function among never- (N = 2801) and current (N = 1719) smokers in the multi-center European Community Respiratory Health Survey.METHODS: Associations between repeated assessments (at 27-57 and 39-67 years) of being physically active (physical activity: ≥2 times and ≥1 h per week) and forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) were evaluated using adjusted mixed linear regression models. Models were conducted separately for never- and current smokers and stratified by residential long-term NO2, PM2.5 mass and PM10 mass concentrations (≤75th percentile (low/medium) versus >75th percentile (high)).RESULTS: Among current smokers, physical activity and lung function were positively associated regardless of air pollution levels. Among never-smokers, physical activity was associated with lung function in areas with low/medium NO2, PM2.5 mass and PM10 mass concentrations (e.g. mean difference in FVC between active and non-active subjects was 43.0 mL (13.6, 72.5), 49.5 mL (20.1, 78.8) and 49.7 mL (18.6, 80.7), respectively), but these associations were attenuated in high air pollution areas. Only the interaction term of physical activity and PM10 mass for FEV1 among never-smokers was significant (p-value = 0.03).CONCLUSIONS: Physical activity has beneficial effects on adult lung function in current smokers, irrespective of residential air pollution levels in Western Europe. Trends among never-smokers living in high air pollution areas are less clear.
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| 5. |
- Lønnebotn, Marianne, et al.
(författare)
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Body silhouettes as a tool to reflect obesity in the past
- 2018
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science. - 1932-6203. ; 13:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Life course data on obesity may enrich the quality of epidemiologic studies analysing health consequences of obesity. However, achieving such data may require substantial resources. We investigated the use of body silhouettes in adults as a tool to reflect obesity in the past. We used large population-based samples to analyse to what extent self-reported body silhouettes correlated with the previously measured (9-23 years) body mass index (BMI) from both measured (European Community Respiratory Health Survey, N = 3 041) and selfreported (Respiratory Health In Northern Europe study, N = 3 410) height and weight. We calculated Spearman correlation between BMI and body silhouettes and ROC-curve analyses for identifying obesity (BMI >= 30) at ages 30 and 45 years. Spearman correlations between measured BMI age 30 (+/- 2y) or 45 (+/- 2y) and body silhouettes in women and men were between 0.62-0.66 and correlations for self-reported BMI were between 0.58-0.70. The area under the curve for identification of obesity at age 30 using body silhouettes vs previously measured BMI at age 30 (+/- 2y) was 0.92 (95% CI 0.87, 0.97) and 0.85 (95% CI 0.75, 0.95) in women and men, respectively; for previously self-reported BMI, 0.92 (95% CI 0.88, 0.95) and 0.90 (95% CI 0.85, 0.96). Our study suggests that body silhouettes are a useful epidemiological tool, enabling retrospective differentiation of obesity and non-obesity in adult women and men.
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| 6. |
- Peralta, Gabriela P., et al.
(författare)
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Body mass index trajectories during adult life and lung function decline
- 2018
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Ingår i: European Respiratory Journal. - : European Respiratory Society. - 0903-1936 .- 1399-3003. ; 52
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Body mass index (BMI) has been associated with lung function. Whether distinct BMI trajectories during adult life affect lung function differently is unknown. We assessed associations of BMI trajectories from 34 to 54 years with lung function decline over the same period of time in the ECRHS cohort.BMI trajectories were developed using Group-Based Trajectory Modeling on data collected at least twice between ECRHS I and ECRHS III (n=9327). Associations of these trajectories with lung function decline were assessed using mixed linear regression models (adjusted for sex, age, age2, height, smoking status and baseline lung function) in a subgroup (n=3534) with lung function data at ECRHS I and III. As sex-specific analyses showed similar findings, males and females were combined.Four parallel trajectories were identified: ‘normal’, ‘overweight’, ‘obese’ and ‘morbidly obese’ (Fig. 1). Those with higher BMI trajectories had greater decline of FEV1 and FVC than those with ‘normal BMI’ trajectory (Fig. 2).Overweight and obese trajectories of BMI during adult life were associated with greater lung function decline in the ECRHS cohort.
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| 7. |
- Russell, Melissa, et al.
(författare)
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The association of vigorous physical activity with 10-year adult asthma incidence
- 2018
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Ingår i: European Respiratory Journal. - : EUROPEAN RESPIRATORY SOC JOURNALS LTD. - 0903-1936 .- 1399-3003. ; 52
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Introduction: Studies investigating the effect of physical activity on asthma incidence have often been limited to one sex, and given mixed results.Aim: To investigate the association of vigorous physical activity with asthma incidence in middle-aged, predominantly European adults.Methods: Participants from the European Community Respiratory Health Survey with no history of asthma were included (n=2532). The association between baseline vigorous physical active (>1 hour and >2 times per week) and (1) self-report of newly doctor diagnosed asthma and (2) time to first asthma attack, over the following 10 years, was analysed using mixed effects logistic regression and cox regression respectively. To reduce potential reverse causation, incident asthma cases in the 2 years after baseline were excluded. Associations were adjusted for baseline sex, age, smoking, BMI, occupation, heart disease and education.Results: At baseline the mean age was 43 years and 47% were female. There were 44 (1.7%) incident doctor diagnosed asthma cases and 38 (1.5%) new cases of asthma attack reported. There was evidence that being vigorously physically active at baseline was associated with an increased odds of newly doctor diagnosed asthma (odds ratio 1.93, 95% Confidence Interval 1.04, 3.57, p=0.036). There was no association with time to first asthma attack.Conclusion: The health benefits of physical activity are well documented. However, our data do not support the presupposition that vigorous physical activity would reduce asthma incidence. We observed an increased risk of report of doctor diagnosed asthma with vigorous physical activity in this general adult population, as has been observed with athletes.
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