| 1. |
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| 2. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 3. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(author)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 4. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(author)
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- 2020
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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| 5. |
- Ademuyiwa, Adesoji O., et al.
(author)
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Determinants of morbidity and mortality following emergency abdominal surgery in children in low-income and middle-income countries
- 2016
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In: BMJ Global Health. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2059-7908. ; 1:4
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Child health is a key priority on the global health agenda, yet the provision of essential and emergency surgery in children is patchy in resource-poor regions. This study was aimed to determine the mortality risk for emergency abdominal paediatric surgery in low-income countries globally.Methods: Multicentre, international, prospective, cohort study. Self-selected surgical units performing emergency abdominal surgery submitted prespecified data for consecutive children aged <16 years during a 2-week period between July and December 2014. The United Nation's Human Development Index (HDI) was used to stratify countries. The main outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality, analysed by multilevel logistic regression.Results: This study included 1409 patients from 253 centres in 43 countries; 282 children were under 2 years of age. Among them, 265 (18.8%) were from low-HDI, 450 (31.9%) from middle-HDI and 694 (49.3%) from high-HDI countries. The most common operations performed were appendectomy, small bowel resection, pyloromyotomy and correction of intussusception. After adjustment for patient and hospital risk factors, child mortality at 30 days was significantly higher in low-HDI (adjusted OR 7.14 (95% CI 2.52 to 20.23), p<0.001) and middle-HDI (4.42 (1.44 to 13.56), p=0.009) countries compared with high-HDI countries, translating to 40 excess deaths per 1000 procedures performed.Conclusions: Adjusted mortality in children following emergency abdominal surgery may be as high as 7 times greater in low-HDI and middle-HDI countries compared with high-HDI countries. Effective provision of emergency essential surgery should be a key priority for global child health agendas.
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| 7. |
- Afshin, Ashkan, et al.
(author)
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Health Effects of Overweight and Obesity in 195 Countries over 25 Years
- 2017
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In: New England Journal of Medicine. - : MASSACHUSETTS MEDICAL SOC. - 0028-4793 .- 1533-4406. ; 377:1, s. 13-27
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND Although the rising pandemic of obesity has received major attention in many countries, the effects of this attention on trends and the disease burden of obesity remain uncertain. METHODS We analyzed data from 68.5 million persons to assess the trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and adults between 1980 and 2015. Using the Global Burden of Disease study data and methods, we also quantified the burden of disease related to high body-mass index (BMI), according to age, sex, cause, and BMI in 195 countries between 1990 and 2015. RESULTS In 2015, a total of 107.7 million children and 603.7 million adults were obese. Since 1980, the prevalence of obesity has doubled in more than 70 countries and has continuously increased in most other countries. Although the prevalence of obesity among children has been lower than that among adults, the rate of increase in childhood obesity in many countries has been greater than the rate of increase in adult obesity. High BMI accounted for 4.0 million deaths globally, nearly 40% of which occurred in persons who were not obese. More than two thirds of deaths related to high BMI were due to cardiovascular disease. The disease burden related to high BMI has increased since 1990; however, the rate of this increase has been attenuated owing to decreases in underlying rates of death from cardiovascular disease. CONCLUSIONS The rapid increase in the prevalence and disease burden of elevated BMI highlights the need for continued focus on surveillance of BMI and identification, implementation, and evaluation of evidence-based interventions to address this problem.
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| 8. |
- Chown, Ryan, et al.
(author)
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PDRs4All: IV. An embarrassment of riches: Aromatic infrared bands in the Orion Bar
- 2024
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In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 685
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Context. Mid-infrared observations of photodissociation regions (PDRs) are dominated by strong emission features called aromatic infrared bands (AIBs). The most prominent AIBs are found at 3.3, 6.2, 7.7, 8.6, and 11.2 µm. The most sensitive, highest-resolution infrared spectral imaging data ever taken of the prototypical PDR, the Orion Bar, have been captured by JWST. These high-quality data allow for an unprecedentedly detailed view of AIBs. Aims. We provide an inventory of the AIBs found in the Orion Bar, along with mid-IR template spectra from five distinct regions in the Bar: the molecular PDR (i.e. the three H2 dissociation fronts), the atomic PDR, and the H II region. Methods. We used JWST NIRSpec IFU and MIRI MRS observations of the Orion Bar from the JWST Early Release Science Program, PDRs4All (ID: 1288). We extracted five template spectra to represent the morphology and environment of the Orion Bar PDR. We investigated and characterised the AIBs in these template spectra. We describe the variations among them here. Results. The superb sensitivity and the spectral and spatial resolution of these JWST observations reveal many details of the AIB emission and enable an improved characterization of their detailed profile shapes and sub-components. The Orion Bar spectra are dominated by the well-known AIBs at 3.3, 6.2, 7.7, 8.6, 11.2, and 12.7 µm with well-defined profiles. In addition, the spectra display a wealth of weaker features and sub-components. The widths of many AIBs show clear and systematic variations, being narrowest in the atomic PDR template, but showing a clear broadening in the H II region template while the broadest bands are found in the three dissociation front templates. In addition, the relative strengths of AIB (sub-)components vary among the template spectra as well. All AIB profiles are characteristic of class A sources as designated by Peeters (2022, A&A, 390, 1089), except for the 11.2 µm AIB profile deep in the molecular zone, which belongs to class B11.2. Furthermore, the observations show that the sub-components that contribute to the 5.75, 7.7, and 11.2 µm AIBs become much weaker in the PDR surface layers. We attribute this to the presence of small, more labile carriers in the deeper PDR layers that are photolysed away in the harsh radiation field near the surface. The 3.3/11.2 AIB intensity ratio decreases by about 40% between the dissociation fronts and the H II region, indicating a shift in the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) size distribution to larger PAHs in the PDR surface layers, also likely due to the effects of photochemistry. The observed broadening of the bands in the molecular PDR is consistent with an enhanced importance of smaller PAHs since smaller PAHs attain a higher internal excitation energy at a fixed photon energy. Conclusions. Spectral-imaging observations of the Orion Bar using JWST yield key insights into the photochemical evolution of PAHs, such as the evolution responsible for the shift of 11.2 µm AIB emission from class B11.2 in the molecular PDR to class A11.2 in the PDR surface layers. This photochemical evolution is driven by the increased importance of FUV processing in the PDR surface layers, resulting in a “weeding out” of the weakest links of the PAH family in these layers. For now, these JWST observations are consistent with a model in which the underlying PAH family is composed of a few species: the so-called ‘grandPAHs’.
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| 9. |
- De Putte, Dries Van, et al.
(author)
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PDRs4All VIII. Mid-infrared emission line inventory of the Orion Bar
- 2024
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In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 687
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Context . Mid-infrared emission features are important probes of the properties of ionized gas and hot or warm molecular gas, which are difficult to probe at other wavelengths. The Orion Bar photodissociation region (PDR) is a bright, nearby, and frequently studied target containing large amounts of gas under these conditions. Under the “PDRs4All” Early Release Science Program for JWST, a part of the Orion Bar was observed with MIRI integral field unit (IFU) spectroscopy, and these high-sensitivity IR spectroscopic images of very high angular resolution (0.2′′) provide a rich observational inventory of the mid-infrared (MIR) emission lines, while resolving the H II region, the ionization front, and multiple dissociation fronts. Aims . We list, identify, and measure the most prominent gas emission lines in the Orion Bar using the new MIRI IFU data. An initial analysis summarizes the physical conditions of the gas and demonstrates the potential of these new data and future IFU observations with JWST. Methods. The MIRI IFU mosaic spatially resolves the substructure of the PDR, its footprint cutting perpendicularly across the ionization front and three dissociation fronts. We performed an up-to-date data reduction, and extracted five spectra that represent the ionized, atomic, and molecular gas layers. We identified the observed lines through a comparison with theoretical line lists derived from atomic data and simulated PDR models. The identified species and transitions are summarized in the main table of this work, with measurements of the line intensities and central wavelengths. Results . We identified around 100 lines and report an additional 18 lines that remain unidentified. The majority consists of H I recombination lines arising from the ionized gas layer bordering the PDR. The H I line ratios are well matched by emissivity coefficients from H recombination theory, but deviate by up to 10% because of contamination by He I lines. We report the observed emission lines of various ionization stages of Ne, P, S, Cl, Ar, Fe, and Ni. We show how the Ne III/Ne II, S IV/S III, and Ar III/Ar II ratios trace the conditions in the ionized layer bordering the PDR, while Fe III/Fe II and Ni III/Ni II exhibit a different behavior, as there are significant contributions to Fe II and Ni II from the neutral PDR gas. We observe the pure-rotational H2 lines in the vibrational ground state from 0–0 S(1) to 0–0 S(8), and in the first vibrationally excited state from 1–1 S(5) to 1–1 S(9). We derive H2 excitation diagrams, and for the three observed dissociation fronts, the rotational excitation can be approximated with one thermal (∼700 K) component representative of an average gas temperature, and one nonthermal component (∼2700 K) probing the effect of UV pumping. We compare these results to an existing model of the Orion Bar PDR, and find that the predicted excitation matches the data qualitatively, while adjustments to the parameters of the PDR model are required to reproduce the intensity of the 0–0 S(6) to S(8) lines.
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| 10. |
- Habart, Emilie, et al.
(author)
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PDRs4All II. JWST’s NIR and MIR imaging view of the Orion Nebula
- 2024
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In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 685
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Context. The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) has captured the most detailed and sharpest infrared (IR) images ever taken of the inner region of the Orion Nebula, the nearest massive star formation region, and a prototypical highly irradiated dense photo-dissociation region (PDR). Aims. We investigate the fundamental interaction of far-ultraviolet (FUV) photons with molecular clouds. The transitions across the ionization front (IF), dissociation front (DF), and the molecular cloud are studied at high-angular resolution. These transitions are relevant to understanding the effects of radiative feedback from massive stars and the dominant physical and chemical processes that lead to the IR emission that JWST will detect in many Galactic and extragalactic environments. Methods. We utilized NIRCam and MIRI to obtain sub-arcsecond images over ∼150′′ and 42′′ in key gas phase lines (e.g., Pa α, Br α, [FeII] 1.64 µm, H2 1–0 S(1) 2.12 µm, 0–0 S(9) 4.69 µm), aromatic and aliphatic infrared bands (aromatic infrared bands at 3.3–3.4 µm, 7.7, and 11.3 µm), dust emission, and scattered light. Their emission are powerful tracers of the IF and DF, FUV radiation field and density distribution. Using NIRSpec observations the fractional contributions of lines, AIBs, and continuum emission to our NIRCam images were estimated. A very good agreement is found for the distribution and intensity of lines and AIBs between the NIRCam and NIRSpec observations. Results. Due to the proximity of the Orion Nebula and the unprecedented angular resolution of JWST, these data reveal that the molecular cloud borders are hyper structured at small angular scales of ∼0.1–1′′ (∼0.0002–0.002 pc or ∼40–400 au at 414 pc). A diverse set of features are observed such as ridges, waves, globules and photoevaporated protoplanetary disks. At the PDR atomic to molecular transition, several bright features are detected that are associated with the highly irradiated surroundings of the dense molecular condensations and embedded young star. Toward the Orion Bar PDR, a highly sculpted interface is detected with sharp edges and density increases near the IF and DF. This was predicted by previous modeling studies, but the fronts were unresolved in most tracers. The spatial distribution of the AIBs reveals that the PDR edge is steep and is followed by an extensive warm atomic layer up to the DF with multiple ridges. A complex, structured, and folded H0/H2 DF surface was traced by the H2 lines. This dataset was used to revisit the commonly adopted 2D PDR structure of the Orion Bar as our observations show that a 3D “terraced” geometry is required to explain the JWST observations. JWST provides us with a complete view of the PDR, all the way from the PDR edge to the substructured dense region, and this allowed us to determine, in detail, where the emission of the atomic and molecular lines, aromatic bands, and dust originate. Conclusions. This study offers an unprecedented dataset to benchmark and transform PDR physico-chemical and dynamical models for the JWST era. A fundamental step forward in our understanding of the interaction of FUV photons with molecular clouds and the role of FUV irradiation along the star formation sequence is provided.
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