| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Sánchez Van Kammen, Mayte, et al.
(författare)
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Characteristics and Outcomes of Patients with Cerebral Venous Sinus Thrombosis in SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine-Induced Immune Thrombotic Thrombocytopenia
- 2021
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Ingår i: JAMA Neurology. - : American Medical Association. - 2168-6149 .- 2168-6157. ; 78:11, s. 1314-1323
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Importance: Thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) has been reported after vaccination with the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines ChAdOx1 nCov-19 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) and Ad26.COV2.S (Janssen/Johnson & Johnson).Objective: To describe the clinical characteristics and outcome of patients with cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination with and without TTS.Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used data from an international registry of consecutive patients with CVST within 28 days of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination included between March 29 and June 18, 2021, from 81 hospitals in 19 countries. For reference, data from patients with CVST between 2015 and 2018 were derived from an existing international registry. Clinical characteristics and mortality rate were described for adults with (1) CVST in the setting of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine-induced immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia, (2) CVST after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination not fulling criteria for TTS, and (3) CVST unrelated to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination.Exposures: Patients were classified as having TTS if they had new-onset thrombocytopenia without recent exposure to heparin, in accordance with the Brighton Collaboration interim criteria.Main Outcomes and Measures: Clinical characteristics and mortality rate.Results: Of 116 patients with postvaccination CVST, 78 (67.2%) had TTS, of whom 76 had been vaccinated with ChAdOx1 nCov-19; 38 (32.8%) had no indication of TTS. The control group included 207 patients with CVST before the COVID-19 pandemic. A total of 63 of 78 (81%), 30 of 38 (79%), and 145 of 207 (70.0%) patients, respectively, were female, and the mean (SD) age was 45 (14), 55 (20), and 42 (16) years, respectively. Concomitant thromboembolism occurred in 25 of 70 patients (36%) in the TTS group, 2 of 35 (6%) in the no TTS group, and 10 of 206 (4.9%) in the control group, and in-hospital mortality rates were 47% (36 of 76; 95% CI, 37-58), 5% (2 of 37; 95% CI, 1-18), and 3.9% (8 of 207; 95% CI, 2.0-7.4), respectively. The mortality rate was 61% (14 of 23) among patients in the TTS group diagnosed before the condition garnered attention in the scientific community and 42% (22 of 53) among patients diagnosed later.Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of patients with CVST, a distinct clinical profile and high mortality rate was observed in patients meeting criteria for TTS after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination..
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| 3. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Bonkhoff, Anna K, et al.
(författare)
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The relevance of rich club regions for functional outcome post-stroke is enhanced in women.
- 2023
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Ingår i: Human brain mapping. - : Wiley. - 1097-0193 .- 1065-9471. ; 44:4, s. 1579-1592
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study aimed to investigate the influence of stroke lesions in predefined highly interconnected (rich-club) brain regions on functional outcome post-stroke, determine their spatial specificity and explore the effects of biological sex on their relevance. We analyzed MRI data recorded at index stroke and ~3-months modified Rankin Scale (mRS) data from patients with acute ischemic stroke enrolled in the multisite MRI-GENIE study. Spatially normalized structural stroke lesions were parcellated into 108 atlas-defined bilateral (sub)cortical brain regions. Unfavorable outcome (mRS > 2) was modeled in a Bayesian logistic regression framework. Effects of individual brain regions were captured as two compound effects for (i) six bilateral rich club and (ii) all further non-rich club regions. In spatial specificity analyses, we randomized the split into "rich club" and "non-rich club" regions and compared the effect of the actual rich club regions to the distribution of effects from 1000 combinations of six random regions. In sex-specific analyses, we introduced an additional hierarchical level in our model structure to compare male and female-specific rich club effects. A total of 822 patients (age: 64.7[15.0], 39% women) were analyzed. Rich club regions had substantial relevance in explaining unfavorable functional outcome (mean of posterior distribution: 0.08, area under the curve: 0.8). In particular, the rich club-combination had a higher relevance than 98.4% of random constellations. Rich club regions were substantially more important in explaining long-term outcome in women than in men. All in all, lesions in rich club regions were associated with increased odds of unfavorable outcome. These effects were spatially specific and more pronounced in women.
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| 6. |
- Bretzner, Martin, et al.
(författare)
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Radiomics-Derived Brain Age Predicts Functional Outcome After Acute Ischemic Stroke.
- 2023
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Ingår i: Neurology. - 1526-632X .- 0028-3878. ; 100:8, s. e822-e833
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- While chronological age is one of the most influential determinants of poststroke outcomes, little is known of the impact of neuroimaging-derived biological "brain age." We hypothesized that radiomics analyses of T2-FLAIR images texture would provide brain age estimates and that advanced brain age of patients with stroke will be associated with cardiovascular risk factors and worse functional outcomes.We extracted radiomics from T2-FLAIR images acquired during acute stroke clinical evaluation. Brain age was determined from brain parenchyma radiomics using an ElasticNet linear regression model. Subsequently, relative brain age (RBA), which expresses brain age in comparison with chronological age-matched peers, was estimated. Finally, we built a linear regression model of RBA using clinical cardiovascular characteristics as inputs and a logistic regression model of favorable functional outcomes taking RBA as input.We reviewed 4,163 patients from a large multisite ischemic stroke cohort (mean age = 62.8 years, 42.0% female patients). T2-FLAIR radiomics predicted chronological ages (mean absolute error = 6.9 years, r = 0.81). After adjustment for covariates, RBA was higher and therefore described older-appearing brains in patients with hypertension, diabetes mellitus, a history of smoking, and a history of a prior stroke. In multivariate analyses, age, RBA, NIHSS, and a history of prior stroke were all significantly associated with functional outcome (respective adjusted odds ratios: 0.58, 0.76, 0.48, 0.55; all p-values < 0.001). Moreover, the negative effect of RBA on outcome was especially pronounced in minor strokes.T2-FLAIR radiomics can be used to predict brain age and derive RBA. Older-appearing brains, characterized by a higher RBA, reflect cardiovascular risk factor accumulation and are linked to worse outcomes after stroke.
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| 7. |
- Malik, Rainer, et al.
(författare)
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Low-frequency and common genetic variation in ischemic stroke : The METASTROKE collaboration
- 2016
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Ingår i: Neurology. - 1526-632X. ; 86:13, s. 26-1217
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: To investigate the influence of common and low-frequency genetic variants on the risk of ischemic stroke (all IS) and etiologic stroke subtypes.METHODS: We meta-analyzed 12 individual genome-wide association studies comprising 10,307 cases and 19,326 controls imputed to the 1000 Genomes (1 KG) phase I reference panel. We selected variants showing the highest degree of association (p < 1E-5) in the discovery phase for replication in Caucasian (13,435 cases and 29,269 controls) and South Asian (2,385 cases and 5,193 controls) samples followed by a transethnic meta-analysis. We further investigated the p value distribution for different bins of allele frequencies for all IS and stroke subtypes.RESULTS: We showed genome-wide significance for 4 loci: ABO for all IS, HDAC9 for large vessel disease (LVD), and both PITX2 and ZFHX3 for cardioembolic stroke (CE). We further refined the association peaks for ABO and PITX2. Analyzing different allele frequency bins, we showed significant enrichment in low-frequency variants (allele frequency <5%) for both LVD and small vessel disease, and an enrichment of higher frequency variants (allele frequency 10% and 30%) for CE (all p < 1E-5).CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the missing heritability in IS subtypes can in part be attributed to low-frequency and rare variants. Larger sample sizes are needed to identify the variants associated with all IS and stroke subtypes.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Traylor, Matthew, et al.
(författare)
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Genetic Variation at 16q24.2 is associated with small vessel stroke.
- 2017
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Ingår i: Annals of neurology. - : Wiley. - 1531-8249 .- 0364-5134. ; 81:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been successful at identifying associations with stroke and stroke subtypes, but have not yet identified any associations solely with small vessel stroke (SVS). SVS comprises a quarter of all ischaemic stroke and is a major manifestation of cerebral small vessel disease, the primary cause of vascular cognitive impairment. Studies across neurological traits have shown younger onset cases have an increased genetic burden. We leveraged this increased genetic burden by performing an age-at-onset informed GWAS meta-analysis, including a large younger onset SVS population, to identify novel associations with stroke.We used a three-stage age-at-onset informed GWAS to identify novel genetic variants associated with stroke. On identifying a novel locus associated with SVS, we assessed its influence on other small vessel disease phenotypes, as well as on mRNA expression of nearby genes, and on DNA methylation of nearby CpG sites in whole blood and in the fetal brain.We identified an association with SVS in 4,203 cases and 50,728 controls on chromosome 16q24.2 (OR(95% CI)=1.16(1.10-1.22); p=3.2x10(-9) ). The lead SNP (rs12445022) was also associated with cerebral white matter hyperintensities (OR(95% CI)=1.10(1.05-1.16); p=5.3x10(-5) ; N=3,670), but not intracerebral haemorrhage (OR(95% CI)=0.97(0.84-1.12); p=0.71; 1,545 cases, 1,481 controls). rs12445022 is associated with mRNA expression of ZCCHC14 in arterial tissues (p=9.4x10(-7) ), and DNA methylation at probe cg16596957 in whole blood (p=5.3x10(-6) ).16q24.2 is associated with SVS. Associations of the locus with expression of ZCCHC14 and DNA methylation suggest the locus acts through changes to regulatory elements. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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| 10. |
- Ay, Hakan, et al.
(författare)
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Pathogenic Ischemic Stroke Phenotypes in the NINDS-Stroke Genetics Network
- 2014
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Ingår i: Stroke. - 0039-2499. ; 45:12, s. 3589-3596
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: NINDS (National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke)-SiGN (Stroke Genetics Network) is an international consortium of ischemic stroke studies that aims to generate high-quality phenotype data to identify the genetic basis of pathogenic stroke subtypes. This analysis characterizes the etiopathogenetic basis of ischemic stroke and reliability of stroke classification in the consortium. METHODS: Fifty-two trained and certified adjudicators determined both phenotypic (abnormal test findings categorized in major pathogenic groups without weighting toward the most likely cause) and causative ischemic stroke subtypes in 16 954 subjects with imaging-confirmed ischemic stroke from 12 US studies and 11 studies from 8 European countries using the web-based Causative Classification of Stroke System. Classification reliability was assessed with blinded readjudication of 1509 randomly selected cases. RESULTS: The distribution of pathogenic categories varied by study, age, sex, and race (P<0.001 for each). Overall, only 40% to 54% of cases with a given major ischemic stroke pathogenesis (phenotypic subtype) were classified into the same final causative category with high confidence. There was good agreement for both causative (κ 0.72; 95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.75) and phenotypic classifications (κ 0.73; 95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.75). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that pathogenic subtypes can be determined with good reliability in studies that include investigators with different expertise and background, institutions with different stroke evaluation protocols and geographic location, and patient populations with different epidemiological characteristics. The discordance between phenotypic and causative stroke subtypes highlights the fact that the presence of an abnormality in a patient with stroke does not necessarily mean that it is the cause of stroke.
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