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Sökning: WFRF:(Tan Zeli)

  • Resultat 1-7 av 7
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1.
  • Golub, Malgorzata, et al. (författare)
  • A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide : the ISIMIP Lake Sector
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 15:11, s. 4597-4623
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.
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2.
  • Grant, Luke, et al. (författare)
  • Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - : Springer Nature. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 14:11, s. 849-854
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Lake ecosystems are jeopardized by the impacts of climate change on ice seasonality and water temperatures. Yet historical simulations have not been used to formally attribute changes in lake ice and temperature to anthropogenic drivers. In addition, future projections of these properties are limited to individual lakes or global simulations from single lake models. Here we uncover the human imprint on lakes worldwide using hindcasts and projections from five lake models. Reanalysed trends in lake temperature and ice cover in recent decades are extremely unlikely to be explained by pre-industrial climate variability alone. Ice-cover trends in reanalysis are consistent with lake model simulations under historical conditions, providing attribution of lake changes to anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, lake temperature, ice thickness and duration scale robustly with global mean air temperature across future climate scenarios (+0.9 °C °Cair–1, –0.033 m °Cair–1 and –9.7 d °Cair–1, respectively). These impacts would profoundly alter the functioning of lake ecosystems and the services they provide.
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3.
  • Guo, Mingyang, et al. (författare)
  • Intercomparison of Thermal Regime Algorithms in 1-D Lake Models
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Water resources research. - : AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION. - 0043-1397 .- 1944-7973. ; 57:6
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Lakes are an important component of the global weather and climate system, but the modeling of their thermal regimes has shown large uncertainties due to the highly diverse lake properties and model configurations. Here, we evaluate the algorithms of four key lake thermal processes including turbulent heat fluxes, wind-driven mixing, light extinction, and snow density, using a highly diverse lake data set provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) 2a lake sector. Algorithm codes are configured and run separately within the same parent model to rule out any interference from factors apart from the algorithms examined. Evaluations are based on both simulation accuracy and recalibration complexity for application to global lakes. For turbulent heat fluxes, the non-Monin-Obukhov similarity (MOS) based, more simplified algorithms perform better in predicting lake epilimnion temperatures and achieve high convergence in the values of the calibrated parameters. For wind-driven mixing, a two-algorithm strategy considering lake shape and season is suggested with the regular mixing algorithm used for spring and earlier summer and the mixing-enhanced algorithm for summer steady stratification and fall overturn periods. There are no evident differences in the simulated thermocline depths using different light extinction algorithms or the observation. Finally, for lake ice phenology, an optimal algorithm is decided for most northern lakes while the Arctic lakes require separate consideration. Our study provides highly practical guides for improving 1-D lake models and feasible parameterization strategies to better simulate global lake thermal regimes.
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4.
  • Guo, Mingyang, et al. (författare)
  • Validation and Sensitivity Analysis of a 1-D Lake Model Across Global Lakes
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres. - 2169-897X .- 2169-8996. ; 126:4
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Lakes have important influence on weather and climate from local to global scales. However, their prediction using numerical models is notoriously difficult because lakes are highly heterogeneous across the globe, but observations are sparse. Here, we assessed the performance of a 1‐D lake model in simulating the thermal structures of 58 lakes with diverse morphometric and geographic characteristics by following the phase 2a local lake protocol of the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2a). After calibration, the root‐mean‐square errors (RMSE) were below 2°C for 70% and 75% of the lakes for epilimnion and full‐profile temperature simulations, with an average of 1.71°C and 1.43°C, respectively. The model performance mainly depended on lake shape rather than location, supporting the possibility of grouping model parameters by lake shape for global applications. Furthermore, through machine‐learning based parameter sensitivity tests, we identified turbulent heat fluxes, wind‐driven mixing, and water transparency as the major processes controlling lake thermal and mixing regimes. Snow density was also important for modeling the ice phenology of high‐latitude lakes. The relative influence of the key processes and the corresponding parameters mainly depended on lake latitude and depth. Turbulent heat fluxes showed a decreasing importance in affecting epilimnion temperature with increasing latitude. Wind‐driven mixing was less influential to lake stratification for deeper lakes while the impact of light extinction, on the contrary, showed a positive correlation with lake depth. Our findings may guide improvements in 1‐D lake model parameterizations to achieve higher fidelity in simulating global lake thermal dynamics.
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5.
  • Treat, Claire C., et al. (författare)
  • Tundra landscape heterogeneity, not interannual variability, controls the decadal regional carbon balance in the Western Russian Arctic
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 24:11, s. 5188-5204
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Across the Arctic, the net ecosystem carbon (C) balance of tundra ecosystems is highly uncertain due to substantial temporal variability of C fluxes and to landscape heterogeneity. We modeled both carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) fluxes for the dominant land cover types in a ~100-km2 sub-Arctic tundra region in northeast European Russia for the period of 2006–2015 using process-based biogeochemical models. Modeled net annual CO2 fluxes ranged from −300 g C m−2 year−1 [net uptake] in a willow fen to 3 g C m−2 year−1 [net source] in dry lichen tundra. Modeled annual CH4 emissions ranged from −0.2 to 22.3 g C m−2 year−1 at a peat plateau site and a willow fen site, respectively. Interannual variability over the decade was relatively small (20%–25%) in comparison with variability among the land cover types (150%). Using high-resolution land cover classification, the region was a net sink of atmospheric CO2 across most land cover types but a net source of CH4 to the atmosphere due to high emissions from permafrost-free fens. Using a lower resolution for land cover classification resulted in a 20%–65% underestimation of regional CH4 flux relative to high-resolution classification and smaller (10%) overestimation of regional CO2 uptake due to the underestimation of wetland area by 60%. The relative fraction of uplands versus wetlands was key to determining the net regional C balance at this and other Arctic tundra sites because wetlands were hot spots for C cycling in Arctic tundra ecosystems.
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6.
  • Woolway, R. Iestyn, et al. (författare)
  • Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : NATURE RESEARCH. - 2041-1723 .- 2041-1723. ; 12:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • One of the most important physical characteristics driving lifecycle events in lakes is stratification. Already subtle variations in the timing of stratification onset and break-up (phenology) are known to have major ecological effects, mainly by determining the availability of light, nutrients, carbon and oxygen to organisms. Despite its ecological importance, historic and future global changes in stratification phenology are unknown. Here, we used a lake-climate model ensemble and long-term observational data, to investigate changes in lake stratification phenology across the Northern Hemisphere from 1901 to 2099. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, stratification will begin 22.0 +/- 7.0 days earlier and end 11.3 +/- 4.7 days later by the end of this century. It is very likely that this 33.3 +/- 11.7 day prolongation in stratification will accelerate lake deoxygenation with subsequent effects on nutrient mineralization and phosphorus release from lake sediments. Further misalignment of lifecycle events, with possible irreversible changes for lake ecosystems, is also likely.
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7.
  • Woolway, R. Iestyn, et al. (författare)
  • Winter inverse lake stratification under historic and future climate change
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Limnology and Oceanography Letters. - 2378-2242.
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Millions of lakes inversely stratify during winter. Seemingly subtle variations in the duration of winter stratification can have major ecological effects by, for example, altering the vertical distribution of oxygen and nutrients in lakes. Yet, the influence of climate change on winter stratification has been largely unexplored. To fill this knowledge gap, here we used a lake-climate model ensemble to investigate changes in winter stratification from 1901 to 2099 across 12,242 representative lakes situated throughout the Northern Hemisphere. By the end of the 21st century, winter stratification duration is projected to shorten by an average of 18.5–53.9 d under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6–8.5. Projected changes are faster in warmer geographical regions, in which 35–69% of lakes will no longer inversely stratify by 2070–2099 under RCPs 2.6–8.5. This shortening and loss of winter stratification will likely have numerous implications for lakes, including the misalignment of lifecycle events causing shifts in biodiversity.
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  • Resultat 1-7 av 7

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