| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Griswold, Max G., et al.
(författare)
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Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
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| 3. |
- Afshin, Ashkan, et al.
(författare)
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Health Effects of Overweight and Obesity in 195 Countries over 25 Years
- 2017
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Ingår i: New England Journal of Medicine. - : MASSACHUSETTS MEDICAL SOC. - 0028-4793 .- 1533-4406. ; 377:1, s. 13-27
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND Although the rising pandemic of obesity has received major attention in many countries, the effects of this attention on trends and the disease burden of obesity remain uncertain. METHODS We analyzed data from 68.5 million persons to assess the trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and adults between 1980 and 2015. Using the Global Burden of Disease study data and methods, we also quantified the burden of disease related to high body-mass index (BMI), according to age, sex, cause, and BMI in 195 countries between 1990 and 2015. RESULTS In 2015, a total of 107.7 million children and 603.7 million adults were obese. Since 1980, the prevalence of obesity has doubled in more than 70 countries and has continuously increased in most other countries. Although the prevalence of obesity among children has been lower than that among adults, the rate of increase in childhood obesity in many countries has been greater than the rate of increase in adult obesity. High BMI accounted for 4.0 million deaths globally, nearly 40% of which occurred in persons who were not obese. More than two thirds of deaths related to high BMI were due to cardiovascular disease. The disease burden related to high BMI has increased since 1990; however, the rate of this increase has been attenuated owing to decreases in underlying rates of death from cardiovascular disease. CONCLUSIONS The rapid increase in the prevalence and disease burden of elevated BMI highlights the need for continued focus on surveillance of BMI and identification, implementation, and evaluation of evidence-based interventions to address this problem.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Beconyte, G., et al.
(författare)
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Atlas of the Baltic Sea Region (ABSR)
- 2008
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Ingår i: 7th International Conference on Environmental Engineering, ICEE 2008. - : Vilnius Gediminas Technical University Publishing House Technika. - 9789955282563 ; , s. 1261-1268
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Baltic Sea Region (BSR) has long been important in many aspects. The BSR is the first region in the world that has adopted common regional goals fos sutainable development. It is estimated that there will be a considerable increase in the number of regional geographic information strategies being implemented through the world in the next ten years. It will naturally raise interest in synthetic geographic information on the BSR, as on one of the most developed regions in the world. Atlas of the Baltic Sea Region (ABSR) has been planned as a complex and consistent cartographic edition with a purpose to represent the region as a whole in the best way possible. The goal of the paper is to introduce with a different user's groups and their specific needs. General difficulties and strengths (high level SWOT analysis) are described. The contents of the Atlas are designed as a modular structure that allows combining units of the Atlas in the most convenient way. It has been sought for most comprehensive territorial generalization of the accumulated scientific knowledge. The structure and particular maps are planned in a way to integrate natural and socio-cultural aspects as well as history and geography of the region, to demonstrate internal territorial links and provide a macro-regional context. Description of implementation focuses on the breakdown of project activities and tasks that illustrates the entire framework of ABSR including time schedule. Resources (hardware, software, information, knowledge) and responsibilities of team members are assigned to each task. Modern approach to design and management of the informational system for the Atlas and modern cartographic technologies were chosen to assure efficiency of works.
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| 6. |
- Couldry, N., et al.
(författare)
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Media, communication and the struggle for social progress
- 2018
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Ingår i: Global Media and Communication. - : Sage Publications. - 1742-7665 .- 1742-7673. ; 14:2, s. 173-191
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This article discusses the role of media and communications in contributing to social progress, as elaborated in a landmark international project – the International Panel on Social Progress. First, it analyses how media and digital platforms have contributed to global inequality by examining media access and infrastructure across world regions. Second, it looks at media governance and the different mechanisms of corporatized control over media platforms, algorithms and content. Third, the article examines how the democratization of media is a key element in the struggle for social justice. It argues that effective media access – in terms of distribution of media resources, even relations between spaces of connection and the design and operation of spaces that foster dialogue, free speech and respectful cultural exchange – is a core component of social progress.
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| 7. |
- Efimenko, Evgeni, et al.
(författare)
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Analysis of xbx genes in C-elegans
- 2005
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Ingår i: Development. - : The Company of Biologists. - 0950-1991 .- 1477-9129. ; 132:8, s. 1923-1934
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Cilia and flagella are widespread eukaryotic subcellular components that are conserved from green algae to mammals. In different organisms they function in cell motility, movement of extracellular fluids and sensory reception. While the function and structural description of cilia and flagella are well established, there are many questions that remain unanswered. In particular, very little is known about the developmental mechanisms by which cilia are generated and shaped and how their components are assembled into functional machineries. To find genes involved in cilia development we used as a search tool a promoter motif, the X-box, which participates in the regulation of certain ciliary genes in the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans. By using a genome search approach for X-box promoter motif-containing genes (xbx genes) we identified a list of about 750 xbx genes (candidates). This list comprises some already known ciliary genes as well as new genes, many of which we hypothesize to be important for cilium structure and function. We derived a C elegans X-box consensus sequence by in vivo expression analysis. We found that xbx gene expression patterns were dependent on particular X-box nucleotide compositions and the distance from the respective gene start. We propose a model where DAF-19, the RFX-type transcription factor binding to the X-box, is responsible for the development of a ciliary module in C elegans, which includes genes for cilium structure, transport machinery, receptors and other factors.
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| 8. |
- Jørgensen, Bo Barker, et al.
(författare)
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Sub-seafloor biogeochemical processes and microbial life in the Baltic Sea
- 2020
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Ingår i: Environmental Microbiology. - : Society for Applied Microbiology. - 1462-2912 .- 1462-2920. ; 22:5, s. 1688-1706
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The post-glacial Baltic Sea has experienced extreme changes that are archived today in the deep sediments. IODP Expedition 347 retrieved cores down to 100 m depth and studied the climate history and the deep biosphere. We here review the biogeochemical and microbiological highlights and integrate these with other studies from the Baltic seabed. Cell numbers, endospore abundance and organic matter mineralization rates are extremely high. A 100-fold drop in cell numbers with depth results from a small difference between growth and mortality in the ageing sediment. Evidence for growth derives from a D:L amino acid racemization model, while evidence for mortality derives from the abundance and potential activity of lytic viruses. The deep communities assemble at the bottom of the bioturbated zone from the founding surface community by selection of organisms suited for life under deep sediment conditions. The mean catabolic per-cell rate of microorganisms drops steeply with depth to a life in slow-motion, typical for the deep biosphere. The subsurface life under extreme energy limitation is facilitated by exploitation of recalcitrant substrates, by biochemical protection of nucleic acids and proteins, and by repair mechanisms for random mismatches in DNA or damaged amino acids in proteins. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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| 9. |
- Kotthoff, U., et al.
(författare)
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Reconstructing Holocene temperature and salinity variations in the western Baltic Sea region: a multi-proxy comparison from the Little Belt (IODP Expedition 347, Site M0059)
- 2017
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Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4170 .- 1726-4189. ; 14, s. 5607-5632
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sediment records recovered from the Baltic Sea during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 347 provide a unique opportunity to study paleoenvironmental and climate change in central and northern Europe. Such studies contribute to a better understanding of how environmental parameters change in continental shelf seas and enclosed basins. Here we present a multi-proxy-based reconstruction of paleotemperature (both marine and terrestrial), paleosalinity, and paleoecosystem changes from the Little Belt (Site M0059) over the past ∼ 8000 years and evaluate the applicability of inorganic- and organic-based proxies in this particular setting. All salinity proxies (diatoms, aquatic palynomorphs, ostracods, diol index) show that lacustrine conditions occurred in the Little Belt until ∼ 7400 cal yr BP. A connection to the Kattegat at this time can thus be excluded, but a direct connection to the Baltic Proper may have existed. The transition to the brackish–marine conditions of the Littorina Sea stage (more saline and warmer) occurred within ∼ 200 years when the connection to the Kattegat became established after ∼ 7400 cal yr BP. The different salinity proxies used here generally show similar trends in relative changes in salinity, but often do not allow quantitative estimates of salinity. The reconstruction of water temperatures is associated with particularly large uncertainties and variations in absolute values by up to 8 °C for bottom waters and up to 16 °C for surface waters. Concerning the reconstruction of temperature using foraminiferal Mg / Ca ratios, contamination by authigenic coatings in the deeper intervals may have led to an overestimation of temperatures. Differences in results based on the lipid paleothermometers (long chain diol index and TEXL86) can partly be explained by the application of modern-day proxy calibrations to intervals that experienced significant changes in depositional settings: in the case of our study, the change from freshwater to marine conditions. Our study shows that particular caution has to be taken when applying and interpreting proxies in coastal environments and marginal seas, where water mass conditions can experience more rapid and larger changes than in open ocean settings. Approaches using a multitude of independent proxies may thus allow a more robust paleoenvironmental assessment.
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| 10. |
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