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| 2. |
- Heikkinen, Risto K., et al.
(författare)
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Methods and uncertainties in bioclimatic envelope modelling under climate change
- 2006
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Ingår i: Progress in Physical Geography. - : SAGE Publications. - 1477-0296. ; 30:6, s. 751-777
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Potential impacts of projected climate change on biodiversity are often assessed using single-species bioclimatic 'envelope' models. Such models are a special case of species distribution models in which the current geographical distribution of species is related to climatic variables so to enable projections of distributions under future climate change scenarios. This work reviews a number of critical methodological issues that may lead to uncertainty in predictions from bioclimatic modelling. Particular attention is paid to recent developments of bioclimatic modelling that address some of these issues as well as to the topics where more progress needs to be made. Developing and applying bioclimatic models in a informative way requires good understanding of a wide range of methodologies, including the choice of modelling technique, model validation, collinearity, autocorrelation, biased sampling of explanatory variables, scaling and impacts of non-climatic factors. A key challenge for future research is integrating factors such as land cover, direct CO2 effects, biotic interactions and dispersal mechanisms into species-climate models. We conclude that, although bioclimatic envelope models have a number of important advantages, they need to be applied only when users of models have a thorough understanding of their limitations and uncertainties.
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| 3. |
- Hickler, Thomas, et al.
(författare)
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An ecosystem model-based estimate of changes in water availability differs from water proxies that are commonly used in species distribution models
- 2009
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Ingår i: Global Ecology and Biogeography. - : Wiley. - 1466-8238 .- 1466-822X. ; 18:3, s. 304-313
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To assess whether the water availability measures commonly used in species distribution models might be misleading because they do not account for the hydrological effects of changes in vegetation structure and functioning. Europe. We compared different methods for estimating water availability in species distribution models with the soil water content predicted by a process-based ecosystem model. The latter also accounted for the hydrological effects of dynamic changes in vegetation structure and functioning, including potential physiological effects of increasing CO2. All proxies showed similar patterns of water availability across Europe for current climate, but when projected into the future, the changes in the simpler water availability measures showed no correlation with those projected by the more complex ecosystem model, even if CO2 effects were switched off. Results from species distribution modelling studies concerning future changes in species ranges and biodiversity should be interpreted with caution, and more process-based representations of the water balance of terrestrial ecosystems should be considered within these models.
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| 4. |
- Kattge, Jens, et al.
(författare)
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TRY plant trait database - enhanced coverage and open access
- 2020
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 26:1, s. 119-188
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Plant traits-the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants-determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait-based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits-almost complete coverage for 'plant growth form'. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait-environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives.
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| 5. |
- Kramer, Koen, et al.
(författare)
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Modelling exploration of the future of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) under climate change-Range, abundance, genetic diversity and adaptive response
- 2010
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Ingår i: Forest Ecology and Management. - : Elsevier BV. - 1872-7042 .- 0378-1127. ; 259:11, s. 2213-2222
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We explored impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of European beech by applying state of the art statistical and process-based models, and assessed possible climate change impacts on both adaptive capacity in the centre of its distribution and adaptive responses of functional traits at the leading and trailing edge of the current distribution. The species area models agree that beech has the potential to expand its northern edge and loose habitat at the southern edge of its distribution in a future climate. The change in local population size in the centre of the distribution of beech has a small effect on the genetic diversity of beech, which is projected to maintain its current population size or to increase in population size. Thus, an adaptive response of functional traits of small populations at the leading and trailing edges of the distribution is possible based on genetic diversity available in the local population, even within a period of 2-3 generations. We conclude that the adaptive responses of key functional traits should not be ignored in climate change impact assessment on beech. Adaptation to the local environment may lead to genetic and phenotypic structured populations over the species area already in few generations, depending on the forest management system applied. We recommend taking local differentiation into account in a future generation of process-based species area models. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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| 6. |
- Kühn, Ingolf, et al.
(författare)
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MACIS: Minimisation of and Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts on BiodiverSity
- 2008
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Ingår i: GAIA. - 0940-5550. ; 17:4, s. 393-395
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The recently finished EU funded project MACIS reviewed observed and projected climate change impacts on biodiversity. It assessed mitigation and adaptation options. It also reviewed and developed methods to assess future impacts of climate change on biodiversity including the identification of policy options to prevent and minimise these impacts.
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| 7. |
- Peterson, A. Townsend, et al.
(författare)
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ENM2020 : A free online course and set of resources on modeling species niches and distributions
- 2022
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Ingår i: Biodiversity Informatics. - : The University of Kansas. - 1546-9735. ; 17, s. 1-9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The field of distributional ecology has seen considerable recent attention, particularly surrounding the theory, protocols, and tools for Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) or Species Distribution Modeling (SDM). Such analyses have grown steadily over the past two decades-including a maturation of relevant theory and key concepts-but methodological consensus has yet to be reached. In response, and following an online course taught in Spanish in 2018, we designed a comprehensive English-language course covering much of the underlying theory and methods currently applied in this broad field. Here, we summarize that course, ENM2020, and provide links by which resources produced for it can be accessed into the future. ENM2020 lasted 43 weeks, with presentations from 52 instructors, who engaged with >2500 participants globally through >14,000 hours of viewing and >90,000 views of instructional video and question-and-answer sessions. Each major topic was introduced by an "Overview" talk, followed by more detailed lectures on subtopics. The hierarchical and modular format of the course permits updates, corrections, or alternative viewpoints, and generally facilitates revision and reuse, including the use of only the Overview lectures for introductory courses. All course materials are free and openly accessible (CC-BY license) to ensure these resources remain available to all interested in distributional ecology.
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| 8. |
- Rickebusch, Sophie, et al.
(författare)
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Incorporating the effects of changes in vegetation functioning and CO2 on water availability in plant habitat models
- 2008
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Ingår i: Biology letters. - : The Royal Society. - 1744-9561 .- 1744-957X. ; 4:5, s. 556-559
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The direct effects of CO2 level changes on plant water availability are usually ignored in plant habitat models. We compare traditional proxies for water availability with changes in soil water (fAWC) predicted by a process-based ecosystem model, which simulates changes in vegetation structure and functioning, including CO2 physiological effects. We modelled current and future habitats of 108 European tree species using ensemble forecasting, comprising six habitat models, two model evaluation methods and two climate change scenarios. The fAWC models' projections are generally more conservative. Potential habitats shrink significantly less for boreo-alpine and alpine species. Changes in vegetation functioning and CO2 on plant water availability should therefore be taken into account in plant habitat change projections.
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| 9. |
- Spake, Rebecca, et al.
(författare)
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Unpacking ecosystem service bundles : Towards predictive mapping of synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services
- 2017
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Ingår i: Global Environmental Change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0959-3780 .- 1872-9495. ; 47, s. 37-50
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Multiple ecosystem services (ES) can respond similarly to social and ecological factors to form bundles. Identifying key social-ecological variables and understanding how they co-vary to produce these consistent sets of ES may ultimately allow the prediction and modelling of ES bundles, and thus, help us understand critical synergies and trade-offs across landscapes. Such an understanding is essential for informing better management of multi-functional landscapes and minimising costly trade-offs. However, the relative importance of different social and biophysiCal drivers of ES bundles in different types of social-ecological systems remains unclear. As such, a bottom-up understanding of the determinants of ES bundles is a critical research gap in ES and sustainability science. Here, we evaluate the current methods used in ES bundle science and synthesize these into four steps that capture the plurality of methods used to examine predictors of ES bundles. We then apply these four steps to a cross-study comparison (North and South French Alps) of relationships between social-ecological variables and ES bundles, as it is widely advocated that cross-study comparisons are necessary for achieving a general understanding of predictors of ES associations. We use the results of this case study to assess the strengths and limitations of current approaches for understanding distributions of ES bundles. We conclude that inconsistency of spatial scale remains the primary barrier for understanding and predicting ES bundles. We suggest a hypothesis-driven approach is required to predict relationships between ES, and we outline the research required for such an understanding to emerge.
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| 10. |
- Trivino, Maria, et al.
(författare)
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Risk assessment for Iberian birds under global change
- 2013
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Ingår i: Biological Conservation. - : Elsevier BV. - 1873-2917 .- 0006-3207. ; 168, s. 192-200
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Conservation priority areas and programs are often established without consideration of future changes in species distributions. However, global change is expected to threaten the persistence of several species while offering opportunities for range expansion to others. In this study, building on previous work, we develop and implement an approach to classify bird species according to their degree of exposure and vulnerability to future climate and land-use change, including climatically driven changes in vegetation. To examine species exposure to environmental changes, we first fitted environmental envelope models and projected then into the future under scenarios of climate, land use and vegetation change. Then, we estimated species vulnerability by taking into account traits that are expected to render species vulnerable to environmental change while considering, simultaneously, the current IUCN conservation status of species. Our results show that bird species highly (and negatively) exposed to future environmental changes are currently less threatened and possess characteristics that render them less susceptible to local extinction than species that are less exposed. Our results reinforce the need to complement studies of global change impacts on biodiversity, typically based on assessments of species exposure to changes, with additional information related to the ability of species to persist under such changes. Nevertheless, we stress that while combining different sources of information is important, it is the comparison of outcomes from these different sources of information that enables development of alternative management strategies. Depending on the source of risk (e.g., exposure to global change versus vulnerability traits to multiple stressors) alternative conservation actions might be required. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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