| 1. |
- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(author)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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In: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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| 2. |
- Raghavan, Maanasa, et al.
(author)
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Genomic evidence for the Pleistocene and recent population history of Native Americans
- 2015
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In: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 349:6250
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Howand when the Americas were populated remains contentious. Using ancient and modern genome-wide data, we found that the ancestors of all present-day Native Americans, including Athabascans and Amerindians, entered the Americas as a single migration wave from Siberia no earlier than 23 thousand years ago (ka) and after no more than an 8000-year isolation period in Beringia. After their arrival to the Americas, ancestral Native Americans diversified into two basal genetic branches around 13 ka, one that is now dispersed across North and South America and the other restricted to North America. Subsequent gene flow resulted in some Native Americans sharing ancestry with present-day East Asians (including Siberians) and, more distantly, Australo-Melanesians. Putative "Paleoamerican" relict populations, including the historical Mexican Pericues and South American Fuego-Patagonians, are not directly related to modern Australo-Melanesians as suggested by the Paleoamerican Model.
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| 3. |
- Searle, Stephanie Y, et al.
(author)
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Leaf respiration and alternative oxidase in field-grown alpine grasses respond to natural changes in temperature and light
- 2011
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In: New Phytologist. - : Wiley. - 0028-646X .- 1469-8137. ; 189:4, s. 1027-1039
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- • We report the first investigation of changes in electron partitioning via the alternative respiratory pathway (AP) and alternative oxidase (AOX) protein abundance in field-grown plants and their role in seasonal acclimation of respiration. • We sampled two alpine grasses native to New Zealand, Chionochloa rubra and Chionochloa pallens, from field sites of different altitudes, over 1 yr and also intensively over a 2-wk period. • In both species, respiration acclimated to seasonal changes in temperature through changes in basal capacity (R₁₀) but not temperature sensitivity (E₀). In C. pallens, acclimation of respiration may be associated with a higher AOX : cytochrome c oxidase (COX) protein abundance ratio. Oxygen isotope discrimination (D), which reflects relative changes in AP electron partitioning, correlated positively with daily integrated photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) in both species over seasonal timescales. Respiratory parameters, the AOX : COX protein ratio and D were stable over a 2-wk period, during which significant temperature changes were experienced in the field. • We conclude that respiration in Chionochloa spp. acclimates strongly to seasonal, but not to short-term, temperature variation. Alternative oxidase appears to be involved in the plant response to both seasonal changes in temperature and daily changes in light, highlighting the complexity of the function of AOX in the field.
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