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- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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- Wagner, J., et al.
(författare)
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First 230? : GHz VLBI fringes on 3C 279 using the APEX Telescope (Research Note)
- 2015
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 581
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims. We report about a 230? GHz very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) fringe finder observation of blazar 3C 279 with the APEX telescope in Chile, the phased submillimeter array (SMA), and the SMT of the Arizona Radio Observatory (ARO). Methods. We installed VLBI equipment and measured the APEX station position to 1? cm accuracy (1σ). We then observed 3C 279 on 2012 May 7 in a 5? h 230? GHz VLBI track with baseline lengths of 2800? Mλ to 7200? Mλ and a finest fringe spacing of 28.6? μas. Results. Fringes were detected on all baselines with signal-to-noise ratios of 12 to 55 in 420? s. The correlated flux density on the longest baseline was ∼0.3? Jy beam-1, out of a total flux density of 19.8? Jy. Visibility data suggest an emission region ≤ 38? μas in size, and at least two components, possibly polarized. We find a lower limit of the brightness temperature of the inner jet region of about 1010? K. Lastly, we find an upper limit of 20% on the linear polarization fraction at a fringe spacing of ∼ 38? μas. Conclusions. With APEX the angular resolution of 230? GHz VLBI improves to 28.6? μas. This allows one to resolve the last-photon ring around the Galactic Center black hole event horizon, expected to be 40? μas in diameter, and probe radio jet launching at unprecedented resolution, down to a few gravitational radii in galaxies like M 87. To probe the structure in the inner parsecs of 3C 279 in detail, follow-up observations with APEX and five other mm-VLBI stations have been conducted (March 2013) and are being analyzed.
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- Carleo, Ilaria, et al.
(författare)
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The Multiplanet System TOI-421*
- 2020
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Ingår i: Astronomical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 1538-3881 .- 0004-6256. ; 160:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report the discovery of a warm Neptune and a hot sub-Neptune transiting TOI-421 (BD-14 1137, TIC 94986319), a bright (V = 9.9) G9 dwarf star in a visual binary system observed by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) space mission in Sectors 5 and 6. We performed ground-based follow-up observations-comprised of Las Cumbres Observatory Global Telescope transit photometry, NIRC2 adaptive optics imaging, and FIbre-fed Echelle Spectrograph, CORALIE, High Accuracy Radial velocity Planet Searcher, High Resolution echelle Spectrometer, and Planet Finder Spectrograph high-precision Doppler measurements-and confirmed the planetary nature of the 16 day transiting candidate announced by the TESS team. We discovered an additional radial velocity signal with a period of five days induced by the presence of a second planet in the system, which we also found to transit its host star. We found that the inner mini-Neptune, TOI-421 b, has an orbital period of P-b = 5.19672 +/- 0.00049 days, a mass of M-b = 7.17 +/- 0.66 M-circle plus, and a radius of R-b = R-circle plus, whereas the outer warm Neptune, TOI-421 c, has a period of P-c = 16.06819 +/- 0.00035 days, a mass of M-c = 16.42(-1.04)(+1.06)M(circle plus), a radius of R-c = 5.09(-0.15)(+0.16)R(circle plus), and a density of rho(c) = 0.685(-0.072)(+0.080) cm(-3). With its characteristics, the outer planet (rho(c) = 0.685(-0.0072)(+0.080) cm(-3)) is placed in the intriguing class of the super-puffy mini-Neptunes. TOI-421 b and TOI-421 c are found to be well-suited for atmospheric characterization. Our atmospheric simulations predict significant Ly alpha transit absorption, due to strong hydrogen escape in both planets, as well as the presence of detectable CH4 in the atmosphere of TOI-421 c if equilibrium chemistry is assumed.
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- Mallorquin, M., et al.
(författare)
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TOI-1801 b: A temperate mini-Neptune around a young M0.5 dwarf
- 2023
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 680
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report the discovery, mass, and radius determination of TOI-1801 b, a temperate mini-Neptune around a young M dwarf. TOI-1801 b was observed in TESS sectors 22 and 49, and the alert that this was a TESS planet candidate with a period of 21.3 days went out in April 2020. However, ground-based follow-up observations, including seeing-limited photometry in and outside transit together with precise radial velocity (RV) measurements with CARMENES and HIRES revealed that the true period of the planet is 10.6 days. These observations also allowed us to retrieve a mass of 5.74 +/- 1.46 M-circle plus, which together with a radius of 2.08 +/- 0.12 R-circle plus, means that TOI-1801 b is most probably composed of water and rock, with an upper limit of 2% by mass of H-2 in its atmosphere. The stellar rotation period of 16 days is readily detectable in our RV time series and in the ground-based photometry. We derived a likely age of 600-800 Myr for the parent star TOI-1801, which means that TOI-1801 b is the least massive young mini-Neptune with precise mass and radius determinations. Our results suggest that if TOI-1801 b had a larger atmosphere in the past, it must have been removed by some evolutionary mechanism on timescales shorter than 1 Gyr.
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- Turtelboom,, et al.
(författare)
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The TESS-Keck Survey. XI. Mass Measurements for Four Transiting Sub-Neptunes Orbiting K Dwarf TOI-1246
- 2022
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Ingår i: Astronomical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 1538-3881 .- 0004-6256. ; 163:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Multiplanet systems are valuable arenas for investigating exoplanet architectures and comparing planetary siblings. TOI-1246 is one such system, with a moderately bright K dwarf (V = 11.6, K = 9.9) and four transiting sub-Neptunes identified by TESS with orbital periods of 4.31, 5.90, 18.66, and 37.92 days. We collected 130 radial velocity observations with Keck/HIRES and TNG/HARPS-N to measure planet masses. We refit the 14 sectors of TESS photometry to refine planet radii (2.97 +/- 0.06 R (circle plus), 2.47 +/- 0.08 R (circle plus), 3.46 +/- 0.09 R (circle plus), and 3.72 +/- 0.16 R (circle plus)) and confirm the four planets. We find that TOI-1246 e is substantially more massive than the three inner planets (8.1 +/- 1.1 M (circle plus), 8.8 +/- 1.2 M (circle plus), 5.3 +/- 1.7 M (circle plus), and 14.8 +/- 2.3 M (circle plus)). The two outer planets, TOI-1246 d and TOI-1246 e, lie near to the 2:1 resonance (P (e)/P ( d ) = 2.03) and exhibit transit-timing variations. TOI-1246 is one of the brightest four-planet systems, making it amenable for continued observations. It is one of only five systems with measured masses and radii for all four transiting planets. The planet densities range from 0.70 +/- 0.24 to 3.21 +/- 0.44 g cm(-3), implying a range of bulk and atmospheric compositions. We also report a fifth planet candidate found in the RV data with a minimum mass of 25.6 +/- 3.6 M (circle plus). This planet candidate is exterior to TOI-1246 e, with a candidate period of 93.8 days, and we discuss the implications if it is confirmed to be planetary in nature.
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- Hodge, J. A., et al.
(författare)
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An ALMA Survey of Submillimeter Galaxies in the Extended Chandra Deep Field South: Source Catalog and Multiplicity
- 2013
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - 1538-4357 .- 0004-637X. ; 768:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present an Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) Cycle 0 survey of 126 submillimeter sources from the LABOCA ECDFS Submillimeter Survey (LESS). Our 870 mu m survey with ALMA (ALESS) has produced maps similar to 3x deeper and with a beam area similar to 200x smaller than the original LESS observations, doubling the current number of interferometrically-observed submillimeter sources. The high resolution of these maps allows us to resolve sources that were previously blended and accurately identify the origin of the submillimeter emission. We discuss the creation of the ALESS submillimeter galaxy (SMG) catalog, including the main sample of 99 SMGs and a supplementary sample of 32 SMGs. We find that at least 35% (possibly up to 50%) of the detected LABOCA sources have been resolved into multiple SMGs, and that the average number of SMGs per LESS source increases with LESS flux density. Using the (now precisely known) SMG positions, we empirically test the theoretical expectation for the uncertainty in the single-dish source positions. We also compare our catalog to the previously predicted radio/mid-infrared counterparts, finding that 45% of the ALESS SMGs were missed by this method. Our similar to 1 ''.6 resolution allows us to measure a size of similar to 9 kpc x 5 kpc for the rest-frame similar to 300 mu m emission region in one resolved SMG, implying a star formation rate surface density of 80 M-circle dot yr(-1) kpc(-2), and we constrain the emission regions in the remaining SMGs to be
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