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- Kriit, Hedi Katre, et al.
(författare)
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Using Distributed Lag Non-Linear Models to Estimate Exposure Lag-Response Associations between Long-Term Air Pollution Exposure and Incidence of Cardiovascular Disease
- 2022
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Ingår i: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. - : MDPI AG. - 1661-7827 .- 1660-4601. ; 19:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Long-term air pollution exposure increases the risk for cardiovascular disease, but little is known about the temporal relationships between exposure and health outcomes. This study aims to estimate the exposure-lag response between air pollution exposure and risk for ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke incidence by applying distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs). Annual mean concentrations of particles with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5 ) and black carbon (BC) were estimated for participants in five Swedish cohorts using dispersion models. Simultaneous estimates of exposure lags 1–10 years using DLNMs were compared with separate year specific (single lag) estimates and estimates for lag 1–5-and 6–10-years using moving average exposure. The DLNM estimated no exposure lag-response between PM2.5 total, BC, and IHD. However, for PM2.5 from local sources, a 20% risk increase per 1 µg/m3 for 1-year lag was estimated. A risk increase for stroke was suggested in relation to lags 2–4-year PM2.5 and BC, and also lags 8–9-years BC. No associations were shown in single lag models. Increased risk estimates for stroke in relation to lag 1–5-and 6–10-years BC moving averages were observed. Estimates generally supported a greater contribution to increased risk from exposure windows closer in time to incident IHD and incident stroke. © 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
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| 2. |
- Nilsson Sommar, Johan, et al.
(författare)
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Long-term exposure to particulate air pollution and black carbon in relation to natural and cause-specific mortality: a multicohort study in Sweden
- 2021
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Ingår i: Bmj Open. - : BMJ. - 2044-6055. ; 11:9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objectives To estimate concentration-response relationships for particulate matter (PM) and black carbon (BC) in relation to mortality in cohorts from three Swedish cities with comparatively low pollutant levels. Setting Cohorts from Gothenburg, Stockholm and Umea, Sweden. Design High-resolution dispersion models were used to estimate annual mean concentrations of PM with aerodynamic diameter <= 10 mu m (PM10) and <= 2.5 mu m (PM2.5), and BC, at individual addresses during each year of follow-up, 1990-2011. Moving averages were calculated for the time windows 1-5 years (lag1-5) and 6-10 years (lag6-10) preceding the outcome. Cause-specific mortality data were obtained from the national cause of death registry. Cohort-specific HRs were estimated using Cox regression models and then meta-analysed including a random effect of cohort. Participants During the study period, 7 340 cases of natural mortality, 2 755 cases of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and 817 cases of respiratory and lung cancer mortality were observed among in total 68 679 individuals and 689 813 person-years of follow-up. Results Both PM10 (range: 6.3-41.9 mu g/m(3)) and BC (range: 0.2-6.8 mu g/m(3)) were associated with natural mortality showing 17% (95% CI 6% to 31%) and 9% (95% CI 0% to 18%) increased risks per 10 mu g/m(3) and 1 mu g/m(3) of lag1-5 exposure, respectively. For PM2.5 (range: 4.0-22.4 mu g/m(3)), the estimated increase was 13% per 5 mu g/m(3), but less precise (95% CI -9% to 40%). Estimates for CVD mortality appeared higher for both PM10 and PM2.5. No association was observed with respiratory mortality. Conclusion The results support an effect of long-term air pollution on natural mortality and mortality in CVD with high relative risks also at low exposure levels. These findings are relevant for future decisions concerning air quality policies.
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