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- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(författare)
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World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Global Health. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-109X. ; 7:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 3. |
- Danesh, John, et al.
(författare)
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Plasma fibrinogen level and the risk of major cardiovascular diseases and nonvascular mortality: an individual participant meta-analysis
- 2005
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Ingår i: JAMA: The Journal of the American Medical Association. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 1538-3598 .- 0098-7484. ; 294:14, s. 1799-1809
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- CONTEXT: Plasma fibrinogen levels may be associated with the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. OBJECTIVE: To assess the relationships of fibrinogen levels with risk of major vascular and with risk of nonvascular outcomes based on individual participant data. DATA SOURCES: Relevant studies were identified by computer-assisted searches, hand searches of reference lists, and personal communication with relevant investigators. STUDY SELECTION: All identified prospective studies were included with information available on baseline fibrinogen levels and details of subsequent major vascular morbidity and/or cause-specific mortality during at least 1 year of follow-up. Studies were excluded if they recruited participants on the basis of having had a previous history of cardiovascular disease; participants with known preexisting CHD or stroke were excluded. DATA EXTRACTION: Individual records were provided on each of 154,211 participants in 31 prospective studies. During 1.38 million person-years of follow-up, there were 6944 first nonfatal myocardial infarctions or stroke events and 13,210 deaths. Cause-specific mortality was generally available. Analyses involved proportional hazards modeling with adjustment for confounding by known cardiovascular risk factors and for regression dilution bias. DATA SYNTHESIS: Within each age group considered (40-59, 60-69, and > or =70 years), there was an approximately log-linear association with usual fibrinogen level for the risk of any CHD, any stroke, other vascular (eg, non-CHD, nonstroke) mortality, and nonvascular mortality. There was no evidence of a threshold within the range of usual fibrinogen level studied at any age. The age- and sex- adjusted hazard ratio per 1-g/L increase in usual fibrinogen level for CHD was 2.42 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.24-2.60); stroke, 2.06 (95% CI, 1.83-2.33); other vascular mortality, 2.76 (95% CI, 2.28-3.35); and nonvascular mortality, 2.03 (95% CI, 1.90-2.18). The hazard ratios for CHD and stroke were reduced to about 1.8 after further adjustment for measured values of several established vascular risk factors. In a subset of 7011 participants with available C-reactive protein values, the findings for CHD were essentially unchanged following additional adjustment for C-reactive protein. The associations of fibrinogen level with CHD or stroke did not differ substantially according to sex, smoking, blood pressure, blood lipid levels, or several features of study design. CONCLUSIONS: In this large individual participant meta-analysis, moderately strong associations were found between usual plasma fibrinogen level and the risks of CHD, stroke, other vascular mortality, and nonvascular mortality in a wide range of circumstances in healthy middle-aged adults. Assessment of any causal relevance of elevated fibrinogen levels to disease requires additional research.
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| 5. |
- Rosengren, A, et al.
(författare)
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Coronary risk factors, diet and vitamins as possible explanatory factors of the Swedish north-south gradient in coronary disease: a comparison between two MONICA centres.
- 1999
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Ingår i: Journal of Internal Medicine. - : Wiley. - 0954-6820 .- 1365-2796. ; 246:6, s. 577-86
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether differences in serum lipids, diet, plasma vitamins or other risk factors explain the higher incidence of cardiovascular disease in the northern parts of Sweden, compared to Göteborg on the west coast. DESIGN: A comparison between the two Swedish MONICA populations in northern Sweden (NSW) and in Göteborg (GOT) in 1990. SETTING: Norrbotten and Västerbotten counties in the north of Sweden and the city of Göteborg on the west coast. SUBJECTS: In the north 1583 men and women aged 25-64 years were investigated, and in Göteborg 1574 men and women. Plasma vitamins were examined in a subsample of men aged 40-49 (n = 259). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Serum lipids, blood pressure, anthropometric measurements, smoking habits, physical activity, diet, education, and plasma vitamins. RESULTS: NSW men and women had mean serum total cholesterol of 6.30 (standard deviation 1.23) mmol L-1 and 6.12 (1. 33) mmol L-1, compared to 5.75 (1.14) mmol L-1 and 5.67 (1.24) mmol L-1 in GOT men and women (P = 0.0001). NSW men and women were shorter and had higher body mass index than in Göteborg. Cigarette smoking was slightly more prevalent amongst GOT men and women. Göteborg men and women more often had more than compulsory school education, compared to NSW men and women, whereas there were no differences in physical activity during leisure time. There were no differences in vegetable consumption, whereas fruit was consumed more frequently by NSW women compared to GOT women, with a higher intake of fibre and ascorbate. Consumption of wine and total alcohol consumption were higher in Göteborg, whereas NSW men and women drank significantly more coffee. In the subsample of men (aged 40-49) who had plasma vitamins measured, men in Göteborg had slightly higher mean retinol concentrations (P = 0.005) and lutein and zeaxanthine levels (P = 0.006 and 0.009, respectively) compared to northern men, but there were no differences with respect to alpha- or beta-carotene, ascorbic acid or lipid-adjusted vitamin E. NSW men had slightly higher plasma iron and magnesium concentrations (P = 0.005 and 0.001, respectively). CONCLUSION: The largest and most consistent differences between Göteborg and northern Sweden were found for serum cholesterol, probably reflecting differences in intake of saturated fat. The differences in serum cholesterol may explain a substantial part of the differences in coronary heart disease morbidity and mortality. We found no consistent differences concerning vegetable and fruit consumption. More alcohol was consumed in Göteborg. Differences in education and childhood conditions, as reflected in differences in height, may contribute to the north-south gradient with respect to CHD incidence and mortality.
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| 7. |
- Rosengren, A, et al.
(författare)
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Socioeconomic differences in health indices, social networks and mortality among Swedish men. A study of men born in 1933
- 1998
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Ingår i: Scandinavian journal of social medicine. - : SAGE Publications. - 0300-8037. ; 26:4, s. 272-280
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: In a previous survey we found large socioeconomic differences in mortality among urban Swedish men which remained unexplained after controlling for smoking and standard coronary risk factors. The present analysis was undertaken in order to investigate a broader set of possible explanatory factors in another cohort of Swedish men. Study population and methods: Occupation was coded into five occupational classes for 717 of 776 participant men from a random population sample of 1016 men who were born in 1933. All were living in Göteborg and were 50 years old at the baseline examination. After 12 years' follow-up, 68 of the 717 men had died (9.5%). Results: Low occupational class was associated with a higher prevalence of smoking at baseline, but no association was found with systolic blood pressure, body mass index, waist to hip ratio, serum triglycerides or serum cholesterol. Subjects from higher socioeconomic strata were taller, had higher maximum peak respiratory flow, lower plasma fibrinogen and lower body temperature. Low occupational class was associated with low social integration, low home activity levels, low levels of activity outside home and low social activity levels ( p 0.001 for all) and with low emotional support ( p0.018). There were also associations between low occupational class and poor self-perceived health, as well as with several cardiovascular symptoms. During 12 years' follow-up, there was a graded and inverse relationship between occupational class and mortality from all causes. The highest mortality was found among the men who could not be classified (23 per 1,000 person years) Of the men in the lowest occupational class, 12 per 1,000 died, compared to 3 per 1,000 in the highest class (relative risk 3.7 (1.4- 9.8)). After controlling for smoking, the relative risk decreased to 3.2 (1.2 - 8.6) and after further adjustment for emotional support, self-perceived health, activity level at home, and peak expiratory flow, the relative risk was still twofold but not significantly so (RR 2.1 (0.8-5.8)). Conclusion: We were able to confirm earlier results as to the wide mortality differentials in urban middle-aged men in Sweden. There were also large differences in several other factors, including constitutional factors, health variables, lifestyle and social support indices, which explained important parts of the social mortality gradient, the most prominent being smoking, respiratory function, social network factors and subjective health.
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