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- 2019
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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- de Nooijer, Wesley, et al.
(författare)
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Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations
- 2020
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Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 16:6, s. 2325-2341
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Palaeoclimate simulations improve our understanding of the climate, inform us about the performance of climate models in a different climate scenario, and help to identify robust features of the climate system. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), derived from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates Arctic (60-90 degrees N) annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increases of 3.7 to 11.6 degrees C compared to the pre-industrial period, with a multimodel mean (MMM) increase of 7.2 degrees C. The Arctic warming amplification ratio relative to global SAT anomalies in the ensemble ranges from 1.8 to 3.1 (MMM is 2.3). Sea ice extent anomalies range from -3.0 to -10.4 x 10(6) km(2), with a MMM anomaly of -5.6 x 10 6 km(2), which constitutes a decrease of 53 % compared to the pre-industrial period. The majority (11 out of 16) of models simulate summer seaice-free conditions (<= 1 x 10(6) km(2)) in their mPWP simulation. The ensemble tends to underestimate SAT in the Arctic when compared to available reconstructions, although the degree of underestimation varies strongly between the simulations. The simulations with the highest Arctic SAT anomalies tend to match the proxy dataset in its current form better. The ensemble shows some agreement with reconstructions of sea ice, particularly with regard to seasonal sea ice. Large uncertainties limit the confidence that can be placed in the findings and the compatibility of the different proxy datasets. We show that while reducing uncertainties in the reconstructions could decrease the SAT data-model discord substantially, further improvements are likely to be found in enhanced boundary conditions or model physics. Lastly, we compare the Arctic warming in the mPWP to projections of future Arctic warming and find that the PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates greater Arctic amplification than CMIP5 future climate simulations and an increase instead of a decrease in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength compared to pre-industrial period. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in equilibrium climate simulations, and that caution must be taken when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.
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- Charpentier Ljungqvist, Fredrik, et al.
(författare)
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Centennial-Scale Temperature Change in Last Millennium Simulations and Proxy-Based Reconstructions
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Climate. - 0894-8755 .- 1520-0442. ; 32:9, s. 2441-2482
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Systematic comparisons of proxy-based reconstructions and climate model simulations of past millennium temperature variability offer insights into climate sensitivity and feedback mechanisms, besides allowing model evaluation independently from the period covered by instrumental data. Such simulation-reconstruction comparisons can help to distinguish more skillful models from less skillful ones, which may subsequently help to develop more reliable future projections. This study evaluates the low-frequency simulation-reconstruction agreement within the past millennium through assessing the amplitude of temperature change between the Medieval Climate Anomaly (here, 950-1250 CE) and the Little Ice Age (here, 1450-1850 CE) in PMIP3 model simulations compared to proxy-based local and continental-scale reconstructions. The simulations consistently show a smaller temperature change than the reconstructions for most regions in the Northern Hemisphere, but not in the Southern Hemisphere, as well as a partly different spatial pattern. A cost function analysis assesses how well the various simulations agree with reconstructions. Disregarding spatial correlation, significant differences are seen in the agreement with the local temperature reconstructions between groups of models, but insignificant differences are noted when compared to continental-scale reconstructions. This result points toward a limited possibility to rank models by means of their low-frequency temperature variability alone. The systematically lower amplitude of simulated versus reconstructed temperature change indicates either too-small simulated internal variability or that the analyzed models lack some critical forcing or have missing or too-weak feedback mechanisms. We hypothesize that too-cold initial ocean conditions in the models-in combination with too-weak internal variability and slow feedbacks over longer time scales-could account for much of the simulation-reconstruction disagreement.
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| 6. |
- Han, Zixuan, et al.
(författare)
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The changes in ENSO-induced tropical Pacific precipitation variability in the past warm and cold climates from the EC-Earth simulations
- 2020
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Ingår i: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 55, s. 503-519
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most significant climate variability signals. Studying the changes in ENSO-induced precipitation variability (ENSO precipitation) in the past climate offers a possibility to a better understanding of how they may change under future climate conditions. This study uses simulations performed with the European community Earth-System Model (EC-Earth) to investigate the relative contributions of dynamic effect (the circulation anomalies together with the climatological specific humidity) and thermodynamic effect (the specific humidity anomalies together with the climatological circulation) on the changes in ENSO precipitation in the past warm and cold climates, represented by the Pliocene and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), respectively. The results show that the changes in ENSO precipitation are intensified (weakened) over the tropical western Pacific but weakened (intensified) over the tropical central Pacific in Pliocene (LGM) compared with the pre-industrial (PI) simulation. Based on the decomposed moisture budget equation, these changes in ENSO precipitation patterns are highly related to the dynamic effect. The mechanism can be understood as follows: the zonal gradient of the mean sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical Indo-Pacific is increased (reduced) during the Pliocene (LGM), leading to the strengthening (weakening) of Pacific Walker Circulation as well as a westward (eastward) shift. In the Pliocene, the westward shift of Walker Circulation results in an increased (decreased) ENSO-induced low-level vertical velocity variability in the tropical western Pacific (central Pacific), and, in turn, favoring convergent (divergent) moisture transport through a dynamic process, and then causing intensified (weakened) ENSO precipitation there. The opposite mechanism exists in LGM. These results suggest that changes in the zonal SST gradient over tropical Indo-Pacific under different climate conditions determine the changes in ENSO precipitation through a dynamic process.
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- Kageyama, Masa, et al.
(författare)
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The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6-Part 4 : Scientific objectives and experimental design of the PMIP4-CMIP6 Last Glacial Maximum experiments and PMIP4 sensitivity experiments
- 2017
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Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 10:11, s. 4035-4055
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 000 years ago) is one of the suite of paleoclimate simulations included in the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). It is an interval when insolation was similar to the present, but global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level was at or close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. The LGM has been a focus for the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) since its inception, and thus many of the problems that might be associated with simulating such a radically different climate are well documented. The LGM state provides an ideal case study for evaluating climate model performance because the changes in forcing and temperature between the LGM and pre-industrial are of the same order of magnitude as those projected for the end of the 21st century. Thus, the CMIP6 LGM experiment could provide additional information that can be used to constrain estimates of climate sensitivity. The design of the Tier 1 LGM experiment (lgm) includes an assessment of uncertainties in boundary conditions, in particular through the use of different reconstructions of the ice sheets and of the change in dust forcing. Additional (Tier 2) sensitivity experiments have been designed to quantify feedbacks associated with land-surface changes and aerosol loadings, and to isolate the role of individual forcings. Model analysis and evaluation will capitalize on the relative abundance of paleoenvironmental observations and quantitative climate reconstructions already available for the LGM.
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| 8. |
- Qian, Li-Bing, et al.
(författare)
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Transmission of electrons through the conical glass capillary with the grounded conducting outer surface
- 2017
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Ingår i: Wuli xuebao. - : Acta Physica Sinica, Chinese Physical Society and Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. - 1000-3290. ; 66:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The transmission of 1.5 keV-electrons through a conical glass capillary is reported. This study aims to understand the so-called guiding effect for the negatively charged particles (e.g. electrons). The guiding mechanism is understood quite well with positively charged particles in particular highly charged ions, but not clear with electrons, i. e., even the basic scheme mediated by the existence of negative charge patches to guide the electrons is still somewhat controversial.. The study of the charging-up dynamics causing the electrons transport inside the capillary will shed light on this issue. In order to perform this, a data acquisition system has been setup to follow the time evolution of the two-dimensional angular distribution of the transmitted electrons. The electrons are detected by the multi-channel plate (MCP) detector with a phosphor screen. The image from the phosphor screen is recorded by a charge-coupled device camera. The timing signals for the detected events are extracted from the back stack of the MCP detector and recorded by the data acquisition system, synchronized with the acquired images. The electron beam has a size of 0.5 mm x 0.5 mm and a divergence of less than 0.35.. The inner diameter of the straight part of the capillary is 1.2 mm and the exit diameter is 225 mu m. A small conducting aperture of 0.3 mm in diameter is placed at the entrance of the capillary. Two-dimensional angular distribution of the transmitted electrons through conical glass capillary and its time evolution are measured. The results show that the transmission rate decreases and reaches to a constant value for the completely discharged glass capillary with time going by. The centroid of the angular distribution moves to an asymptotic value while the width remains unchanged. These transmission characteristics are different from those indicated in our previous work (2016 Acta Phys: Si n: 65 204103). The difference originates from the different manipulations of the capillary outer surface. A conducting layer is coated on the outer surface of the capillary and grounded in this work. This isolates various discharge/charge channels and forms a new stable discharge channel. The transmission rate as a function of the tilt angle shows that the allowed transmission occurs at the tilt angle limited by the geometrical factors, i. e., the geometrical opening angle given by the aspect ratio as well as the beam divergence. The transmission characteristics suggest that most likely there are formed no negative patches to facilitate the electron transmission through the glass capillary at this selected beam energy. It is different from that of highly charged ions, where the formation of the charge patches prohibits the close collisions between the following ions and guides them out of the capillary.
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| 9. |
- Wan, Cheng-Liang, et al.
(författare)
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Dynamics of slow electrons transmitting through straight glass capillary and tapered glass capillary
- 2016
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Ingår i: Wuli xuebao. - : Acta Physica Sinica, Chinese Physical Society and Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. - 1000-3290. ; 65:20
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- It has been found that the transmission rate of the electrons through insulating capillaries as a function of time/incident charge is not the same as that of the ions. The question arises that by using the electrons, if the negative charge patches can be formed to facilitate the transmission of the following electrons, thereby substantiating that the so-called guiding effect works also for electrons. This study aims to observe the time evolutions of the transmission of electrons through a straight glass tube and a tapered glass capillary. This will reveal the details of how and (or) if the negative charge patches can be formed when the electrons transport through them. In this work, a set of MCP/phosphor two-dimensional detection system based on Labview platform is developed to obtain the time evolution of the angular distribution of the transmitted electrons. The pulsed electron beams are obtained to test our detection system. The time evolution of the angular profile of 1.5 keV electrons transmitting through the glass tube/capillary is observed. The transmitted electrons are observed on the detector for a very short time and disappear for a time and then appear again for both the glass tube and tapered glass capillary, leading to an oscillation. The positive charge patches are formed in the insulating glass tube and tapered glass capillary since the secondary electron emission coefficient for the incident energy is larger than 1. It is due to the fact that fast discharge of the deposited charge leads to the increase of the transmission rate, while the fast blocking of the incident electrons due to the deposited positive charge leads to the decrease of the transmission rate. The geometrical configuration of the taper glass capillary tends to make the secondary electrons deposited at the exit part to form the negative patches that facilitate the transmission of electrons. This suggests that if the stable transmission needs to be reached for producing the electron micro-beam by using tapered glass capillaries, the steps must be taken to have the proper grounding and shielding of the glass capillaries and tubes. Our results show a difference in transmission through the insulating capillary between electrons and highly charged ions.
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| 10. |
- Zhang, Ke, et al.
(författare)
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Revisiting the physical processes controlling the tropical atmospheric circulation changes during the Mid-Piacenzian Warm Period
- 2024
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Ingår i: Quaternary International. - 1040-6182 .- 1873-4553. ; 682, s. 46-59
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (MPWP; 3.0–3.3 Ma), a warm geological period about three million years ago, has been deemed as a good past analog for understanding the current and future climate change. Based on 12 climate model outputs from Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2), we investigate tropical atmospheric circulation (TAC) changes under the warm MPWP and associated underlying mechanisms by diagnosing both atmospheric static stability and diabatic processes. Our findings underscore the advantage of analyzing atmospheric diabatic processes in elucidating seasonal variations of TAC compared to static stability assessments. Specifically, by diagnosing alterations in diabatic processes, we achieve a quantitative understanding and explanation the following TAC changes (incl. Strength and edge) during the MPWP: the weakened (annual, DJF, JJA) Northern Hemisphere and (DJF) Southern Hemisphere Hadley circulation (HC), reduced (annual, DJF) Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) and enhanced (annual, JJA) Southern Hemisphere HC and (JJA) PWC, and westward shifted (annual, DJF, JJA) PWC. We further addressed that the increasing bulk subtropical static stability and/or decreasing vertical shear of subtropical zonal wind - two crucial control factors for changes in subtropical baroclinicity - may promote HC widening, and vice versa. Consequently, our study of spatial diabatic heating and cooling, corresponding to upward and downward motions within the TAC, respectively, provides a new perspective for understanding the processes controlling seasonal TAC changes in response to surface warming.
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