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- 2019
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 2. |
- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(författare)
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World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Global Health. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-109X. ; 7:10, s. E1332-E1345
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 3. |
- Fang, Keyan, et al.
(författare)
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An interdecadal climate dipole between Northeast Asia and Antarctica over the past five centuries
- 2019
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Ingår i: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 52:1/2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- © 2018 Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature Climate models emphasize the need to investigate inter-hemispheric climatic interactions. However, these models often underestimate the inter-hemispheric differences in climate change. With the wide application of reanalysis data since 1948, we identified a dipole pattern between the geopotential heights (GPHs) in Northeast Asia and Antarctica on the interdecadal scale in boreal summer. This Northeast Asia/Antarctica (NAA) dipole pattern is not conspicuous on the interannual scale, probably in that the interannual inter-hemispheric climate interaction is masked by strong interannual signals in the tropics associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Unfortunately, the instrumental records are not sufficiently long-lasting to detect the interdecadal variability of the NAA. We thus reconstructed GPHs since 1565, making using the proxy records mostly from tree rings in Northeast Asia and ice cores from Antarctica. The strength of the NAA is time-varying and it is most conspicuous in the eighteenth century and after the late twentieth century. The strength of the NAA matches well with the variations of the solar radiation and tends to increase in along with its enhancement. In boreal summer, enhanced heating associated with high solar radiation in the Northern Hemisphere drives more air masses from the South to the North. This inter-hemispheric interaction is particularly strong in East Asia as a result of the Asian summer monsoon. Northeast Asia and Antarctica appear to be the key regions responsible for inter-hemispheric interactions on the interdecadal scale in boreal summer since they are respectively located at the front and the end of this inter-hemispheric trajectory.
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| 4. |
- Fang, Keyan, et al.
(författare)
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Interdecadal modulation of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) on southwest China’s temperature over the past 250 years
- 2019
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Ingår i: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 52:3/4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- © 2018 Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature The temperature gradient between southwestern China and Indian Ocean is one key driver of the Indian Summer Monsoon, suggesting the necessity to understand temperature variability in southwestern China. Contrary to the general warming experienced in most of China, a few regions in southwestern China have undergone a cooling trend since the 1950s. To place this cooling trend in a historical context, this study develops an Abies fabri tree-ring width chronology in the Sichuan Basin, the most populated region in southwest China. The chronology spans from 1590 to 2012, with its reliable portion from 1758 to 2012, by far the longest in the Sichuan Basin. To better extract regional climate signals encoded in tree rings with strong local disturbances, we incorporate climate signals of nearby tree-ring chronologies to generate a large-scale tree-ring chronology (LSC). The LSC shows higher correlations with temperature near the sampling site on Mount Emei and sea surface temperatures of the northern Atlantic Ocean than chronologies developed using traditional methods. The highest correlations between the LSC and temperature are found from current February to July in the Sichuan Basin for the period 1901–1950 (r = 0.70), with a sharp decrease afterwards. Interdecadal variations of the LSC match well with Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation reconstructions, except for the late nineteenth century and after ~ 1980s. This study provides evidence that southwest China is a transitional region both affected by the interdecadal temperature variations of the northern Atlantic and Asian areas, although their influences weakened in recent possible due to enhanced human activities.
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| 5. |
- Li, Y. J., et al.
(författare)
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Growth decline of Pinus Massoniana in response to warming induced drought and increasing intrinsic water use efficiency in humid subtropical China
- 2019
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Ingår i: Dendrochronologia. - : Elsevier BV. - 1125-7865. ; 57:October
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Pinus Massoniana is the most widely distributed coniferous species in southern China and one of the most distributed species for plantation in China. It is not uncertain about the responses of tree growth to the combined effects of regional drying and the increase in the intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) due to increased atmospheric CO2. This study addressed this issue by comparing the tree growth patterns as represented by three tree-ring width chronologies with climate variables and three iWUE series derived from three tree-ring stable carbon isotope discrimination chronologies (Delta C-13) from Pinus Massoniana in Daiyun Mountain, central Fujian province of China. Among these chronologies, we reported the first tree-ring carbon isotope discrimination chronologies (Delta C-13) from Fuzhou area spanning last 210 years. It was found that tree radial growth is mainly limited by dry condition from May to October. Growth limitation by cold condition was only found in one high altitude site (780m) in early spring and late autumn. The tree-ring carbon discrimination was enhanced under conditions with low relative humidity and sufficient sunshine in late summer and autumn. In general, the iWUE showed a significantly increasing trend since the 1850s for all the sites in response to the increase in atmospheric CO2. However, the growth promotion of the increased iWUE on tree growth could not compensate the growth limitation caused by drought. Especially since the 1960s, a growth decline was found at two drought stressed sites at low altitudes. On the other hand, the increase in temperature of spring and autumn and iWUE has most likely enhanced tree growth at the high altitude site.
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| 6. |
- Zhao, Z., et al.
(författare)
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Responses of the radial growth of the endangered species Keteleeria fortunei to climate change in southeastern China
- 2019
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Ingår i: Trees-Structure and Function. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0931-1890. ; 33:4, s. 977-985
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Knowledge on the responses of endangered species to current global changes can highlight the necessity and importance of protecting these species. Tree-ring-based studies provide a longer term perspective than monitoring studies on the responses and adaptations of the growth of endangered species to climate change and forest disturbances. Therefore, this study conducted a tree-ring case study on Keteleeria fortunei, an endangered and endemic species in southern China, and presents the first tree-ring chronology of K. fortunei from 1850 to 2013 in the Fuzhou area, which is located west of the Taiwan Strait. K. fortunei trees tend to grow in moister locations in closed forests and are more sensitive to forest disturbances and sunshine than Pinus massoniana. Our study shows that missing rings are more frequent for K. fortunei than for P. massoniana in the same area, which agrees with previous findings that wedging and missing rings tend to occur in trees experiencing growth suppression in closed forests.
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