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Sökning: WFRF:(Ehrlén Johan) > (2010-2014) > (2013)

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1.
  • Sletvold, Nina, et al. (författare)
  • Climate warming alters effects of management on population viability of threatened species : results from a 30-year experimental study on a rare orchid
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 19:9, s. 2729-2738
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Climate change is expected to influence the viability of populations both directly and indirectly, via species interactions. The effects of large-scale climate change are also likely to interact with local habitat conditions. Management actions designed to preserve threatened species therefore need to adapt both to the prevailing climate and local conditions. Yet, few studies have separated the direct and indirect effects of climatic variables on the viability of local populations and discussed the implications for optimal management. We used 30years of demographic data to estimate the simultaneous effects of management practice and among-year variation in four climatic variables on individual survival, growth and fecundity in one coastal and one inland population of the perennial orchid Dactylorhiza lapponica in Norway. Current management, mowing, is expected to reduce competitive interactions. Statistical models of how climate and management practice influenced vital rates were incorporated into matrix population models to quantify effects on population growth rate. Effects of climate differed between mown and control plots in both populations. In particular, population growth rate increased more strongly with summer temperature in mown plots than in control plots. Population growth rate declined with spring temperature in the inland population, and with precipitation in the coastal population, and the decline was stronger in control plots in both populations. These results illustrate that both direct and indirect effects of climate change are important for population viability and that net effects depend both on local abiotic conditions and on biotic conditions in terms of management practice and intensity of competition. The results also show that effects of management practices influencing competitive interactions can strongly depend on climatic factors. We conclude that interactions between climate and management should be considered to reliably predict future population viability and optimize conservation actions.
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2.
  • Crone, Elizabeth E., et al. (författare)
  • Ability of Matrix Models to Explain the Past and Predict the Future of Plant Populations
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Conservation Biology. - 0888-8892 .- 1523-1739. ; 27:5, s. 968-978
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. Habilidad de los Modelos Matriciales para Explicar el Pasado y Predecir el Futuro de las Poblaciones de Plantas Resumen La incertidumbre asociada con el pronostico ecologico ha sido reconocida durante un largo tiempo pero rara vez se cuantifica su seguridad. Evaluamos que tan bien la informacion de 82 poblaciones de 20 especies de plantas a lo largo de 3 continentes explica y predice la dinamica de poblacion de las plantas. Realizamos parametros con modelos matriciales con base en estadios con datos demograficos a partir de plantas marcadas individualmente y determinamos que tan bien estos modelos pronostican el tamano de las poblaciones al menos 5 anos en el futuro. Los modelos demograficos simples pronosticaron pobremente las dinamicas de poblacion; solamente el 40% de las poblaciones observadas cayo dentro de los limites de confianza de 85% de nuestros pronosticos. Estos modelos sin embargo explicaron la dinamica de poblacion a lo largo de los anos en los que se colectaron datos; los cambios observados en el tamano de la poblacion durante el periodo de colecta de datos estuvieron positivamente correlacionados con la tasa de crecimiento de la poblacion. Asi, estos modelos son por lo menos una manera segura de cuantificar el estado de la poblacion. Los pronosticos debiles no estuvieron asociados con el numero de plantas individuales o con los anos de datos. Probamos si las tasas vitales dependian de la densidad y encontramos que existe dependencia hacia la densidad tanto positiva como negativa, sin embargo la dependencia de densidad no se asocio con el error de pronostico. El error de pronostico estuvo significativamente asociado con diferencias ambientales entre la recoleccion de datos y los periodos de pronostico. Para predecir el destino de las poblaciones se necesitan modelos mas detallados, como aquellos que proyectan los cambios probables en el ambiente y como estos cambios afectaran a la dinamica de las poblaciones. Tales modelos tan detallados no siempre son factibles. Por ello puede ser mejor tomar decisiones aversas a riesgos que esperar pronosticos precisos de los modelos.
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3.
  • Hylander, Kristoffer, et al. (författare)
  • The mechanisms causing extinction debts
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Trends in Ecology & Evolution. - 0169-5347 .- 1872-8383. ; 28:6, s. 341-346
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Extinction debts can result from many types of habitat changes involving mechanisms other than metapopulation processes. This is a fact that most recent literature on extinction debts pays little attention to. We argue that extinction debts can arise because (i) individuals survive in resistant life-cycle stages long after habitat quality change, (ii) stochastic extinctions of populations that have become small are not immediate, and (iii) metapopulations survive long after that connectivity has decreased if colonization-extinction dynamics is slow. A failure to distinguish between these different mechanisms and to simultaneously consider both the size of the extinction debt and the relaxation time hampers our understanding of how extinction debts arise and our ability to prevent ultimate extinctions.
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4.
  • Villellas, Jesus, et al. (författare)
  • Plant performance in central and northern peripheral populations of the widespread Plantago coronopus
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Ecography. - 0906-7590 .- 1600-0587. ; 36:2, s. 136-145
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Peripheral populations have long been predicted to show lower vital rates, higher demographic fluctuations, and lower densities than central populations. However, recent research has questioned the existence of clear patterns across species' ranges. To test these hypotheses, we monitored five central and six northern peripheral populations of the widespread herb Plantago coronopus along the European Atlantic coast during 5 yr. We estimated population density, and calculated mean values and temporal variability of four vital rates (survival, individual growth, fecundity and recruitment) in hundreds of plants in permanent plots. Central populations showed higher fecundity, whereas peripheral populations had higher recruitment per reproductive plant, indicating a higher overall reproductive success in the periphery. Central populations showed a marginally significant tendency for higher growth, and there were no differences between range positions in survival. Fecundity and growth were affected by intraspecific competition, and recruitment was affected by precipitation, highlighting the importance of local environmental conditions for population performance. Central and peripheral populations showed no significant differences in temporal variability of vital rates. Finally, density was significantly higher in peripheral than in central populations, in discrepancy with the abundant-centre model. Density was correlated to seedling recruitment, which would counterbalance in peripheral populations the lower fecundity and the tendency for lower growth of established plants. Such compensations among vital rates might be particularly common in widespread plants, and advise against simplistic assumptions of population performance across ranges. The whole species' life cycle should be considered, since different arrangements of vital rates are expected to maximize fitness in local environments. Our results show also the importance of discerning between geographical periphery and ecological marginality. In a context of climate-induced range shifts, these considerations are crucial for the reliability of niche-models and the management of plant peripheral populations.
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5.
  • Ågren, Jon, et al. (författare)
  • Mutualists and antagonists drive among-population variation in selection and evolution of floral display in a perennial herb
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 110:45, s. 18202-18207
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Spatial variation in the direction of selection drives the evolution of adaptive differentiation. However, few experimental studies have examined the relative importance of different environmental factors for variation in selection and evolutionary trajectories in natural populations. Here, we combine 8 y of observational data and field experiments to assess the relative importance of mutualistic and antagonistic interactions for spatial variation in selection and short-term evolution of a genetically based floral display dimorphism in the short-lived perennial herb Primula farinosa. Natural populations of this species include two floral morphs: long-scaped plants that present their flowers well above the ground and short-scaped plants with flowers positioned close to the ground. The direction and magnitude of selection on scape morph varied among populations, and so did the frequency of the short morph (median 19%, range 0-100%; n = 69 populations). A field experiment replicated at four sites demonstrated that variation in the strength of interactions with grazers and pollinators were responsible for among-population differences in relative fitness of the two morphs. Selection exerted by grazers favored the short-scaped morph, whereas pollinator-mediated selection favored the long-scaped morph. Moreover, variation in selection among natural populations was associated with differences in morph frequency change, and the experimental removal of grazers at nine sites significantly reduced the frequency of the short-scaped morph over 8 y. The results demonstrate that spatial variation in intensity of grazing and pollination produces a selection mosaic, and that changes in biotic interactions can trigger rapid genetic changes in natural plant populations.
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