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Sökning: WFRF:(Ehrlén Johan) > (2015-2019) > (2018)

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1.
  • Graae, Bente J., et al. (författare)
  • Stay or go - how topographic complexity influences alpine plant population and community responses to climate change
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Perspectives in plant ecology, evolution and systematics. - 1433-8319 .- 1618-0437. ; 30, s. 41-50
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In the face of climate change, populations have two survival options - they can remain in situ and tolerate the new climatic conditions (stay), or they can move to track their climatic niches (go). For sessile and small-stature organisms like alpine plants, staying requires broad climatic tolerances, realized niche shifts due to changing biotic interactions, acclimation through plasticity, or rapid genetic adaptation. Going, in contrast, requires good dispersal and colonization capacities. Neither the magnitude of climate change experienced locally nor the capacities required for staying/going in response to climate change are constant across landscapes, and both aspects may be strongly affected by local microclimatic variation associated with topographic complexity. We combine ideas from population and community ecology to discuss the effects of topographic complexity in the landscape on the immediate stay or go opportunities of local populations and communities, and on the selective pressures that may have shaped the stay or go capacities of the species occupying contrasting landscapes. We demonstrate, using example landscapes of different topographical complexity, how species' thermal niches could be distributed across these landscapes, and how these, in turn, may affect many population and community ecological processes that are related to adaptation or dispersal. Focusing on treeless alpine or Arctic landscapes, where temperature is expected to be a strong determinant, our theorethical framework leads to the hypothesis that populations and communities of topographically complex (rough and patchy) landscapes should be both more resistant and more resilient to climate change than those of topographically simple (flat and homogeneous) landscapes. Our theorethical framework further points to how meta-community dynamics such as mass effects in topographically complex landscapes and extinction lags in simple landscapes, may mask and delay the long-term outcomes of these landscape differences under rapidly changing climates.
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2.
  • Greiser, Caroline, et al. (författare)
  • Monthly microclimate models in a managed boreal forest landscape
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. - 0168-1923 .- 1873-2240. ; 250-251, s. 147-158
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The majority of microclimate studies have been done in topographically complex landscapes to quantify and predict how near-ground temperatures vary as a function of terrain properties. However, in forests understory temperatures can be strongly influenced also by vegetation. We quantified the relative influence of vegetation features and physiography (topography and moisture-related variables) on understory temperatures in managed boreal forests in central Sweden. We used a multivariate regression approach to relate near-ground temperature of 203 loggers over the snow-free seasons in an area of ∼16,000 km2 to remotely sensed and on-site measured variables of forest structure and physiography. We produced climate grids of monthly minimum and maximum temperatures at 25 m resolution by using only remotely sensed and mapped predictors. The quality and predictions of the models containing only remotely sensed predictors (MAP models) were compared with the models containing also on-site measured predictors (OS models). Our data suggest that during the warm season, where landscape microclimate variability is largest, canopy cover and basal area were the most important microclimatic drivers for both minimum and maximum temperatures, while physiographic drivers (mainly elevation) dominated maximum temperatures during autumn and early winter. The MAP models were able to reproduce findings from the OS models but tended to underestimate high and overestimate low temperatures. Including important microclimatic drivers, particularly soil moisture, that are yet lacking in a mapped form should improve the microclimate maps. Because of the dynamic nature of managed forests, continuous updates of mapped forest structure parameters are needed to accurately predict temperatures. Our results suggest that forest management (e.g. stand size, structure and composition) and conservation may play a key role in amplifying or impeding the effects of climate-forcing factors on near-ground temperature and may locally modify the impact of global warming.
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3.
  • Kharouba, Heather M., et al. (författare)
  • Global shifts in the phenological synchrony of species interactions over recent decades
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 115:20, s. 5211-5216
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Phenological responses to climate change (e.g., earlier leaf-out or egg hatch date) are now well documented and clearly linked to rising temperatures in recent decades. Such shifts in the phenologies of interacting species may lead to shifts in their synchrony, with cascading community and ecosystem consequences. To date, single-system studies have provided no clear picture, either finding synchrony shifts may be extremely prevalent [Mayor SJ, et al. (2017) Sci Rep 7:1902] or relatively uncommon [Iler AM, et al. (2013) Glob Chang Biol 19:2348-2359], suggesting that shifts toward asynchrony may be infrequent. A meta-analytic approach would provide insights into global trends and how they are linked to climate change. We compared phenological shifts among pairwise species interactions (e.g., predator-prey) using published long-term time-series data of phenological events from aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems across four continents since 1951 to determine whether recent climate change has led to overall shifts in synchrony. We show that the relative timing of key life cycle events of interacting species has changed significantly over the past 35 years. Further, by comparing the period before major climate change (pre-1980s) and after, we show that estimated changes in phenology and synchrony are greater in recent decades. However, there has been no consistent trend in the direction of these changes. Our findings show that there have been shifts in the timing of interacting species in recent decades; the next challenges are to improve our ability to predict the direction of change and understand the full consequences for communities and ecosystems.
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4.
  • Posledovich, Diana, et al. (författare)
  • Phenological synchrony between a butterfly and its host plants : Experimental test of effects of spring temperature
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Journal of Animal Ecology. - 0021-8790 .- 1365-2656. ; 87:1, s. 150-161
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • 1. Climate-driven changes in the relative phenologies of interacting species may potentially alter the outcome of species interactions. 2. Phenotypic plasticity is expected to be important for short-term response to new climate conditions, and differences between species in plasticity are likely to influence their temporal overlap and interaction patterns. As reaction norms of interacting species may be locally adapted, any such climate-induced change in interaction patterns may vary among localities. However, consequences of spatial variation in plastic responses for species interactions are understudied. 3. We experimentally explored how temperature affected synchrony between spring emergence of a butterfly, Anthocharis cardamines, and onset of flowering of five of its host plant species across a latitudinal gradient. We also studied potential effects on synchrony if climate-driven northward expansions would be faster in the butterflies than in host plants. Lastly, to assess how changes in synchrony influence host use we carried out an experiment to examine the importance of the developmental stage of plant reproductive structures for butterfly oviposition preference. 4. In southern locations, the butterflies were well-synchronized with the majority of their local host plant species across temperatures, suggesting that thermal plasticity in butterfly development matches oviposition to host plant development and that thermal reaction norms of insects and plants result in similar advancement of spring phenology in response to warming. In the most northern region, however, relative phenology between the butterfly and two of its host plant species changed with increased temperature. We also show that the developmental stage of plants was important for egg-laying, and conclude that temperature-induced changes in synchrony in the northernmost region are likely to lead to shifts in host use in A.cardamines if spring temperatures become warmer. Northern expansion of butterfly populations might possibly have a positive effect on keeping up with host plant phenology with more northern host plant populations. 5. Considering that the majority of insect herbivores exploit multiple plant species differing in their phenological response to spring temperatures, temperature-induced changes in synchrony might lead to shifts in host use and changes in species interactions in many temperate communities.
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5.
  • Thomann, Michel, et al. (författare)
  • Grazers affect selection on inflorescence height both directly and indirectly and effects change over time
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Ecology. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0012-9658 .- 1939-9170. ; 99:10, s. 2167-2175
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Selection mediated by one biotic agent will often be modified by the presence of other biotic interactions, and the importance of such indirect effects might change over time. We conducted an 11-yr field experiment to test the prediction that large grazers affect selection on floral display of the dimorphic herb Primula farinosa not only directly through differential grazing damage, but also indirectly by affecting vegetation height and thereby selection mediated by pollinators and seed predators. Exclusion of large grazers increased vegetation height and the strength of pollinator-mediated selection for tall inflorescences and seed-predator-mediated selection for short inflorescences. The direct effect of grazers on selection resulting from differential grazing damage to the two scape morphs showed no temporal trend. By contrast, the increase in vegetation height in exclosures over time was associated with an increase in selection mediated by pollinators and seed predators. In the early years of the experiment, the indirect effects of grazers on selection mediated by pollinators and seed predators were weak, whereas at the end of the experiment, the indirect effects were of similar magnitude as the direct effect due to differential grazing damage. The results demonstrate that the indirect effects of a selective agent can be as strong as its direct effects, and that the relative importance of direct vs. indirect effects on selection can change over time. A full understanding of the ecological processes governing variation in selection thus requires that both direct and indirect effects of biotic interactions are assessed.
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6.
  • Valdés, Alicia, et al. (författare)
  • Direct and plant trait-mediated effects of the local environmental context on butterfly oviposition patterns
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Oikos. - 0030-1299 .- 1600-0706. ; 127:6, s. 825-833
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Variation in the intensity of plant-animal interactions over different spatial scales is widespread and might strongly influence fitness and trait selection in plants. Differences in traits among plant individuals have been shown to influence variation in interaction intensities within populations, while differences in environmental factors and community composition are shown to be important for variation over larger scales. However, little is still known about the relative importance of the local environmental context vs. plant traits for the outcome of interactions within plant populations. We investigated how oviposition by the seed-predator butterfly Phengaris alcon on its host plant Gentiana pneumonanthe was related to host plant traits and to local environmental variation, as well as how oviposition patterns translated into effects on host plant fruit set. We considered the local environmental context in terms of height of the surrounding vegetation and abundance of the butterfly's second host, Myrmica ants. The probability of oviposition was higher in plants that were surrounded by lower vegetation, and both the probability of oviposition and the number of eggs increased in early-flowering and tall plants with many flowers in the three study populations. Flowering phenology, shoot height and flower production were, in turn, related to higher surrounding vegetation. Myrmica abundance was correlated with vegetation height, but had no effect on oviposition patterns. Oviposition and subsequent seed predation by the caterpillars strongly reduced host plant fruit set. Our results show that plant-animal interactions are context-dependent not only because the context influences the abundance or the behavior of the animal interactor, but also because it influences the expression of plant traits that affect the outcome of the interaction. The results also demonstrate that heterogeneity in environmental conditions at a very local scale can be important for the outcomes of interactions.
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