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Sökning: WFRF:(Donnelly Peter J.) > (2020)

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1.
  • Thompson, Robin N., et al. (författare)
  • Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences. - : The Royal Society. - 0962-8452 .- 1471-2954. ; 287:1932
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions (lockdowns) were introduced worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to implement exit strategies that relax restrictions while attempting to control the risk of a surge in cases. Mathematical modelling has played a central role in guiding interventions, but the challenge of designing optimal exit strategies in the face of ongoing transmission is unprecedented. Here, we report discussions from the Isaac Newton Institute 'Models for an exit strategy' workshop (11-15 May 2020). A diverse community of modellers who are providing evidence to governments worldwide were asked to identify the main questions that, if answered, would allow for more accurate predictions of the effects of different exit strategies. Based on these questions, we propose a roadmap to facilitate the development of reliable models to guide exit strategies. This roadmap requires a global collaborative effort from the scientific community and policymakers, and has three parts: (i) improve estimation of key epidemiological parameters; (ii) understand sources of heterogeneity in populations; and (iii) focus on requirements for data collection, particularly in low-to-middle-income countries. This will provide important information for planning exit strategies that balance socio-economic benefits with public health.
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2.
  • Craig, Wendy, et al. (författare)
  • Social Media Use and Cyber-Bullying: A Cross-National Analysis of Young People in 42 Countries
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Journal of Adolescent Health. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC. - 1054-139X .- 1879-1972. ; 66:6, s. S100-S108
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Purpose: Social media use (SMU) has become an intrinsic part of adolescent life. Negative consequences of SMU for adolescent health could include exposures to online forms of aggression. We explored age, gender, and cross-national differences in adolescents engagement in SMU, then relationships between SMU and victimization and the perpetration of cyber-bullying. Methods: We used data on young people aged 11-15 years (weighted n = 180,919 in 42 countries) who participated in the 2017-2018 Health Behaviour in School-aged Children study to describe engagement in the three types of SMU (intense, problematic, and talking with strangers online) by age and gender and then in the perpetration and victimization of cyber-bullying. Relationships between SMU and cyber-bullying outcomes were estimated using Poisson regression (weighted n = 166,647 from 42 countries). Results: Variations in SMU and cyber-bullying follow developmental and gender-based patterns across countries. In pooled analyses, engagement in SMU related to cyber-bullying victimization (adjusted relative risks = 1.14 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.10-1.19] to 1.48 [95% CI: 1.42-1.55]) and perpetration (adjusted relative risk = 1.31 [95% CI: 1.26-1.36] to 1.84 [95% CI: 1.74-1.95]). These associations were stronger for cyber-perpetration versus cyber-victimization and for girls versus boys. Problematic SMU was most strongly and consistently associated with cyber-bullying, both for victimization and perpetration. Stratified analyses showed that SMU related to cyber-victimization in 19%-45% of countries and to cyber-perpetration in 38%-86% of countries. Conclusions: Accessibility to social media and its pervasive use has led to new opportunities for online aggression. The time adolescents spend on social media, engage in problematic use, and talk to strangers online each relate to cyber-bullying and merit public health intervention. Problematic use of social media poses the strongest and most consistent risk. (C) 2020 Published by Elsevier Inc. on behalf of Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine.
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3.
  • Forchini, Giovanni, et al. (författare)
  • Report 28 : Excess non-COVID-19 deaths in England and Wales between 29th February and 5th June 2020
  • 2020
  • Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • There were 189,403 deaths from any cause reported in England from 29th February to 5th June 2020 inclusive, and 11,278 all-cause deaths in Wales over the same period. Of those deaths, 44,736 (23.6%) registered COVID-19 on the death certificate in England, and 2,294 (20.3%) in Wales, while 144,667 (76.4%) were not recorded as having been due to COVID-19 in England, and 8,984 (79.7%) in Wales. However, it could be that some of the ‘non-COVID-19’ deaths have in fact also been caused by COVID-19, either as the direct cause of death, or indirectly through provisions for the pandemic impeding access to care for other conditions. There is uncertainty in how many of the non-COVID-19 deaths were directly or indirectly caused by the pandemic. We estimated the excess deaths that were not recorded as associated with COVID-19 in the death certificate (excess non-COVID-19 deaths) as the deaths for which COVID-19 was not reported as the cause, compared to those we would have expected to occur had the pandemic not happened. Expected deaths were forecast with an analysis of historic trends in deaths between 2010 and April 2020 using data by the Office of National Statistics and a statistical time series model.According to the model, we expected 136,294 (95% CI 133,882 - 138,696) deaths in England, and 8,983 (CI 8,051 - 9,904) in Wales over this period, significantly fewer than the number of deaths reported. This means that there were 8,983 (95% CI 5,971 - 10,785) total excess non-COVID-19 deaths in England. For every 100 COVID-19 deaths during the period from 29th February to 5th June 2020 there were 19 (95% CI 13 – 24) cumulative excess non-COVID-19 deaths. The proportion of cumulative excess non-COVID-19 deaths of all reported deaths during this period was 4.4% (95% CI 3.2% - 5.7%) in England, with small regional variations. Excess deaths were highest in the South East at 2,213 (95% CI 327 - 4,047) and in London at 1,937 (95% CI 896 - 3,010), respectively. There is no evidence of non-COVID-19 excess deaths in Wales. Excess non-COVID-19 deaths are occurring in individuals aged 85+ and 75-84, and those aged 45-64. For those aged 85+, excess non-COVID-19 deaths are driven by females, with 6,115 (95% CI 206 – 11,795) deaths in total but no significant findings for males of those ages. For ages 75-84, excess non-COVID-19 deaths are nearly double for females at 2,070 (95% CI 393 – 3,887) than for males at 1,336 (95% CI 938 – 1,710), while for ages 45-64, excess non-COVID-19 deaths for females are at 347 (95% CI 90 – 603), almost half those of males at 681 (95% CI 282 – 1,091). There is no evidence of excess non-COVID-19 deaths for ages 65-74, and those below 45.Excess non-COVID-19 deaths could be due to non-reporting of COVID-19 on the death certificate or an increase in mortality for non-COVID-19 conditions. Severely ill patients may have been unable to access life-saving emergency treatment because of constraints in healthcare provision, or because they avoided seeking care due to concern over hospital-acquired infection, or to avoid burdening healthcare providers. Further research into reasons for excess non-COVID-19 deaths is warranted.This report accompanies the weekly update of excess death estimates on the Github website of the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute of Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA) (https://j-idea.github.io/ONSdeaths/) which has been set up to be regularly updated until June 2022. 
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