| 1. |
- Rochman, D., et al.
(författare)
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A Bayesian Monte Carlo method for fission yield covariance information
- 2016
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Ingår i: Annals of Nuclear Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0306-4549 .- 1873-2100. ; 95, s. 125-134
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The present work proposes a Bayesian method to combine theoretical fission yields with a set of reference data. These two sources of information are merged using a Monte Carlo process, and leads to a so-called Bayesian Monte Carlo update. Examples are presented for the independent fission yields of four major actinides, using the GEF code as a source of theoretical calculations and an evaluated library of fission yields for the reference data. The impact of the updated fission yields and their covariances is shown for two distinct applications: a UO2 pincell with burn-up up to 40 GWD/tHM and decay heat calculations of a thermal neutron pulse on U-235 and Pu-239.
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| 2. |
- Alhassan, Erwin, et al.
(författare)
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On the use of integral experiments for uncertainty reduction of reactor macroscopic parameters within the TMC methodology
- 2016
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Ingår i: Progress in nuclear energy (New series). - : Elsevier BV. - 0149-1970 .- 1878-4224. ; 88, s. 43-52
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The current nuclear data uncertainties observed in reactor safety parameters for some nuclides call for safety concerns especially with respect to the design of GEN-IV reactors and must therefore be reduced significantly. In this work, uncertainty reduction using criticality benchmark experiments within the Total Monte Carlo methodology is presented. Random nuclear data libraries generated are processed and used to analyze a set of criticality benchmarks. Since the calculated results for each random nuclear data used are different, an algorithm was used to select (or assign weights to) the libraries which give a good description of experimental data for the analyses of the benchmarks. The selected or weighted libraries were then used to analyze the ELECTRA reactor. By using random nuclear data libraries constrained with only differential experimental data as our prior, the uncertainties observed were further reduced by constraining the files with integral experimental data to obtain a posteriori uncertainties on the k(eff). Two approaches are presented and compared: a binary accept/reject and a method of assigning file weights based on the likelihood function. Significant reductions in (PU)-P-239 and Pb-208 nuclear data uncertainties in the k(eff) were observed after implementing the two methods with some criticality benchmarks for the ELELIRA reactor. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 3. |
- Alhassan, Erwin, et al.
(författare)
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Selecting benchmarks for reactor simulations : an application to a Lead Fast Reactor
- 2016
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Ingår i: Annals of Nuclear Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0306-4549 .- 1873-2100. ; 96, s. 158-169
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- For several decades reactor design has been supported by computer codes for the investigation of reactor behavior under both steady state and transient conditions. The use of computer codes to simulate reactor behavior enables the investigation of various safety scenarios saving time and cost. There has been an increase in the development of in-house (local) codes by various research groups in recent times for preliminary design of specific or targeted nuclear reactor applications. These codes must be validated and calibrated against experimental benchmark data with their evolution and improvements. Given the large number of benchmarks available, selecting these benchmarks for reactor calculations and validation of simulation codes for specific or target applications can be rather tedious and difficult. In the past, the traditional approach based on expert judgement using information provided in various handbooks, has been used for the selection of these benchmarks. This approach has been criticized because it introduces a user bias into the selection process. This paper presents a method for selecting these benchmarks for reactor calculations for specific reactor applications based on the Total Monte Carlo (TMC) method. First, nuclear model parameters are randomly sampled within a given probability distribution and a large set of random nuclear data files are produced using the TALYS code system. These files are processed and used to analyze a target reactor system and a set of criticality benchmarks. Similarity between the target reactor system and one or several benchmarks is quantified using a similarity index. The method has been applied to the European Lead Cooled Reactor (ELECTRA) and a set of plutonium and lead sensitive criticality benchmarks using the effective multiplication factor (keffkeff). From the study, strong similarity were observed in the keffkeff between ELECTRA and some plutonium and lead sensitive criticality benchmarks. Also, for validation purposes, simulation results for a list of selected criticality benchmarks simulated with the MCNPX and SERPENT codes using different nuclear data libraries have been compared with experimentally measured benchmark keff values.
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| 4. |
- Alhassan, Erwin, et al.
(författare)
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Uncertainty analysis of Lead cross sections on reactor safety for ELECTRA
- 2016
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Ingår i: SNA + MC 2013 - Joint International Conference on Supercomputing in Nuclear Applications + Monte Carlo. - Les Ulis, France : EDP Sciences.
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Total Monte Carlo (TMC) method was used in this study to assess the impact of Pb-206, 207 and 208 nucleardata uncertainties on k-eff , beta-eff, coolant temperature coefficient, the coolant void worth for the ELECTRA reactor. Relatively large uncertainties were observed in the k-eff and the coolant void worth for all the isotopes with significant contribution coming from Pb-208 nuclear data. The large Pb-208 nuclear data uncertainty observed was further investigated by studying the impact of partial channels on the k-eff and beta-eff. Various sections of ENDF file: elasticscattering (n,el), inelastic scattering (n,inl), neutron capture (n,gamma), (n,2n), resonance parameters and the angular distribution were varied randomly and distributions in k-eff and beta-eff obtained. The dominant contributions to the uncertainty in the k-eff from Pb-208 came from uncertainties in the resonance parameters; however, elastic scattering cross section and the angular distribution also had significant impact. The impact of nuclear data uncertainties on the beta-eff was observed to be small.
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Helgesson, Petter, 1986-, et al.
(författare)
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Sampling of systematic errors to estimate likelihood weights in nuclear data uncertainty propagation
- 2016
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Ingår i: Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research Section A. - : Elsevier. - 0168-9002 .- 1872-9576. ; 807, s. 137-149
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In methodologies for nuclear data (ND) uncertainty assessment and propagation based on random sampling, likelihood weights can be used to infer experimental information into the distributions for the ND. As the included number of correlated experimental points grows large, the computational time for the matrix inversion involved in obtaining the likelihood can become a practical problem. There are also other problems related to the conventional computation of the likelihood, e.g., the assumption that all experimental uncertainties are Gaussian. In this study, a way to estimate the likelihood which avoids matrix inversion is investigated; instead, the experimental correlations are included by sampling of systematic errors. It is shown that the model underlying the sampling methodology (using univariate normal distributions for random and systematic errors) implies a multivariate Gaussian for the experimental points (i.e., the conventional model). It is also shown that the likelihood estimates obtained through sampling of systematic errors approach the likelihood obtained with matrix inversion as the sample size for the systematic errors grows large. In studied practical cases, it is seen that the estimates for the likelihood weights converge impractically slowly with the sample size, compared to matrix inversion. The computational time is estimated to be greater than for matrix inversion in cases with more experimental points, too. Hence, the sampling of systematic errors has little potential to compete with matrix inversion in cases where the latter is applicable. Nevertheless, the underlying model and the likelihood estimates can be easier to intuitively interpret than the conventional model and the likelihood function involving the inverted covariance matrix. Therefore, this work can both have pedagogical value and be used to help motivating the conventional assumption of a multivariate Gaussian for experimental data. The sampling of systematic errors could also be used in cases where the experimental uncertainties are not Gaussian, and for other purposes than to compute the likelihood, e.g., to produce random experimental data sets for a more direct use in ND evaluation.
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| 8. |
- Rochman, D., et al.
(författare)
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Nuclear data uncertainty for criticality-safety : Monte Carlo vs. linear perturbation
- 2016
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Ingår i: Annals of Nuclear Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0306-4549 .- 1873-2100. ; 92, s. 150-160
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This work is presenting a comparison of results for different methods of uncertainty propagation due to nuclear data for 330 criticality-safety benchmarks. Covariance information is propagated to key using either Monte Carlo methods (NUSS: based on existing nuclear data covariances, and TMC: based on reaction model parameters) or sensitivity calculations from MCNP6 coupled with nuclear data covariances. We are showing that all three methods are globally equivalent for criticality calculations considering the two first moments of a distribution (average and standard deviation), but the Monte Carlo methods lead to actual probability distributions, where the third moment (skewness) should not be ignored for safety assessments.
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| 9. |
- Rochman, D., et al.
(författare)
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Re-evaluation of the thermal neutron capture cross section of Nd-147
- 2016
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Ingår i: Annals of Nuclear Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0306-4549 .- 1873-2100. ; 94, s. 612-617
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper we are proposing a re-evaluation of the thermal-neutron induced capture cross section of Nd-147. A unique measurement exists from which this cross section was calculated in 1974. This original calculation is based on an assumed value for a specific gamma-ray fraction (called F-2), taken from the neighboring nucleus Nd-145. With the availability of reaction codes such as TALYS, such fraction can nowadays be calculated using specific reaction models and parameters. The new value of F-2 indicates a decrease of the thermal cross section by 45%, leading to 243 barns, instead of the 440 barns previously reported. This new cross section impacts the calculation of the number density for the well-known burn-up indicator Nd-148, but as shown, the change is close to the usual experimental uncertainties for the 148Nd number densities, thus having a limited impact on burn-up calculation.
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| 10. |
- Sjöstrand, Henrik, 1978-, et al.
(författare)
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Propagation Of Nuclear Data Uncertainties For Fusion Power Measurements
- 2016
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Fusion plasmas produce neutrons and by measuring the neutron emission the fusion power can be inferred. Accurate neutron yield measurements are paramount for the safe and efficient operation of fusion experiments and, eventually, fusion power plants.Neutron measurements are an essential part of the diagnostic system at large fusion machines such as JET and ITER. At JET, a system of activation foils provides the absolute calibration for the neutron yield determination. The activation system uses the property of certain nuclei to emit radiation after being excited by neutron reactions. A sample of suitable nuclei is placed in the neutron flux close to the plasma and after irradiation the induced radiation is measured. Knowing the neutron activation cross section one can calculate the time-integrated neutron flux at the sample position. To relate the local flux to the total neutron yield, the spatial flux response has to be identified. This describes how the local neutron emission affects the flux at the detector. The required spatial flux response is commonly determined using neutron transport codes, e.g., MCNP.Nuclear data is used as input both in the calculation of the spatial flux response and when the flux at the irradiation site is inferred. Consequently, high quality nuclear data is essential for the proper determination of the neutron yield and fusion power. However, uncertainties due to nuclear data are generally not fully taken into account in today’s uncertainty analysis for neutron yield calibrations using activation foils. In this paper, the neutron yield uncertainty due to nuclear data is investigated using the so-called Total Monte Carlo Method. The work is performed using a detailed MCNP model of JET fusion machine. In this work the uncertainties due to the cross sections and angular distributions in JET structural materials, as well as the activation cross sections, are analyzed. It is shown that a significant contribution to the neutron yield uncertainty can come from uncertainties in the nuclear data.
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