| 1. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 2. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 3. |
- Vos, Theo, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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| 4. |
- Louis, Rohan E., et al.
(author)
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Small-scale magnetic flux emergence in a sunspot light bridge
- 2015
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In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 584
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Context: Light bridges are convective intrusions in sunspots that often show enhanced chromospheric activity.Aims: We seek to determine the nature of flux emergence in a light bridge and the processes related to its evolution in the solar atmosphere.Methods: We analyse a sequence of high-resolution spectropolarimetric observations of a sunspot taken at the Swedish 1-m Solar Telescope. The data consist of spectral scans of the photospheric Fe I line pair at 630 nm and the chromospheric Ca II 854.2 nm line. Bisectors were used to construct Dopplergrams from the Fe I 630.15 nm measurements. We employed LTE and non-LTE inversions to derive maps of physical parameters in the photosphere and chromosphere, respectively.Results: We observe the onset of blueshifts of about 2 km s(-1) near the entrance of a granular light bridge on the limbward side of the spot. The blueshifts lie immediately next to a strongly redshifted patch that appeared six minutes earlier. Both patches can be seen for 25 min until the end of the sequence. The blueshifts coincide with an elongated emerging granule, while the redshifts appear at the end of the granule. In the photosphere, the development of the blueshifts is accompanied by a simultaneous increase in field strength of about 400 G. The field inclination increases by some 25 degrees, becoming nearly horizontal. At the position of the redshifts, the magnetic field is equally horizontal but of opposite polarity. An intense brightening is seen in the Ca II filtergrams over the blueshifts and redshifts, about 17 min after their detection in the photosphere. The brightening is due to emission in the blue wing of the Ca II 854.2 nm line, close to its knee. Non-LTE inversions reveal that this kind of asymmetric emission is caused by a temperature enhancement of similar to 700 K between -5.0 <= log tau <= -3.0 and a blueshift of 3 km s(-1) at log tau = - 2.3 that decreases to zero at log tau = - 6.0Conclusions: The photospheric blueshifts and redshifts observed in a granular light bridge seem to be caused by the emergence of a small-scale, flat Omega-loop with highly inclined footpoints of opposite polarity that brings new magnetic field to the surface. The gas motions detected in the two footpoints are reminiscent of a siphon flow. The rising loop is probably confined to the lower atmosphere by the overlying sunspot magnetic field and the interaction between the two flux systems may be responsible for temperature enhancements in the upper photosphere/lower chromosphere. This is the first time that magnetic flux is observed to emerge in the strongly magnetised environment of sunspots, pushed upwards by the convective flows of a granular light bridge.
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| 5. |
- Raghavan, Maanasa, et al.
(author)
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Genomic evidence for the Pleistocene and recent population history of Native Americans
- 2015
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In: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 349:6250
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Howand when the Americas were populated remains contentious. Using ancient and modern genome-wide data, we found that the ancestors of all present-day Native Americans, including Athabascans and Amerindians, entered the Americas as a single migration wave from Siberia no earlier than 23 thousand years ago (ka) and after no more than an 8000-year isolation period in Beringia. After their arrival to the Americas, ancestral Native Americans diversified into two basal genetic branches around 13 ka, one that is now dispersed across North and South America and the other restricted to North America. Subsequent gene flow resulted in some Native Americans sharing ancestry with present-day East Asians (including Siberians) and, more distantly, Australo-Melanesians. Putative "Paleoamerican" relict populations, including the historical Mexican Pericues and South American Fuego-Patagonians, are not directly related to modern Australo-Melanesians as suggested by the Paleoamerican Model.
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| 6. |
- Suau-Sanchez, Pere, et al.
(author)
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Regulatory airport classification in the US: The role of international markets
- 2015
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In: Transport Policy. - : Elsevier. - 0967-070X .- 1879-310X. ; 37, s. 157-166
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In a context of debate over the future of the US Federal Aviation Administrations (FAA) funding model, this paper revisits the current system of airport classification used for the allocation of public funding for capacity developments. Previous papers have already addressed the limitations of the FAAs uni-dimensional method, and proposed new approaches that take into account the two dimensions of "hubbing" activity, i.e., traffic generation and connectivity. However, these studies are biased by the lack of detailed demand data on international connections. Using an MIDT dataset comprising a sample of domestic and international markets served by US airports during the first quarter of 2013, this paper aims at providing a full picture on the pitfalls of the existing FAA method, as well as addressing the impact of international connectivity in characterising the airports hubbing profiles. Hierarchical clustering is used to provide alternative criteria for hub classification within the context of US National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems (NPIAS). This new typology of primary US airports can help to optimize AIP funding by allowing for further differentiation in the FAA allocation criteria.
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| 7. |
- Tovar, Beatriz, et al.
(author)
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Classifying Ports for Efficiency Benchmarking: A Review and a Frontier-based Clustering Approach
- 2015
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In: Transport reviews. - : Taylor and Francis (Routledge): SSH Titles. - 0144-1647 .- 1464-5327. ; 35:3, s. 378-400
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Port efficiency and port clustering are two aspects that have received different degrees of attention in the existing literature. While the actual estimation of port efficiency has been extensively studied, the existing literature has paid little attention to developing robust methodologies for port classification. In this paper, we review the literature on classification methods for port efficiency, and present an approach that combines stochastic frontier analysis, clustering and self-organized maps (SOM). Cluster methodologies that build on the estimated cost function parameters could group ports into performance metrics categories. This helps when setting improvement targets for ports as a function of their specific cluster. The methodology is applied to a database of Spanish port authorities. The dendrogram features three clusters and five outlier Spanish Port Authorities. SOM are employed to track the temporal evolution of Spanish Port Authorities that are of special interest for some reasons (i.e. outliers). Results show that use of a combination of cost frontier and cluster methods to define robust port typology and SOMs, jointly or in isolation, offers useful information to the decision-makers.
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| 8. |
- Tovar, Beatriz, et al.
(author)
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Container port competitiveness and connectivity: The Canary Islands main ports Case
- 2015
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In: Transport Policy. - : Elsevier. - 0967-070X .- 1879-310X. ; 38, s. 40-51
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Canary Islands economy is extremely dependent on sea transport. Since accessibility and connectivity are major determinants of international transport costs, the analysis of their main ports connectivity is crucial for keeping costs under control. Since different port authorities manage the major ports of the Canary Islands, they could be tempted to compete for transshipment cargoes, instead of working together to facilitate supply chain integration that would increase their competitive standing. The aim of the paper is twofold. First, the infrastructure and superstructure endowment of the main Canarian ports and their accessibility, by evaluating site and situation factors, is documented. Secondly, the connectivity of the main Canarian ports is assessed by means of graph theory. This provides important measures that define a ports competitiveness, and its potential to achieve or keep regional or global hub status, and also to follow its evolution. A brief review of papers measuring port connectivity based on graph theory is included to illustrate the current approaches in port network analysis, and to justify our methodological framework. A sub-network of 53 ports directly related with Las Palmas and Tenerife ports has been selected for this purpose. Our findings are mainly related to the connections among the nodes in the sample network, and to the position that the targeted ports hold. Additionally, some policy recommendations, regarding how to improve the connectivity and competitiveness of the Canarian ports, are also enumerated. Previous analysis indicates that, at present, the Las Palmas port is the only regional hub in the Canaries. Both Canarian port authorities should differentiate themselves by specializing in certain valued added services and increasing traffic in these services. This would avoid the danger of a destructive competition between them to attract transit traffic. In summary they should be proactive in maintaining and improving the main Canarian ports connectivity.
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