| 11. |
- Botvinik-Nezer, Rotem, et al.
(author)
-
Variability in the analysis of a single neuroimaging dataset by many teams
- 2020
-
In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 582, s. 84-88
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Data analysis workflows in many scientific domains have become increasingly complex and flexible. Here we assess the effect of this flexibility on the results of functional magnetic resonance imaging by asking 70 independent teams to analyse the same dataset, testing the same 9 ex-ante hypotheses(1). The flexibility of analytical approaches is exemplified by the fact that no two teams chose identical workflows to analyse the data. This flexibility resulted in sizeable variation in the results of hypothesis tests, even for teams whose statistical maps were highly correlated at intermediate stages of the analysis pipeline. Variation in reported results was related to several aspects of analysis methodology. Notably, a meta-analytical approach that aggregated information across teams yielded a significant consensus in activated regions. Furthermore, prediction markets of researchers in the field revealed an overestimation of the likelihood of significant findings, even by researchers with direct knowledge of the dataset(2-5). Our findings show that analytical flexibility can have substantial effects on scientific conclusions, and identify factors that may be related to variability in the analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging. The results emphasize the importance of validating and sharing complex analysis workflows, and demonstrate the need for performing and reporting multiple analyses of the same data. Potential approaches that could be used to mitigate issues related to analytical variability are discussed. The results obtained by seventy different teams analysing the same functional magnetic resonance imaging dataset show substantial variation, highlighting the influence of analytical choices and the importance of sharing workflows publicly and performing multiple analyses.
|
|
| 12. |
- Brout, Dillon, et al.
(author)
-
The Pantheon+ analysis : cosmological constraints
- 2022
-
In: Astrophysical Journal. - : Institute of Physics (IOP). - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 938:2
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present constraints on cosmological parameters from the Pantheon+ analysis of 1701 light curves of 1550 distinct Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) ranging in redshift from z = 0.001 to 2.26. This work features an increased sample size from the addition of multiple cross-calibrated photometric systems of SNe covering an increased redshift span, and improved treatments of systematic uncertainties in comparison to the original Pantheon analysis, which together result in a factor of 2 improvement in cosmological constraining power. For a flat ΛCDM model, we find ΩM = 0.334 ± 0.018 from SNe Ia alone. For a flat w0CDM model, we measure w0 = −0.90 ± 0.14 from SNe Ia alone, H0 = 73.5 ± 1.1 km s−1 Mpc−1 when including the Cepheid host distances and covariance (SH0ES), and w0 = -0.978-+0.0310.024 when combining the SN likelihood with Planck constraints from the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO); both w0 values are consistent with a cosmological constant. We also present the most precise measurements to date on the evolution of dark energy in a flat w0waCDM universe, and measure wa = -0.1-+2.00.9 from Pantheon+ SNe Ia alone, H0 = 73.3 ± 1.1 km s−1 Mpc−1 when including SH0ES Cepheid distances, and wa = -0.65-+0.320.28 when combining Pantheon+ SNe Ia with CMB and BAO data. Finally, we find that systematic uncertainties in the use of SNe Ia along the distance ladder comprise less than one-third of the total uncertainty in the measurement of H0 and cannot explain the present “Hubble tension” between local measurements and early universe predictions from the cosmological model.
|
|
| 13. |
- Carleo, Ilaria, et al.
(author)
-
The Multiplanet System TOI-421*
- 2020
-
In: Astronomical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 1538-3881 .- 0004-6256. ; 160:3
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We report the discovery of a warm Neptune and a hot sub-Neptune transiting TOI-421 (BD-14 1137, TIC 94986319), a bright (V = 9.9) G9 dwarf star in a visual binary system observed by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) space mission in Sectors 5 and 6. We performed ground-based follow-up observations-comprised of Las Cumbres Observatory Global Telescope transit photometry, NIRC2 adaptive optics imaging, and FIbre-fed Echelle Spectrograph, CORALIE, High Accuracy Radial velocity Planet Searcher, High Resolution echelle Spectrometer, and Planet Finder Spectrograph high-precision Doppler measurements-and confirmed the planetary nature of the 16 day transiting candidate announced by the TESS team. We discovered an additional radial velocity signal with a period of five days induced by the presence of a second planet in the system, which we also found to transit its host star. We found that the inner mini-Neptune, TOI-421 b, has an orbital period of P-b = 5.19672 +/- 0.00049 days, a mass of M-b = 7.17 +/- 0.66 M-circle plus, and a radius of R-b = R-circle plus, whereas the outer warm Neptune, TOI-421 c, has a period of P-c = 16.06819 +/- 0.00035 days, a mass of M-c = 16.42(-1.04)(+1.06)M(circle plus), a radius of R-c = 5.09(-0.15)(+0.16)R(circle plus), and a density of rho(c) = 0.685(-0.072)(+0.080) cm(-3). With its characteristics, the outer planet (rho(c) = 0.685(-0.0072)(+0.080) cm(-3)) is placed in the intriguing class of the super-puffy mini-Neptunes. TOI-421 b and TOI-421 c are found to be well-suited for atmospheric characterization. Our atmospheric simulations predict significant Ly alpha transit absorption, due to strong hydrogen escape in both planets, as well as the presence of detectable CH4 in the atmosphere of TOI-421 c if equilibrium chemistry is assumed.
|
|
| 14. |
- Falster, Daniel, et al.
(author)
-
AusTraits, a curated plant trait database for the Australian flora
- 2021
-
In: Scientific Data. - : Nature Portfolio. - 2052-4463. ; 8:1
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We introduce the AusTraits database - a compilation of values of plant traits for taxa in the Australian flora (hereafter AusTraits). AusTraits synthesises data on 448 traits across 28,640 taxa from field campaigns, published literature, taxonomic monographs, and individual taxon descriptions. Traits vary in scope from physiological measures of performance (e.g. photosynthetic gas exchange, water-use efficiency) to morphological attributes (e.g. leaf area, seed mass, plant height) which link to aspects of ecological variation. AusTraits contains curated and harmonised individual- and species-level measurements coupled to, where available, contextual information on site properties and experimental conditions. This article provides information on version 3.0.2 of AusTraits which contains data for 997,808 trait-by-taxon combinations. We envision AusTraits as an ongoing collaborative initiative for easily archiving and sharing trait data, which also provides a template for other national or regional initiatives globally to fill persistent gaps in trait knowledge.
|
|
| 15. |
- Howe, LJ, et al.
(author)
-
Within-sibship genome-wide association analyses decrease bias in estimates of direct genetic effects
- 2022
-
In: Nature genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-1718 .- 1061-4036. ; 54:65, s. 581-
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Estimates from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of unrelated individuals capture effects of inherited variation (direct effects), demography (population stratification, assortative mating) and relatives (indirect genetic effects). Family-based GWAS designs can control for demographic and indirect genetic effects, but large-scale family datasets have been lacking. We combined data from 178,086 siblings from 19 cohorts to generate population (between-family) and within-sibship (within-family) GWAS estimates for 25 phenotypes. Within-sibship GWAS estimates were smaller than population estimates for height, educational attainment, age at first birth, number of children, cognitive ability, depressive symptoms and smoking. Some differences were observed in downstream SNP heritability, genetic correlations and Mendelian randomization analyses. For example, the within-sibship genetic correlation between educational attainment and body mass index attenuated towards zero. In contrast, analyses of most molecular phenotypes (for example, low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol) were generally consistent. We also found within-sibship evidence of polygenic adaptation on taller height. Here, we illustrate the importance of family-based GWAS data for phenotypes influenced by demographic and indirect genetic effects.
|
|
| 16. |
- Lembrechts, Jonas J., et al.
(author)
-
SoilTemp : A global database of near-surface temperature
- 2020
-
In: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 26:11, s. 6616-6629
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Current analyses and predictions of spatially explicit patterns and processes in ecology most often rely on climate data interpolated from standardized weather stations. This interpolated climate data represents long-term average thermal conditions at coarse spatial resolutions only. Hence, many climate-forcing factors that operate at fine spatiotemporal resolutions are overlooked. This is particularly important in relation to effects of observation height (e.g. vegetation, snow and soil characteristics) and in habitats varying in their exposure to radiation, moisture and wind (e.g. topography, radiative forcing or cold-air pooling). Since organisms living close to the ground relate more strongly to these microclimatic conditions than to free-air temperatures, microclimatic ground and near-surface data are needed to provide realistic forecasts of the fate of such organisms under anthropogenic climate change, as well as of the functioning of the ecosystems they live in. To fill this critical gap, we highlight a call for temperature time series submissions to SoilTemp, a geospatial database initiative compiling soil and near-surface temperature data from all over the world. Currently, this database contains time series from 7,538 temperature sensors from 51 countries across all key biomes. The database will pave the way toward an improved global understanding of microclimate and bridge the gap between the available climate data and the climate at fine spatiotemporal resolutions relevant to most organisms and ecosystem processes.
|
|
| 17. |
- Pugh, Thomas A.M., et al.
(author)
-
Understanding the uncertainty in global forest carbon turnover
- 2020
-
In: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4170 .- 1726-4189. ; 17:15, s. 3961-3989
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The length of time that carbon remains in forest biomass is one of the largest uncertainties in the global carbon cycle, with both recent historical baselines and future responses to environmental change poorly constrained by available observations. In the absence of large-scale observations, models used for global assessments tend to fall back on simplified assumptions of the turnover rates of biomass and soil carbon pools. In this study, the biomass carbon turnover times calculated by an ensemble of contemporary terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) are analysed to assess their current capability to accurately estimate biomass carbon turnover times in forests and how these times are anticipated to change in the future. Modelled baseline 1985-2014 global average forest biomass turnover times vary from 12.2 to 23.5 years between TBMs. TBM differences in phenological processes, which control allocation to, and turnover rate of, leaves and fine roots, are as important as tree mortality with regard to explaining the variation in total turnover among TBMs. The different governing mechanisms exhibited by each TBM result in a wide range of plausible turnover time projections for the end of the century. Based on these simulations, it is not possible to draw robust conclusions regarding likely future changes in turnover time, and thus biomass change, for different regions. Both spatial and temporal uncertainty in turnover time are strongly linked to model assumptions concerning plant functional type distributions and their controls. Thirteen model-based hypotheses of controls on turnover time are identified, along with recommendations for pragmatic steps to test them using existing and novel observations. Efforts to resolve uncertainty in turnover time, and thus its impacts on the future evolution of biomass carbon stocks across the world's forests, will need to address both mortality and establishment components of forest demography, as well as allocation of carbon to woody versus non-woody biomass growth.
|
|
| 18. |
- Qiu, Chunjing, et al.
(author)
-
A strong mitigation scenario maintains climate neutrality of northern peatlands
- 2022
-
In: One Earth. - : Elsevier BV. - 2590-3330 .- 2590-3322. ; 5:1, s. 86-97
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Northern peatlands store 300–600 Pg C, of which approximately half are underlain by permafrost. Climate warming and, in some regions, soil drying from enhanced evaporation are progressively threatening this large carbon stock. Here, we assess future CO2 and CH4 fluxes from northern peatlands using five land surface models that explicitly include representation of peatland processes. Under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, northern peatlands are projected to remain a net sink of CO2 and climate neutral for the next three centuries. A shift to a net CO2 source and a substantial increase in CH4 emissions are projected under RCP8.5, which could exacerbate global warming by 0.21°C (range, 0.09–0.49°C) by the year 2300. The true warming impact of peatlands might be higher owing to processes not simulated by the models and direct anthropogenic disturbance. Our study highlights the importance of understanding how future warming might trigger high carbon losses from northern peatlands.
|
|
| 19. |
- Senapathi, Deepa, et al.
(author)
-
Wild insect diversity increases inter-annual stability in global crop pollinator communities
- 2021
-
In: Royal Society of London. Proceedings B. Biological Sciences. - : The Royal Society. - 1471-2954 .- 0962-8452. ; 288:1947
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- While an increasing number of studies indicate that the range, diversity and abundance of many wild pollinators has declined, the global area of pollinator-dependent crops has significantly increased over the last few decades. Crop pollination studies to date have mainly focused on either identifying different guilds pollinating various crops, or on factors driving spatial changes and turnover observed in these communities. The mechanisms driving temporal stability for ecosystem functioning and services, however, remain poorly understood. Our study quantifies temporal variability observed in crop pollinators in 21 different crops across multiple years at a global scale. Using data from 43 studies from six continents, we show that (i) higher pollinator diversity confers greater inter-annual stability in pollinator communities, (ii) temporal variation observed in pollinator abundance is primarily driven by the three-most dominant species, and (iii) crops in tropical regions demonstrate higher inter-annual variability in pollinator species richness than crops in temperate regions. We highlight the importance of recognizing wild pollinator diversity in agricultural landscapes to stabilize pollinator persistence across years to protect both biodiversity and crop pollination services. Short-term agricultural management practices aimed at dominant species for stabilizing pollination services need to be considered alongside longer term conservation goals focussed on maintaining and facilitating biodiversity to confer ecological stability.
|
|
| 20. |
- Aamer, Aysha, et al.
(author)
-
A precursor plateau and pre-maximum [O ii] emission in the superluminous SN2019szu : a pulsational pair-instability candidate
- 2023
-
In: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 527:4, s. 11970-11995
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present a detailed study on SN2019szu, a Type I superluminous supernova at z = 0.213 that displayed unique photometric and spectroscopic properties. Pan-STARRS and ZTF forced photometry show a pre-explosion plateau lasting ∼40 d. Unlike other SLSNe that show decreasing photospheric temperatures with time, the optical colours show an apparent temperature increase from ∼15 000 to ∼20 000 K over the first 70 d, likely caused by an additional pseudo-continuum in the spectrum. Remarkably, the spectrum displays a forbidden emission line (likely attributed to λλ7320,7330) visible 16 d before maximum light, inconsistent with an apparently compact photosphere. This identification is further strengthened by the appearances of [O III] λλ4959, 5007, and [O III] λ4363 seen in the spectrum. Comparing with nebular spectral models, we find that the oxygen line fluxes and ratios can be reproduced with ∼0.25 M⊙ of oxygen-rich material with a density of ∼10−15 g cm−3. The low density suggests a circumstellar origin, but the early onset of the emission lines requires that this material was ejected within the final months before the terminal explosion, consistent with the timing of the precursor plateau. Interaction with denser material closer to the explosion likely produced the pseudo-continuum bluewards of ∼5500 Å. We suggest that this event is one of the best candidates to date for a pulsational pair-instability ejection, with early pulses providing the low density material needed for the formation of the forbidden emission line, and collisions between the final shells of ejected material producing the pre-explosion plateau.
|
|
